Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Berlin, Germany, at 12:00 noon on Tuesday, July 16, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $219.
The lunch will be held at a downtown Berlin hotel within sight of the Brandenburg Gate, the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Berlin-Brandenburg-Gate.jpg268356Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-13 09:11:382013-06-13 09:11:38July 16 Berlin Strategy Luncheon
Southern California Edison (SCE/PF) has announced that it is permanently closing its controversial nuclear power plant at San Onofre. The move is only the latest in a series of closures implemented by utilities around the country, and could well spell the end of this flagging industry. This is further dismal news for holders of ETF?s in the sector, like the Market Vector Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) and Cameco (CCJ).
SCE?s problems started in July, 2012 when a faulty steam generator tube released a small amount of radioactive steam and the plant was immediately shut down. An inspection revealed that 3,000 additional tubes were showing excessive wear, possible due to a design flaw, or perhaps their exposure to 45 years of high intensity radiation.
Supplier, Westinghouse, owned by Japan?s Toshiba Group, rushed in with a replacement generator, which failed within a month. That prompted the Nuclear Regulator Commission to demand a full license reapplication, which promised to be a contentious and expensive multiyear slugfest. That was all SCE needed to throw in the towel and move for permanent closure. About 1,100 workers will be laid off.
San Onofre has been a continuous target of environmentalist litigation since it was opened in 1968. You could have found a better place to build a nuclear power plant than the birthplace of the environmental movement. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2010, another Westinghouse plant, Senator Barbara Boxer was not too happy about it either. It turns out there was no practical evacuation plan in the event of an emergency. Some 25 million people live within 100 miles of the facility, and there is no way you move these numbers anywhere in a hurry. The region is totally gridlocked even in a normal rush hour. That prompted Boxer to lead a series of congressional hearings, not just about San Onofre, but the entire aging nuclear industry nationwide.
The development means that Southern California Edison will have to write off the $2.1 billion in capital investment and upgrades that it has carried out over the last 20 years. Decommissioning will cost another $2 billion. These are the most expensive and toxic demolitions on the planet. Stored nuclear waste will remain on sight until a national solution is found. The costs will be entirely passed on to the region?s long-suffering electric power consumers.
I know the San Onofre plant well, as it is right on the border of the Marine Corps. base at Camp Pendleton. My dad was stationed there during WWII and was followed by a long succession of descendants. I used it as a landmark for inbound VFR flights to the base. I also practiced amphibious assaults on the beach, with traditional landing craft, light armored reconnaissance vehicles (LAR), and advanced hovercraft (LCAC). I also had to swim once. On R&R, San Onofre offered one of the best surfing beaches on the coast.
I am not holding my breath for the nuclear industry. For more depth on the topic, please see my earlier piece, ?New Nuclear Demolished by New Natural Gas? by clicking here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NLR-6-12-13.jpg467611Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-13 09:09:412013-06-13 09:09:41Another Nail in the Nuclear Coffin
I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom. So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients.
These are usually sedentary affairs, but Dominic spit out fascinating statistics so fast I had to write furiously to keep up. Sadly, my bacon and eggs grew cold and congealed. Asia has accounted for 50% of world GDP for most of human history. It dipped down to only 10% over the last two centuries, but is now on the way back up. That implies that China?s GDP will triple relative to our own from current levels.
A $500 billion infrastructure oriented stimulus package enabled the Middle Kingdom to recover faster from the Great Recession than the West, and if this didn?t work, they had another $500 billion package sitting on the shelf. But with GDP of only $5.5 trillion today, don?t count on China bailing out our $15.5 trillion economy.
China is trying to free itself from an overdependence on exports by creating a domestic demand driven economy. The result will be 900 million Asians joining the global middle class who are all going to want cell phones, PC?s, and to live in big cities. Asia has a huge edge over the West with a very pro-growth demographic pyramid. China needs to spend a further $2 trillion in infrastructure spending, and a new 75-story skyscraper is going up there every three hours!
Some 1,000 years ago, the Silk Road was the world?s major trade route, and today intra-Asian trade exceeds trade with the West. The commodity boom will accelerate as China withdraws supplies from the market for its own consumption, as it has already done with the rare earths.
Climate change is going to become a contentious political issue, with per capita carbon emission at 19 tons in the US, compared to only 4.6 tons in China, but with all of the new growth coming from the later. Protectionism, pandemics, huge food and water shortages, and rising income inequality are other threats to growth.
