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DougD

June 22, 2106

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 22, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 27 BASEL, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS),
(CHINA?S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-22 01:09:572016-06-22 01:09:57June 22, 2106
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

China?s Coming Demographic Nightmare

Diary, Newsletter

Thanks to China's ?one child only? policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls.

Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended consequences.

Until early in the last century, starving rural mothers abandoned unwanted female newborns in the hills to be taken away by ?spirits.?? Today, pregnant women resort to the modern day equivalent by getting ultrasounds and undergoing abortions when they learn they are carrying girls.

Millions of children are ?little emperors,? spoiled male-only children who have been raised to expect the world to revolve around them.? The resulting shortage of women has led to an epidemic of ?bride kidnapping? in surrounding countries. Stealing of female children is widespread in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Mongolia.

The end result has been a barbell shaped demographic curve unlike that seen in any other country. The Beijing government says the program has succeeded in bringing the fertility rate from 3.0 down to 1.8, well below the 2.1 replacement rate.? As a result, the Middle Kingdom's population today is only 1.2 billion instead of the 1.6 billion it would have been.

Political scientists have long speculated that an excess of young men would lead to more bellicose foreign policies by the Middle Kingdom. But so far the choice has been for commerce, to the detriment of America's trade balance and internet security.

In practice, the one child policy has only been applied to those who live in cities or have government jobs. That is about two thirds of the population.

On my last trip to China I spent a weekend walking around Shenzhen city parks. The locals doted over their single children, while visitors from the countryside played games with their three, four, or five children. The contrast couldn?t have been more bizarre.

Economists now wonder if the practice will also understate China's long-term growth rate. Parents with boys tend to be bigger savers, so they can help sons with the initial big-ticket items in life, like an education, homes, and even cars.

The end game for this policy has to be the Japan disease; a huge population of senior citizens with insufficient numbers of young workers to support them. The markets won't ignore this.

In the latest round of reforms announced by the Chinese government was the demise of the one child policy. But no matter how hard you try, you can?t change the number of people born 30 years ago.

The boomerang effects of this policy could last for centuries.

emperor

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/emperor-e1403118555370.jpg 320 213 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-22 01:06:472016-06-22 01:06:47China?s Coming Demographic Nightmare
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 22, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?I?d much rather have the Wicked Witch of the East go away. We?d be way better off if we ended quantitative easing real fast so this scapegoat can get behind us,? said Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments.

Wicked Witch

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Wicked-Witch.jpg 295 402 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-22 01:05:112016-06-22 01:05:11June 22, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

June 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 7 DUBROVNIK, CROATIA GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(AMERICA?S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-21 01:08:262016-06-21 01:08:26June 21, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 21, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?There?s a lot of performance anxiety out there right now. There?s nothing worse than sitting on cash watching a market go up double digits,? said Tom Lee, chief US equity strategist of JP Morgan.

Woman-Anxiety

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Woman-Anxiety.jpg 170 168 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-21 01:05:082016-06-21 01:05:08June 21, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

June 20, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 20, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JUNE 29 DUBLIN, IRELAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(ARE JUNK BONDS PEAKING?),
?(JNK), (HYG),
(A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC)

SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-20 01:09:592016-06-20 01:09:59June 20, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Are Junk Bonds Peaking?

Diary, Newsletter

There is no happier corner of the fixed income universe than junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), which have been soaring like a bat out of hell recently.

Average yields for the bond class most sensitive to the economy have collapsed from 18% to near an all-time low of 6.68%, a scant 483 basis points over ten year Treasury bonds (TLT).

If you look at the chart for (JNK) it virtually tracks the S&P 500 one for one, with less volatility, and therein lies the problem. When bonds act like stocks, what happens to bonds when stocks go down?

That is a particularly pertinent question these days as stocks have more than doubled from the bottom, and are approaching grotesquely overbought levels. After a move in the S&P 500 Index?s average multiple from 9 to 19, with 20 a possible top, are junk bonds peaking out here as well?

?A 483 basis point premium does not sound like much compared to the historical range. It is pricing in the near absence of risk in this paper, as if they will live forever? When did I last see this movie? 2006? 2007? Alas, how short memories have become.

It might be worth taking some money off the table here, and taking the hit in the cash flow in your portfolio.

Lowering your beta is prudent, especially if we are about to move from a 'RISK ON' to a 'RISK OFF' world for more than a day.

Do you really want to wait for the music to stop playing before you grab a chair?

JNK
HYG

 

Childrens GameTime to Grab a Chair Before the Music Stops Playing?

 

Truck Antique

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Childrens-Game.jpg 311 327 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-20 01:07:092016-06-20 01:07:09Are Junk Bonds Peaking?
DougD

A Touchdown for USC

Diary, Newsletter

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California announced that they had received their largest private donation in history.

As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and, oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news.

David and Dana Dornsife gave $200 million to the downtown Los Angeles home of the Trojans. The money will be used to fund the College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, which will be renamed after them.

Dornsife made his fortune as the owner of Herrick Corp., a Stockton based maker of the prefabricated steel that was used to build many of the skyscrapers in the center of Los Angeles.

The gift tops the university's previous largest gift from George Lucas, of Star Wars fame, who in 2006 contributed $175 million to USC's film school, which he once attended with film legend, Steven Spielberg.

For the record, the largest charitable contribution to a university in history was the $600 million that Gordon Moore, of Moore's Law fame and a founder of Intel (INCT),? gave Caltech in nearby Pasadena. As a teenager, I used to sit in on the math classes. Notice that all of these big donations to education are happening in California.

Tommy Trojan will no doubt be happy, provided that a Bruin from UCLA has not stolen his sword again, or painted him blue. And don?t ask me about ?Old Tire Biter.?

? ?

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/David-and-Dana-Dornsife.jpg 199 264 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-20 01:06:302016-06-20 01:06:30A Touchdown for USC
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 20, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?The stock market is one of those things that looks better the more expensive it gets,? said Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Dividend Growth Fund.

Woman in glasses

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Woman-in-glasses.jpg 212 325 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-20 01:05:502016-06-20 01:05:50June 20, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

June 17, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 17, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(DIAMONDS ARE STILL AN INVESTOR?S BEST FRIEND),
(SO YOU THINK THEY?RE NOT WATCHING YOUR PC?)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-17 01:09:322016-06-17 01:09:32June 17, 2016
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