There is no happier corner of the fixed income universe than junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), which have been soaring like a bat out of hell recently.
Average yields for the bond class most sensitive to the economy have collapsed from 18% to near an all-time low of 6.68%, a scant 483 basis points over ten year Treasury bonds (TLT).
If you look at the chart for (JNK) it virtually tracks the S&P 500 one for one, with less volatility, and therein lies the problem. When bonds act like stocks, what happens to bonds when stocks go down?
That is a particularly pertinent question these days as stocks have more than doubled from the bottom, and are approaching grotesquely overbought levels. After a move in the S&P 500 Index?s average multiple from 9 to 19, with 20 a possible top, are junk bonds peaking out here as well?
?A 483 basis point premium does not sound like much compared to the historical range. It is pricing in the near absence of risk in this paper, as if they will live forever? When did I last see this movie? 2006? 2007? Alas, how short memories have become.
It might be worth taking some money off the table here, and taking the hit in the cash flow in your portfolio.
Lowering your beta is prudent, especially if we are about to move from a 'RISK ON' to a 'RISK OFF' world for more than a day.
Do you really want to wait for the music to stop playing before you grab a chair?
Time to Grab a Chair Before the Music Stops Playing?
One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California announced that they had received their largest private donation in history.
As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and, oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news.
David and Dana Dornsife gave $200 million to the downtown Los Angeles home of the Trojans. The money will be used to fund the College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, which will be renamed after them.
Dornsife made his fortune as the owner of Herrick Corp., a Stockton based maker of the prefabricated steel that was used to build many of the skyscrapers in the center of Los Angeles.
The gift tops the university's previous largest gift from George Lucas, of Star Wars fame, who in 2006 contributed $175 million to USC's film school, which he once attended with film legend, Steven Spielberg.
For the record, the largest charitable contribution to a university in history was the $600 million that Gordon Moore, of Moore's Law fame and a founder of Intel (INCT),? gave Caltech in nearby Pasadena. As a teenager, I used to sit in on the math classes. Notice that all of these big donations to education are happening in California.
Tommy Trojan will no doubt be happy, provided that a Bruin from UCLA has not stolen his sword again, or painted him blue. And don?t ask me about ?Old Tire Biter.?
?The stock market is one of those things that looks better the more expensive it gets,? said Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Dividend Growth Fund.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Woman-in-glasses.jpg212325Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-20 01:05:502016-06-20 01:05:50June 20, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (DIAMONDS ARE STILL AN INVESTOR?S BEST FRIEND), (SO YOU THINK THEY?RE NOT WATCHING YOUR PC?)
Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I?m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt!
So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me set you straight. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website and I installed myself as a cookie on your computer, which is an innocuous little text file that you can?t see.
Since then, I have been tracking your every move, recording websites you clicked on, the pages you visited and the stuff you ordered. I then used this handy little algorithm to build a profile of exactly who you are. I now know you better than your own mother. In fact, I know you better than you know yourself.
For example, I am aware that you make more than $250,000 a year, live in a posh zip code in San Francisco, belong to a fancy country club and drive a Mercedes. You donate to Republican political causes, send your kids to a prestigious private school and bill it all to an American Express Platinum Card. Did I leave anything out?
Because I know every detail of your life, down to your inside leg measurement, I am able to harness the power of this machine to more precisely service your every need. That includes directing advertising to you, which you have a high probability of clicking on.
The more you click on my ads, the higher prices I can realize for those ads. The ad campaigns you now see are unique to your own personal computer because they are tied to your IP address. My program, called ?behavioral targeting?, is the next ?big thing? in online advertising. It?s all part of the brave new world.
I see you have been shopping for a new car. Check out the new Hyundai at http://www.hyundaiusa.com/, which offers the same quality as your existing ride, at half the price.
Your clicks this morning suggest you?re taking your ?significant other? out to dinner tonight. Might I suggest Gary Danko?s on Bay Street at http://www.garydanko.com/site/bio.html ? The rack of lamb is to die for there.
Your visits to Travelocity and Expedia tell me you?re planning a vacation. I bet you didn?t know you can find incredible deals in Las Vegas at http://www.visitlasvegas.com/vegas/index.jsp . Thinking about buying a condo there? They?ll even pay for the trip if you promise to check one out while you?re there.
Since we?re chatting here mano a mano, I noticed that that last pair of jeans you ordered from http://us.levi.com/home/index.jsp had a 42-inch waist, up from the 40?s in your last order. Better lay off those cheeseburgers. Pretty soon, they?ll be calling you ?tubby? or ?fatso?. Better visit http://www.weightwatchers.com/Index.aspx soon, or the legs on that chair might buckle out from under you.
Worried about privacy? Privacy, shmivacy. There hasn?t been privacy in this country since the first social security number was handed out in 1936. And don?t expect any relief from Congress. I doubt half those dummies even know how to turn on their own PC?s.
Don?t even think about trying to delete me. I?m a ?flash cookie?, an insidious little piece of code that reinstalls every time you try that. Think of me as a toenail fungus. Once you catch me, I?m almost impossible to get rid of.
