?It?s a funny thing about life. If you refuse to accept anything but the best, you very often get it,? said British Novelist, Somerset Maugham.
Global Market Comments
December 4, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MR. MARIO?S BIG SURPRISE),
(FXE), (EUO), (HEDJ), (TLT), (TBT),
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (TTEK), (PNR),
(TESTIMONIAL)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)
PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)
Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK)
Pentair plc (PNR)
ECB president Mario Draghi certainly let go of a lead balloon today.
Instead of announcing a 20 basis point cut in Euro interest rates, we only got 10.
The world blew apart.
The Euro rocketed against the dollar some 3.5% in minutes, the best gain since 2009, and one of the top ten moves of all time for the beleaguered continental currency.
US Treasury bonds crashed, giving up $3, and popping yields from 2.18% to 2.32%. Stocks fell to pieces globally. The Volatility Index (VIX) went through he roof.
Never mind that Draghi announced an extension of European quantitative easing by six more months to March 2017, or that the number of qualified securities for the central bank could buy was expanded.
All traders wanted was one more rally before yearend into which they could unload their sizable Euro shorts. When they didn?t get it, they panicked and stampeded for the exits.
It was your classic flash fire in the movie theater.
This is what happens when positioning in financial markets gets too one-sided. Risk managers talk about too many passengers in one side of the canoe. Everyone gets to go swimming.
That is why I quit rolling down the strikes on my Euro shorts three weeks ago, loathe to sell to much at the bottom. My one remaining short Euro position successfully weathered today?s spike, is still in the money, and only has ten trading until expiration.
The important takeaway here is that today?s moves were entirely technical, and had nothing to do with fundamentals, which always win out over time.
The meteoric move in the Euro did not occur because of a sudden burst of strength in the European economy. It didn?t take place because the ECB is raising rates.
So, I think this entire move is bogus. It is a typical December event, where all of the hot money wants to get out of the market within the next four weeks so they can close their books and start over again next year.
It is also a great lesson on what happens when you have too many hedge fund chasing the same few trades. It always ends in tears.
Which leads me to believe that the dramatic moves we saw today will reverse themselves shortly. Stocks (SPY) will soar, bonds (TLT) will rise modestly, and the Euro (FXE), (EUO) will take the express train downtown. The (VIX) will fade, again.
These gyrations could possibly take place as soon as Friday?s November nonfarm payroll report. All we need is a number north of 200,000, and it will be off to the raises once again.
I am so convinced of my convictions that I bought the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX ETF (XIV) 30 minutes before the close (that?s the latest I can send out a Trade Alert and expect readers to have time to open and execute).
USE THE HEDGE FUNDS? PAIN FOR YOUR GAIN!
If you still hold a Euro short, keep it.
If you are underweight stocks, here is another fine entry point.
This is especially true for hedged European stocks (HEDJ), which have just opened an excellent entry point.
The (SPY) is only down 2.1% from its recent high, and off 3.7% from its all time high, hardly the stuff of bear markets, or even corrections.
Surprise!
I have always had a passion for the markets and the Mad Hedge Fund Trader gave me the courage to make my first trade. At the time I was unemployed and put in everything I could scrape together - about ten thousand dollars.
For me this was a free education, as the profits would pay for all the books and the fees. My father gave me some money as a gift, while telling me ?I was crazy? following ?some guy? off the internet.
Every suggestion I have taken religiously. I follow all your lead indicators from the Shanghai stock market to Dr. Copper and the jobless claims. In the last couple of months I have started doing my own successful options trades based on the extra suggestions you give in the webinars and commentaries. Often I do a trade and ten minutes later an alert comes.
My father who is worried about his future (like so many of us) is now joining the program. I am going to assist him with his first trades. Another family member has asked me to manage his money. I really feel you are helping me become a hedge fund manager with this fantastic program.
Geoff
London ? England
?
Global Market Comments
December 3, 2015
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE
Featured Trade:
(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Global Market Comments
December 2, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE UNICORNS ARE EATING YOUR LUNCH),
(IS USA, INC. A ?SELL?)
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was cash flow negative, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?
Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, de-friend me from you Facebook account, and delete my email address from your contact list and stop following me on Twitter.
Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did, technology guru Mary Meeker.
Now a partner at venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.
The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.
The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII, when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson?s ?Great Society? began, GDP rose by 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leapt by 11.1 times.
If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.
Of course, the biggest problem is with health care spending, which will see no solution until health care costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life spans, and infant mortality.
Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient?s final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.
Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70, and means testing recipients.
