I have reported in the past on the value of the Friday-Monday effect, whereby the bulk of the year's performance can be had through buying the Friday close in the stock market and then selling the Monday close (click here for ?The Friday-Monday Effect Exposed?).
Well, I have discovered a further distillation of this phenomenon. During 2010, the S&P 500 rose by 143 points. Some 134 points of this was racked up on the first trading day of each month, some 12 days in total. That is 94% of the entire return for the year.
I can see where this is coming from. Many pension and mutual funds are completely devoid of any real trading expertise. So they rely on a 'dumb' dollar cost averaging models to commit funds. In a rising market, like we had for most of last year, this produces an ever rising average cost.
More than a few hedge funds have figured this out, front run these executions at the expense of the investors of the other institutions. And you wonder why the public has become so disenchanted with their financial advisors.
The possibilities boggle the mind. Imagine strolling into the office on the last trading day of each month and committing your entire capital line. You then spend the night hoping that a giant asteroid doesn't destroy the earth.
You return to your desk at the next day's close, unload everything, and take off on a 30-day vacation. Every month, you come back for a reprise. At the end of the year you top the performance leagues, and retire richer than Croesus.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Man-Sleeping-on-Couch-e1439472331201.jpg266400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-03 01:06:292016-06-03 01:06:29The Twelve Day Year
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We have two options position that are in-the-money and expire in 11 trading days, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These comprises:
the S&P 500 (SPY) June $212-$217 in-the-money vertical bear put spread with a cost of $4.51
the Japanese Currency ETF (FXY) June $91-$94 vertical bear put spread with a cost of $2.65
As long as the (SPY) closes at or below $212.00 on Friday, June 17, the position will expire worth $5.00 and you will achieve the maximum possible profit of 10.86%.
As long as the (FXY) closes at or below $91 on Friday, June 17, the position will expire worth $3.00 and you will achieve the maximum possible profit of 13.20%.
Better that a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, as they say.
In this case, the expiration process is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use the long put to cover the short put, cancelling out the positions. The profit will be credited to your account on the following Monday, and the margin freed up.
Of course, I am watching these positions like a hawk, as always. If an unforeseen geopolitical event causes the (SPY) or the (FXY) to take off to the upside once again, such as Janet Yellen announces that there will never be another interest rate hike again, you should get the Trade Alert in seconds.
If the (SPY) expires slightly out-of-the-money, like at $214.10, then the situation may be more complicated, and can become a headache.
On the close, your short put position expires worthless, but your long put position is converted into a large, leveraged outright naked short position in the (SPY) with a net cost of? $217.49.
This position you do not want on pain of death, as the potential risk is huge and unlimited, and your broker probably would not allow it unless you put up a ton of new margin.
This is not what moneymaking is all about.
Professionals caught in this circumstance then buy a number of shares of (SPY) on expiration day equal to the short position they inherit with the expiring $217 put to hedge out their risk.
Then the long (SPY) stock position is cancelled out by the short (SPY) resulting from the exercised stock position, and on Monday both disappear from your statement. However, this can be dicey to execute going into the close.
So for individuals, I would recommend just selling the $214-$217 put spread outright in the market if it looks like this situation may develop and the (SPY) is going to close very close to the $214 strike, even if it as a loss.
The risk control is just too hard to handle.
There is another reason to come out early. Some brokers exercise the options in the spread into shares on expiration, and then hit you with a another commission on the sale of the shares.
So check with you broker to see how they handle options expirations.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Keep in mind, also, that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?
One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
With the price of oil closing at a low on Friday of $48.33, you?d think I might be concerned.
In actual fact, I could care less, am indifferent, unconcerned, and couldn't even give a rat?s ass.
In actual fact, oil was exactly at $48.33 a year ago. If you?d taken a one year cruise around the world, as I advised, you?d wonder what all the fuss is about.
Furthermore, I believe that oil could be at $48.33 a year from now. We may visit $60 first, then $40. But basically the price of oil has reached an equilibrium.
It is just high? enough to keep too many producers from going bankrupt, but low enough the keep that juggernaut, the America consumer, in the stores and buying.
There?s nothing like seeing your long-term forecasts vindicated.