I hope you don?t mind, but I?ve been passing your personal details around to some of my buddies at other websites. That?s why when you clicked on http://www.nfl.com/ you got deluged with product offers from your local team, the San Francisco 49ers.
I?ve got friends at Google, Facebook, MySpace, and pretty much everywhere. Can I help it if I?m a popular guy? I bet the view from those 50-yard seats is great, isn?t it?
I noticed that your spending habits don?t exactly match with the income you reported on your last tax return. Do you think the IRS would like to know about that? I bet you didn?t know the agency offers a 10% reward for turning in tax cheats.
How about those triple XXX DVD?s you bought last week? Whoa! Hot, hot, hot! I hope your employer never finds out about those. It might not go down too well at your next performance review.
I thought it was lovely that you bought your spouse a two carat, yellow, vvs1, round cut diamond ring for $26,000 from http://www.bluenile.com/ for your 30th wedding anniversary.
But who is Lolita, the Argentine firecracker, in Miami Beach? Does the old wifey know you sent her a $2,000 pair of diamond stud earrings? What?s it worth to you for me to keep mum on this? Maybe you should take a quick peek at 3StepDivorce.com, http://www.3stepdivorce.com, and see what you?re in for?
Naw, I?m just pulling your leg. This is all just between friends, right? Think of it as a doctor/patient relationship. I?ll tell you what. See that leaderboard ad at the top of the page? Just click on that and we?ll call it even. Oooh that felt good! Click it again. Oh, baby! Not too many times. You?ll trigger my anti click fraud program.
Now you see that wide skyscraper add over on the right? Click on that too. Oh baby! Click it again! And there?s a little button ad at the bottom of the page. No, not that one. A little lower. What was that little cutie?s name in Miami again? Aaaaah.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Computer.jpg295406Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-17 01:06:502016-06-17 01:06:50So You Think they?re not Watching Your PC?
?We are still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. I would have to put the likelihood of a double dip recession now up to 50%,? said my old UC Berkeley economics professor, Robert Reich.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/gravity.jpg240164Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-17 01:05:432016-06-17 01:05:43June 17, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JUNE 20 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (COULD YOU QUALIFY TO BECOME A US CITIZEN?)
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, June 20, 2016. A three course lunch will be provided.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $247.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James?s Square, the location of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/London.jpg467619DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-06-16 01:08:572016-06-16 01:08:57Last Chance to Attend the June 20 London Global Strategy Luncheon
Buried in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers.
If such rules were in place at the time of the settlement with Goldman Sachs (GS), the bonus, in theory, could have been worth up to $500 million. Wall Street firmswere bracing themselves for an onslaught of claims, legitimate and otherwise, by droves of hungry gold diggers looking for an early retirement.
Don?t count on this as a get rich quick scheme. Government hurdles to meet the requirement of a true stoolie can be daunting. The standard of evidence demanded is high, and must be matched with the violation of specific federal laws. Idle chit chat at the water cooler won?t do. Litigation can stretch out over five years, involve substantial legal costs, and often lead to a non-financial settlement with no reward.
Having ?rat? on your resume doesn?t exactly look good either. Just ask Sherron Watkins, the in house CPA who turned in energy giant Enron?s Ken Lay, Andy Fastow, and Jeffrey Skilling just before it crashed in flames. Nearly a decade later, Sherron earns a modest living on the lecture circuit warning of the risks of false accounting and whistle blowing.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Sherron-Watkins.jpg255331Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-16 01:07:082016-06-16 01:07:08Be Careful Who You Snitch On
The coming Fourth of July celebration brings back memories of my late wife?s campaign to become an American citizen. She originally came from Japan.
Part of the process required a verbal quiz about US history and government. Our family spent a year energetically prepping her, with nightly grillings over dinner about the most obscure details of our independent form of government. She took cram courses and read a dozen prep books.
By the time the test day came, she was a veritable constitutional law scholar, and any one of us could have qualified for a seat on the Supreme Court.
I drove her up to the Federal Building in Santa Rosa, California with the greatest trepidation. As the interviewing officer entered, the tension in the room was so thick, you could cut it with a knife.
There were only three questions. No. 1: What colors are in the American flag? (Answer: red, white, and blue). No. 2: Who was the first general of the US army? (Answer: George Washington). No. 3: What are the three branches of government? (Answer: legislative, executive, and judicial).
I was stunned. All that work and she gets a test that a child could pass. Two months later we were in an auditorium on San Francisco?s posh Nob Hill with 1,500 others to be sworn in, which by tradition is led by an English applicant.
In 2008, the feds revamped the test to make it a little harder.
Here are some sample questions. No. 1: Who wrote the Articles of Confederation? (Answer: Alexander Hamilton). No 2: How many seats are in the House of Representatives? (Answer: 435 voting, six nonvoting). No. 3: How many amendments are there to the Constitution? (Answer: 27)
Whoa! I?m not sure I could pass this test. Just as my SAT scores are probably too low to get into a decent school today, I?m not sure that I could meet the standard to become a citizen either. But over one million immigrants did last year.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Fireworks.jpg301451Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-16 01:06:182016-06-16 01:06:18Could You Qualify to Become a US Citizen?
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