The solutions to our other problems are simple, but require political suicide for those making the case.
For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage deductions, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses, and raise $1 trillion a year. That would more than wipe out the current budget deficit in one fell swoop.
Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the sixties, Google, Yahoo, eBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing today.
Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and is still run by the government and has been another great wellspring of profits (I got to use it during the 1980?s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret).
There are a few gaping holes in Mary?s ?thought experiment?. I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America?s gold reserves, the world?s largest at 8,965 tons worth $300 billion, at only $34 an ounce, versus an actual current market price of $1,156.
Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $5 billion each in today?s dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.
Mary expounds at length on her analysis, which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.

Worth More Than a Dollar?
?At some point in 2016, knuckles are going to be turning white, and we'll see whatever rabbits Janet Yellen is going to have to pull out of her hat,? said David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff & Associates.
Global Market Comments
December 1, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 2 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH)
With Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly leading on the polls, and the Republican Party self destructing in the primaries, there is a chance that the next US president will be a woman.
So it is prudent to dust off some of Hillary?s favorite tax plans and figure how much this great leap into the future is going to cost us.
As for me, I am going to have to learn how to enjoy hiking in the High Sierras missing an arm and a leg.
I don?t care if you are still licking your wounds from the last payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.5%, and then 43.3% with the Obamacare add on. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%.
And then there?s my carried interests.
At $420 billion, the budget deficit is so enormous that bringing it into balance merely through spending cuts is a mathematical impossibility.
If you own your own home, work for a large company, save for your retirement, earn money from capital gains or carried interests, and toss in a check when they pass the dish around at church every Sunday, you are the biggest beneficiary of the current tax system.
Therefore, you are Hillary?s primary target. Check out Clinton?s wish list below, the logic she will use for each one, and the revenues the death of these tax breaks will raise:
$264 billion- Should those without health care subsidize those who receive it for free from their employers? This is the amount raised by taxing company provided health insurance as regular income. Think large banks, oil companies, and yes, hedge funds. Those with plans valued over $10,000 are already being taxed. Expect all of it to get taxed.
$100 billion- Should renters be subsidizing homeowners? Kiss that home mortgage interest deduction goodbye. The more aggressive version of this has the ceiling on deductions dropping to loans of only $500,000.
$100 billion- End the tax deductibility of charitable contributions. Should those who don?t go to church subsidize those who do? In fact, some 90% of this money currently goes to the fine arts patronized by the well off. Universities, churches, and political fund raising will go begging.
$70 billion ? The carried interest treatment of deferred income, originally introduced by President Carter to spur venture capital investment, has evolved into a subsidy for the ?1%?. Both parties now blame it for concentrating too much wealth at the top. This is target number one for everyone. Gosh, it?s been a great run though.
$52 billion- Should those without savings subsidize those salting away money for retirement. This is the argument that will be made to end tax deductibility of 401k contributions. After all, some 60% of the country has no savings whatsoever. This is a stretch, but the talk is out there.
$39 billion- Savings on taxes exempted by the step up in the cost bases for investments inherited by surviving spouses. She doesn?t need that McMansion anyway.
$36 billion- Tax capital gains as regular income. This won?t affect you if you never sell and let your heirs sort out the mess.
$31 billion- Stop special tax treatment of dividend incomes.
Please note that these most draconian measures only raise $656 billion a year, more than wiping out the current budget deficit. But if a special interest group succeeds in preserving any of the preferential treatments above, then you will have to cut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Defense spending and of course the big one, Obamacare.
In any case, I think it will be politically impossible to get any of these changes through the current congress. An energy tax and a national value added tax are also on the table.
The key to understanding American politics for the next decade is that gridlock will be the winner of any future election. It is highly unlikely that one party will gain control of the presidency and both houses of congress.
So Hillary can propose all she wants, but is unlikely to get anything done. She will be checkmated, much like President Obama has been for the past five years.
So you can climb off that ledge now.
None of these hikes would be necessary if the economy grew at a 4% real rate instead of the present 2-2.5%.
I think this will happen during the 2020?s, thanks to a huge demographic tailwind, no matter which party is in power. This is why tax rates in emerging countries are so impossibly low.
Of course, we could adopt Mary Meeker?s suggestion in her paper on USA, Inc. and eliminate all deductions, raising about $1 trillion a year. That would involve shrinking the Internal Revenue Code from the current 71,000 pages to a single page, and moving to a flat tax system.
The mass unemployment of one million CPA?s and 106,000 internal revenue agents alone would be worth the price.
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