When I warned the oil majors in the late 1990?s that fracking technology was about to change their world beyond all recognition, they told me I was out of my tree, in the politest way possible, as is their way in Houston.
Their argument was that the technology was untested, unproven, and a huge liability risk. If they accidently polluted underground fresh water supplies, the ambulance chasers would make a beeline towards the deepest pockets around, and that was theirs.
They were telling me this after I supplied them my data showing my 17 consecutive successful wells drilled in the depleted oilfields of the Barnett Shale, in West Texas (in the old Comanche country).
Some 17 years later and the energy industry has been changed beyond all recognition.
The majors finally jumped into fracking after building legal firewalls against the liability that so concerned them, and started fracking like there was no tomorrow.
The message is pretty clear. In the last five years, US oil production has skyrocketed from 8 million to 11.3 million barrels a day. It has since backed off 1 million b/d from the top.
America can now become the world?s largest oil producer any time it wants, eclipsing Saudi Arabia at 11 million b/d, and Russia at 10.5 b/d and falling. Thanks to the oil crash, there are now 1,000 wells that have been drilled, but capped, awaiting higher prices.
Some 200 large crude carriers are also slow steaming in circles around various parts of the world, awaiting the same.
Oil imports have collapsed from 10.3 to 6 million barrels a day. The share coming from the volatile Middle East has shrunk to a miniscule 2 million barrels a day.
Some 80% of Persian Gulf oil exports now go to China. OPEC surplus oil production capacity is soaring. It couldn?t happen to a nicer bunch of people.
The US will achieve energy independence within three years, or at least parity in its imports and exports of energy and distillates.
The administration is doing what it can to help along this trend, permitting the first exports of distillates in half a century, to South Korea it turns out.
Is it any wonder that president Obama is turning a blind eye to recent horrific developments in the Middle East? This explains why I really don?t care about oil prices anymore.
There is another upshot to all of this. About the time that America gets its energy independence back, it should also get a balanced budget.
That is coming primarily from the big cuts in defense spending. The twin deficits, energy and the budget, are intimately linked. It is no surprise then, they will disappear together.
By the way, did I mention that this is all great news for the long-term future for stock prices? The stock market certainly thinks so, with its stubborn refusal to fall substantially.
And for the price of oil?
I am not big buyer here. Nor am I a seller. We could ratchet back and forth within a $40-$60 range for quite some time.
Ask me again at either end of that range and I might be interested.
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?There?s nothing but tailwinds behind the American consumer. You?re creating a boatload of jobs, you?re creating all kinds of jobs. Wage growth is accelerating. The stock market is at record highs. The debt service burden is as low as it has ever been. And consumer confidence is back to pre recession levels,? said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody?s Analytics.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Woman-Shopping-Bags-e1439143353618.jpg190300Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-01 01:05:012016-06-01 01:05:01June 1, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (WHAT?S ON YOUR PLATE FOR THIS WEEK), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (FXE), (USO), (GLD), (THE TEN BAGGERS IN CYBER SECURITY), (PANW), (FEYE), (HACK)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) United States Oil (USO) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) FireEye, Inc. (FEYE) PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK)
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader closed out a blockbuster month in May, increasing customer assets by a lip smacking 3.93%.
The home runs were in short positions in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Japanese Yen (FXY), and the Euro (FXE), where we earned 10% to 16% a pop.
We even caught an overnight drop in the price of oil (USO) to pick up a few shekels on the short side.
We used the latest flip flop on Fed policy indicating a surprise tightening to stop out of our long gold trade, capping our losses in an asset class that was clearly rolling over.
You don?t want to be anywhere near the barbarous relic during a rising rate environment, no matter how brief it may be.
It should be a boring week of low volume summer trading, as traders sit on their hands awaiting this week?s big economic reports.
A further incentive to do nothing will be the dark cloud hanging over the upcoming June 14-15 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting.
A rate rise means ?RISK OFF?, while no action brings ?RISK ON?.
It?s going to be a fairly active week on the data front, despite the shortened four days.
Tuesday morning, the Case Shiller S&P 500 Home Price Index should show continued heady gains in residential real estate prices. Your home could become your top performing asset this year.