To me, this all adds up to buying on the next substantial dip big core longs in China (FXI), commodities (DBC) and the 2X (DYY), food (DBA), and water (PHO). A quick Egg McMuffin next door filled my other needs.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/FXI-6-12-13.jpg477609Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-13 09:04:472013-06-13 09:04:47The China View from 30,000 Feet
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $229.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James Street, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Big_Ben_8583a-e1429708732816.jpg388400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-12 15:13:552013-06-12 15:13:55July 8 London Strategy Luncheon
Tesla (TSLA) CEO, Elon Musk, has taken off the gloves and is offering an innovative new hybrid lease that promises to bring in thousands of new buyers of his revolutionary, all electric S-1 sedan.
The package eliminates the downside risk that concerned prospective customers about the resale value of their cars down the road. Under the program, Tesla will buy back your car at 50% of the purchase price after 36-39 months. This equates to a rate of depreciation that is on par with other premium, high-end vehicles, like Mercedes, Porsche, and Jaguar.
Assuming that you buy the 85 kWh, 270 miles range S-1 for $79,900, this works out to a monthly payment of $1,025, also in line with the market. Tesla people tell me that since the plan was announced, 90% of the buyers have opted for the lease option. Many are actual cash buyers who are placing the maximum $50,000 down with the intention to pay off the $30,000 balance in six months, just to get the free put option on the vehicle.
Tesla is also moving full steam ahead with its national supercharger network, which will enable electric car owners to drive coast to coast. Only 45 minutes is required to obtain a full charge. Just last night, my S-1 upgraded itself online and I was presented with new superchargers in Gilroy and Bakersfield, California. I can now make it down to San Diego.
Elon has promised to take his family on such an expedition as soon as the infrastructure is in place some time next year. I am considering my own trip from San Francisco to Chicago, which according to MapQuest, I could do in 30 hours. After all, it will be free, less the investment of my own time at the wheel, and the wear and tear on the tires.
When I was a teenager during the 1960?s, I hitchhiked from the West to the East coast more than 30 times. I used to race my younger brother from Los Angeles to New York, who finally won with a record time of 49 hours. I met a lot of strange people in those days. Once, I was picked up in Texas by a nervous, chain-smoking woman driving a souped up Dodge Dart fleeing a violent husband, seeking refuge in California. She drove like a bat out of hell the entire way, and we made the Golden State in record time. It?s funny, the things you remember.
A drive across the Great American Desert can have a cleansing, almost rejuvenating effect, as long as you don?t mind the country western music on the radio. The last time I did this was during the eighties, when I drove my ?sister to graduate school at Texas A&M. That little foray found me line dancing with a bunch of drunken Aggies in a College Station bar. How is it that everything surreal that happens to me always occurs in Texas?
But I digress. Tesla has quit making the 40 kWh, 130-mile range version of the S-1, as virtually all demand was for the long range model. The waiting list is now down to two months, which is why they took the next step on the marketing front. The four-wheel drive Model X is still on schedule for 2014, and I am number 645 on the waiting list for that vehicle. I have already wired my Lake Take house for 220 volt recharging. Who cares what the price is!
When I stop at traffic lights in the city, I still get applause and thumbs up from cheering groups of pedestrians. And then there are those little notes tucked under the windshield wipers from admiring young women asking for rides. That, alone, is worth the $100k. The State of California has already sent me my $2,500 Clean Vehicle Rebate, and I plan to claim my $7,500 Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (form 8936) on my federal tax return this year.
I have received a lot of emails about the weekend Barron?s article panning Tesla. Elon says he can drop the cost of his batteries from $400 to $200 in five years, making his planned mass market $40,000, 200 mile range ?Gen III? Tesla profitable. General Motors (GM) says he can?t. Given the recent track record of the two companies, I am more inclined to back Elon.
Let me tell you what is really going on here. The automobile establishment absolutely hates Tesla, because Musk has proven everything they said was impossible. Tesla doesn?t advertise, as its innovative, low cost business model sells all of its cars online. This is why they are banned in Texas, which hasn?t the slightest interest in seeing non-oil forms of transportation succeed.
Tesla also doesn?t advertise. Open the pages of Barron?s, and you will find ads extolling the virtues of General Motors, Ford, (F), and Chrysler, but not one from the disruptive Tesla. It?s the same with the financial industry. Barron?s often publishes damning expos?s on tiny companies you have never heard of, but extolls the great wisdom and foresight of PIMCO, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley, their largest advertisers. That is the free market, capitalist world we live in.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Tesla.jpg271483Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-12 15:10:392013-06-12 15:10:39Tesla Takes Off the Gloves
You never know what the third, fourth, or fifth derivative impacts a major economic trend can cause. That is how the collapse of the housing market has created a Chihuahua glut in California, where evicted homeowners are handing over their pets to animal shelters.
The diminutive Mexican canine enjoyed a boom in popularity in recent years, thanks to movies like Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Legally Blonde. Celebrities, like Paris Hilton, have also helped promote the breed, flaunting one in front of the paparazzi. Animal shelters in the Land of Fruits and Nuts have been so overwhelmed they have had to ship the ultra-cute, but utterly useless animals to pounds as far away as Toronto.
