Global Market Comments
December 31, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS),
(HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP),
(MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Global Market Comments
December 30, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON),
(A CONVERSATION WITH THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND),
(DINNER WITH JOSEPH STIGLITZ)
Buried in the recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your crooked boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion dollar rewards amounting to 10%-30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistleblowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers.
If such rules were in place at the time of the settlement with Goldman Sachs (GS), the bonus, in theory, could have been worth up to $500 million. Wall Street firms are bracing themselves for an onslaught of claims, legitimate and otherwise, by droves of hungry gold diggers looking for an early retirement.
Don't count on this as a get rich quick scheme. Government hurdles to meet the requirement of a true stoolie can be daunting. The standard of evidence demanded is high, and must be matched with the violation of specific federal laws. Idle chit chat at the water cooler won't do. Litigation can stretch out over five years, involve substantial legal costs, and often lead to a non-financial settlement with no reward. For those who do deliver the goods, death threats from defendants are not unheard of.
Having 'rat' on your resume doesn't exactly look inviting either. Just ask Sherron Watkins, the in-house CPA who turned in energy giant Enron's Ken Lay, Andy Fastow, and Jeffrey Skilling just before it crashed in flames. Nearly a decade later, Sherron earns a modest living on the lecture circuit warning of the risks of false accounting, and whistleblowing. There have been no job offers.
Global Market Comments
December 26, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),
(PIN), (FXI),
(WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN?T ADDING VALUE?)
(PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide.
Some 36 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate.
My friends at the International Monetary Fund just put out a report predicting that India will grow by 8.5% this year. While the country's total GDP is only a quarter of China's $5 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2013. Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly.
India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close in size, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.
But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it's going to be. The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges Dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.
A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage. When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000. That's why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.
India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world. China's 30-year-old 'one child' policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.
There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the People's Congress in 2013 could lead to posturing and political instability, which the markets could find unsettling. India is the world's largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization that took place 20 years ago.
I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers, make my travel reservations, and tell me how to work my new altimeter watch. In August, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), and it has gone up in a straight line since, instantly making it one of my top picks of the year. On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF's (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).
Better to Own This Pyramid
Than This Pyramid
Taxi! Taxi!
Global Market Comments
December 24, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(A CHRISTMAS STORY),
(THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)
It is the end of the school year at the University of California at Berkeley, and the unenviable task of moving my son, a senior, out of his hovel for the holidays fell to me.
When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students. Computer desk, stained mattresses, broken lava lamps, and an assortment of heavily worn Ikea furniture were there for the taking. Newly arriving students were sifting through the piles looking for that reusable gem. Diminutive Chinese teenagers were seen pushing massive suitcases on wheels down the sidewalk on their way back to Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong. The university attempted to bring order to the chaos by strategically placing dumpsters on every block, but they were rapidly filled to overflowing.
It was all worth it because of the insight it gave me into one of my favorite, least known leading economic indicators. When I picked up the truck at U-HAUL, the lot was absolutely packed with returned vehicles, and there were more parked on both sides of the streets. The booking agent told me there is a massive influx of people moving into California from the Midwest and the Northwest, with the result that lots all over the San Francisco Bay Area are filled to capacity.
I love this company because in addition to providing a great service, they get the first indication of any changes to the migratory habits of Americans. The last time I saw this happen was after the dotcom bust, when thousands of tech savvy newly unemployed pulled up stakes in the foggy city and moved to Lake Tahoe to work in ?the cloud.? Bottom line: California is enjoying a resurgence of hiring and new economic growth. This is what the stock market is seeing that you and I can?t.
Want a Great Deal on a Used Lava Lamp?
Global Market Comments
December 23, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE),
(A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS),
(THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU),
(THANK GOODNESS I DON?T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD)
Global Market Comments
December 20, 2013
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE
Featured Trades:
(GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM),
(A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED OPTIONS)
Global Market Comments
December 19, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT HITS 63%),
(SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (XLF),
(I WAS WRONG?.BUT IT DIDN?T MATTER)
(A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US)
(THE STRUCTURAL BEAR CASE FOR TREASURY BONDS),
(TLT), (TBT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.