The next day, the Fed provides its Beige Book, which should confirm a slow reacceleration of economic growth from the Q1 mini recession. We already got the hint with Q1 GDP revised up on Friday from +0.50% to a still milquetoast +0.80%
Thursday, the weekly Jobless Claims should confirm figures close to 40 year lows. Everyone in the country who wants a job has one, except ?your cousin Milton, who never worked a day in his life.
On Friday, we get the big kahuna of the month, the May Nonfarm Payroll Report, which should show a steady 200,000 in monthly gains, keeping the headline unemployment rate to 5.0%. The U-6 structural long-term unemployment rate should continue its grind down into single digits.
As a result, near term trading opportunities may be few and far between. We may levitate at the top of the range for stocks all the way until mid-June, when the Fed shows its hand on its near term monetary policy.
If they don?t move, as I expect, risk assets everywhere will rally. But I don?t think we will break out to new all time highs until August or September. If they take action, risk assets will dive.
My former Berkeley economics professor, Janet Yellen, didn?t give us any help in her Harvard speech on Friday, essentially saying rates will rise somewhere, someday, and now you can all take off for the Hamptons.
Thanks a lot, Janet!
The one interesting thing she did say is that the Fed actually considered negative interest rates as a policy option. That means we?ll get them FOR SURE in the next recession three or four years down the road.
In any case, I plan to be well out of the market by June 13, taking profits on my remaining positions. Those include shorts in the (SPY) and the yen (FXY), and a long in the Treasury bond market (TLT). I?m deliberately keeping my book small, retaining lots of dry powder for better entry points.
When an upcoming event risk becomes too random, it is better to step out of the market and scale back your risk. Leave the coin tosses to the kids. The CNN Fear And Greed Index is screaming at you that new longs initiated here will end in tears.
If by chance we get the upside breakout now, let your few lucky friends who caught it pay for he next round of drinks. It is a low quality trade.
Sound like a good time to me for a vacation to me.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Fear-Greed-e1464649450970.jpg350400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-05-31 01:07:132016-05-31 01:07:13What?s on Your Plate for This Week
The threat to America?s national security does not come from ISIS, Iran, Russia, or China. It is an online hack attack.
That is the view of General Keith B. Alexander, who recently retired as the head of US Cyber Command after a lifetime in the intelligence business, the country?s principal online warrior.
I discovered a long time ago that a retired general can be one of the most valuable sources of information about long term capital market trends. After a career spent exercising discretion and keeping opinions to themselves, the dam breaks.
Sometimes, I am amazed at what I can pick up. Of course, it helps that my own top-secret clearance is still valid.
So when the chance arose to secretly meet Alexander at an undisclosed location, I jumped at it.
The general argues that the US is the preeminent online target because we have so much to lose. A concentrated attack could simultaneously cripple all communications, power supply, and financial markets. Life, as we know it, would completely grind to a halt.
The greatest cyber attacks are yet to come.
The US has no shortage of enemies on this front. Vladimir Putin is attempting to reassemble the old Soviet Union. Iran is engaged in numerous adventures throughout the Middle East. China is expanding its empire at every opportunity.
Alexander knows what he is talking about.
He is a recently retired four-star general who served as Director of the National Security Agency (DIRNSA), Chief of the Central Security Service (CHCSS) and Commander of the United States Cyber Command.
He graduated from West Point, Class of 1974, along with three other future four-star generals, including former CIA chief, David Petraeus, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, whom I both know and have written about.
While head of Army Intelligence, he was in charge of 10,700 spies and eavesdroppers worldwide. He has three master?s degrees in business, physics, and systems technology.
A lightweight, he is not.
Alexander expressed his concern that ISIS was using Facebook (FB) to build a global terrorist network. Google (GOOG) has lost $10 billion in revenues to cyber attacks.
The government?s controversial collection of meta-data, now at risk from the republican controlled congress, was instrumental in preventing a plot to blow up the New York subway system in 2009.
Coordination between federal agencies is still a major problem. When the NSA discovered that CIA computers may have been compromised, they asked to take a look. They were refused.
Finally, pressure from the president opened the doors. The NSA discovered 1,500 Russian malware programs on agency mainframes and they scrubbed them in only 22 hours.