Will the unintended consequences of Greenspan?s low interest policy never end? Give the poor Chihuahuas a break! We can count on future dislocations to release more Chihuahuas on the market, as well as other exotic pets. How do you think all those alligators got into the New York sewer system and pythons in the Chicago subway?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/paris-hilton-chihuahua2.jpg320221Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-12 15:06:042013-06-12 15:06:04Watch Out for the Chihuahua Glut
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $209.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Empire-State-Building.jpg380253Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-11 09:10:242013-06-11 09:10:24July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon Invite
I have got a lot right in the markets lately, especially this year, when 90% of my Trade Alerts went well. But as they say in karate school in Japan, you can?t block all the punches. I certainly missed the opportunity of a lifetime to load up on the stocks of a certain country, which I am about to visit. I?ll give you a hint up front: think edelweiss.
Yes, you guessed it. The Swiss economy has been barely eked out any positive GDP growth ever since Europe began its meltdown a few years ago. Q1, 2013 saw a gain of 0.6%, bringing the year on year figure to a lackluster 1.1%.
While broad swaths of the economy are weak, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, precision instruments, watches and jewelry, the things the Swiss are best at, seem to be holding their own. But it makes America?s 2.5% rate look positively robust by comparison.
Switzerland is certainly a country with many attractions. It is home to world-class companies, like, Nestle, Roche, Novartis, and Swatch. It has perennially run a strong current account surplus. Its 347 banks control assets amounting to seven times the country?s GDP, and account for 40% of stock market capitalization (compared to 10% in the US).
Despite shunning membership in the European Community, it has developed a first class export industry. It is not all about watches, cheese, cowbells, and Swiss army knives.
None of this explains why the Swiss franc has been so weak. Since the August, 2011 peak, the Swiss Franc has plunged by a gut churning 28%, and has been one of the world?s weakest currencies against the greenback. Note that the ETF (FXF) is priced in the inverse to the cash market, meaning that it takes $1.05 to buy one Swiss franc. To give you some long-term perspective on this, the dollar is now 72% cheaper than when I first visited this alpine paradise 43 years ago, when it cost SF3.00 to purchase a buck.
As strong as the fundamentals are for Switzerland, they have nothing to do with the strength of the currency. It has long been the flight to safety currency of choice for Europeans. While a director of Swiss Bank Corporation, I personally saw gold bars imprinted with the German eagle secreted there by high-ranking Nazi?s and never reclaimed. This is one theory why the Germans didn?t invade Switzerland during WWII.
Later, asset-protecting investors believed that the Swiss Army?s formidable mountain redoubts could hold the Soviet army at bay. To this day, there are still formidable stockpiles of weapons in the basements of the big Swiss banks, and most of the senior staff double as army officers.
One reason the Swiss franc has been a speculative target is that the country has a Lilliputian GDP of $635 billion, only 4.1% of America?s.
In 2011, the country faced a major currency crisis, as fears of a dollar and euro collapse drove the Swiss franc to an unbelievable all time high of 70 centimes to the dollar. While I was there during the summer, the local newspapers were chock full of stories about factory closings and mass layoffs. The strong Swiss franc was rapidly driving the economy out of business. Much business decamped for Germany, where the cost of production was denominated in far cheaper euros.
In September, 2011 the Swiss National Bank took drastic action. It immediately devalued the Swiss franc against the euro by 10%, and then pegged it there, vowing to spend whatever it takes to maintain the cheaper rate. It took on all comers.
The bold strategy was a huge success, as you can see from the charts below. Some friends at the central bank tipped me off that action was imminent, enabling me to get my readers into the most successful Trade Alert since the inception of this service. Over the course of a weekend, they made close to 400% on Swiss franc puts.
Here comes my big miss. I didn?t execute the second half of the trade. Basic Macro Hedge Trading 101 tells us that weak currencies are always great for local stock markets. That was definitely the case in Switzerland, where the equity ETF (EWL) has since posted an eye popping 55% return. That makes it one of the top performing European bourses, despite its feeble economy.
Did I do the trade? Nope? Perhaps one 4X gain in Switzerland was enough?
As penance for my oversight, I shall be punished severely. When I visit Switzerland in a few weeks for a fresh round of high altitude climbing, the mountains will no doubt claim their share of blisters, cuts, and rope burns. A hangover or two as well may enter the picture, as well. Those guides drink like fish.
At least the fondue, r?sti potatoes, raclette, and schnapps will be cheaper.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/FXF-6-10-13.jpg443574Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-11 09:07:222013-06-11 09:07:22My Big Miss in Switzerland
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
Essential Website Cookies
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
Google Analytics Cookies
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.