Big data programs on US computers in Iraq were instrumental in identifying, locating, and destroying much of the leadership of Al Qaida.
Ironically, the US military has broken up more hack attacks against European targets than US ones, thanks to their weaker defenses.
And here is the part that always blows my mind. Military men are often clueless about the market implications of their own far reaching conclusions.
That is where I step in.
It looks like the cyber security sector, one of the best market performers during the first half of? 2015, is about to take off like a rocket once again. There could be another 20-30% in it this year.
We are only one hack attack away from another blockbuster rally.
The near destruction of Sony (SNE) by North Korean hackers in 2014 has certainly put the fear of God into corporate America. Apparently, they have no sense of humor whatsoever north of the 38th parallel.
As a result, there is a generational upgrade in cyber security underway, with many potential targets boosting spending by multiples.
Alexander suggested that the world will probably never again see large-scale armies fielded by major industrial nations. Wars of the future will be fought online, as they have been silently and invisibly over the past 15 years.
All of those trillions of dollars spent on big ticket, heavy metal weapons systems are pure pork designed by politicians to buy voters in marginal swing states.
The money would be far better spent where it is most needed, on the cyber warfare front. Alexander is not alone in these views among America?s senior military leadership.
The problem is that when wars become cheaper, you fight more of them, as is the case with online combat.
You probably don?t know this, but during the Bush administration, the Chinese military downloaded the entire contents of the Pentagon?s mainframe computers at least seven times.
This was a neat trick because these computers were in stand alone, siloed, electromagnetically shielded facilities not connected to the Internet in any way.
In the process, they obtained the designs of all of our most advanced weapons systems, including our best nukes. What have they done with this top-secret information?
Absolutely nothing.
Like many in senior levels of the US military, the Chinese have concluded that these weapons are a useless waste of valuable resources. Far better value-for-money are more hackers, coders, and servers, which the Chinese have pursued with a vengeance.
You have seen this in the substantial tightening up of the Chinese Internet through the deployment of the Great Firewall, which blocks local access to most foreign websites.
Try sending an email to someone in the middle Kingdom with a Gmail address. It is almost impossible. This is why Google (GOOG) closed their offices there years ago.
As a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff recently told me, ?The greatest threat to national defense is wasting money on national defense.?
Our nation?s military is clamoring for more money to take the cyber war to the enemy. Instead, they are effectively being given more horses, cavalry sabers, and cannon to fight it. No wonder they are eternally frustrated.
The implication is that I need to go out and buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW) once again, a company that I have been recommending since I started covering the industry a year ago. Since then, the shares have skyrocketed some 162%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is an American network security company based in Santa Clara, California just across the water from my Bay Area office.
The company?s core products are advanced firewalls designed to provide network security, visibility and granular control of network activity based on application, user, and content identification.
Palo Alto Networks competes in the unified threat management and network security industry against Cisco (CSCO), FireEye (FEYE), Fortinet (FTNT), Check Point (CHKP), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Cyberoam, among others.
The really interesting thing about this industry is that there are no losers. That?s because companies are taking a layered approach to cyber security, parceling out contracts to many of the leading firms at once?looking to hedge their bets.
To say that top management has no idea what these products really do would be a huge understatement. Therefore, they buy all of them.
This makes a basket approach to the industry more feasible than usual. You can do this through buying the $435 million capitalized PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), which boasts Cyberark Software (CYBR), Infoblox (BLOX), and FireEye (FEYE) as its three largest positions. (HACK) has been a hedge fund favorite since the Sony attack.
If you ar
e looking for value plays in this area, you can forget about it. Neither (PANW) nor (FEYE) generate any net earnings. Much as with Tesla (TSLA), you are not betting on what the earnings are today, but what they might be worth in a decade, when the market is infinitely larger.
Think of them as faith based investments.
Could the shares today?s crop of cyber security companies rise tenfold from here? Absolutely! Actually, ten might be a low number. If nothing else, the entire industry has become prime takeover bait, offering potential instant profits.
Oh, and by the way, Alexander thinks that drone surveillance of US citizens is coming in the near future. Look out above!
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