Global Market Comments
July 16, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TIME TO GET ON THE DISNEY BANDWAGON),
(TESTIMONIAL)
I am sitting in the transit lounge of Mohammed V airport in Casablanca, Morocco.
Women in brightly colored, flowing burkas, reflecting disparate Berber tribes, sit impatiently, waiting flights to the remote corners of the kingdom. Their hyperactive children are running around aimlessly, their screams eloquently bouncing off the cavernous ceiling.
My flight is seven hours late, and I am the only westerner in the airport. Ah, the joys of travel.
When I was three years old, in 1955, my parents took me to the opening day of Disneyland in Anaheim, California. Tickets were impossible to get, and on the first day, more than 10,000 tried to get into the fabled theme park, more than double the capacity.
However, my dad knew Walt?s brother, Roy Disney, and managed to gain us entry.
Right there on Main Street was Walt himself, greeting each guest as they strolled down an avenue from yesteryear. We lined up to shake his hand, and when my turn came, I pulled out my cowboy cap gun and shot Walt at point blank range.
He smiled, and to my delight, he feigned an agonizing death. My embarrassed mother hurriedly hustled me aside.
I never forgot that incident. Walt Disney was ever the entertainer, although later I learned he was a real bastard to work for, a screamer of the first order.
Some 60 years later, and 49 years after his passing from lung cancer in 1966 (he was an inveterate chain smoker), Walt Disney Corp. (DIS) is still going strong.
It survived the financial crisis in fine fettle. It went on an aggressive round of acquisitions, cherry picking the entertainment industry of its crown jewels. It is now poised to see its earnings go ballistic as the global demand for quality content explodes.
If there was ever a company that had pixie dust sprinkled upon it, this is it.
You would not think that Disney would be piquing my interest here, with the failure of the just released Tomorrowland, and the disastrous Lone Ranger two years ago.
But without anyone noticing, Disney has in recent years turned into a monster global conglomerate.
It bought Steve Jobs? Pixar in 2006, locking up the best programming in animation (Toy Story, Finding Nemo, and the present runaway hit, Inside Out). It picked up Marvel Entertainment in 2009 (Iron Man, Spiderman, the Incredible Hulk, and Captain America). It paid $4 billion to my friend George for Lucas Entertainment in 2012 (the Star Wars monopoly).
Bet you didn?t know Disney owned the sports money machine ESPN, which alone promises to kick in a staggering $4.5 billion in EBITDA this year, accounting for 28% of group earnings.
As a result, Disney has created an entire ecosystem of products, not unlike Apple?s (AAPL). Watch a film, and you end up buying the toys, games, clothes, TV show, and eventually taking your kids on the ride and the cruises.
This massive content upgrade has enabled them to become the top box office draw of 2015. Incredibly, Avengers: Age of Ultron, a story about a monster who lives inside the Internet and wants to destroy the earth, promises to become one of the top five grossing films of all time.
Apparently, wiping out the planet sells well these days.
This is happening globally!
Nobody has assembled a portfolio of assets with the breadth and depth that Disney has.
What?s more, the tried and true sequel rollout is about to jump to warp speed over the next two years. Through 2017, we will see new iterations of Star Wars, The Jungle Book, Finding Nemo, Toy Story, The Avengers, and Pirates of the Caribbean.
Ring that cash register!
The Star Wars relaunch is particularly interesting, as it means the company is about to capture the lion?s share of the $107 billion a year entertainment based toy and merchandise business. They are already handily beating out competitors Viacom (VIA), Time Warner (TWX), and DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA).
Plastic, made-in-China Wookies, R2D2?s, Darth Vaders, and Millennium Falcons made George Lucas a staggering $27 billion in sales, compared to the $8 billion he took in from films, because the original movie producers considered the rights to such tchotchke worthless.
Indeed, Disney is already dominant in the business, with 300 stores worldwide. Any dad with kids who passed near one of these franchises was always easy prey for a $50 hoodie or princess doll.
A synchronized revival of the global economy means the marquee park business is going from strength to strength. A new one near Shanghai is about to open and become the biggest ever.
It seems that opening a Disneyland near a city of 25 million upwardly mobile consumers is always a good idea. The second a new middle class Chinese consumer joins the western economy, they want to buy a set of mouse ears.
Even the perennial loser, Disney Paris, the only park that serves wine, is turning around, thanks to the European Central Bank?s new, aggressive program of quantitative easing. Ironically, Disney bonds are among the hundreds of private issues that the ECB is hovering up.
Walt was always fascinated with technology. His first animated cartoon, Steamboat Willie, which introduced Mickey Mouse to the world in 1928, was state of the art. He blew audiences away with Fantasia in 1939, inventing new three-dimensional glass plate cameras to do so.
Disney became the first customer of two struggling engineers working out of a Palo Alto garage, who went on the form Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Their homemade oscilloscopes provided sound for the movie.
From a trading and investment perspective the story here gets better. (DIS) shares are trading at 18 times 2016 projected earnings of $18 a share. That compares to other competitors trading at higher multiples with lower earnings growth.
It is a rare instance of the best quality growth selling at a discount. This means that the stock could easily rise another 50% over the next two years based on what Disney already has in place.
All of this makes (DIS) stock fodder for a low risk, in-the-money, vertical call spread, even a long dated one. It seems to be the stock that perpetually goes up, ideal for long-term portfolios as well.
Of course, I always add the proviso to buy on a pullback. Good luck finding one of those. The shares have only seen a single 15% decline in the past year (in October).
However, the second I see one, I?ll be knocking out a Trade Alert as fast as I can write it.
Mickey?s Mandarin is Improving, Goofy, Not So Much
I hope that this note finds you well.
Thank you for everything you do to make my world a better place. I am simply, grateful.
Please let JT know I said he?s earned every minute of his upcoming vacation.
I am grateful he challenged me to do more, and that I accepted.
I hope our paths cross soon, until then stay inside & hydrate.
Thank you again?. :)
Bill,
North Carolina
?I keep six honest serving men. (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When and How and Where and Who.? said the writer, Rudyard Kipling.
Global Market Comments
July 15, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(FLYING WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON)
Global Market Comments
July 14, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 MILAN, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(REPORT FROM LONDON),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Come join me for lunch at the?Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s?Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Milan, Italy on Wednesday, July 22, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $267.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a boutique Hotel in the downtown area of the city near the Galleria and the Duomo Cathedral.
Milan is one of the great renaissance cities of Italy. Even your local neighborhood trattoria?serves the best food on the planet.
I am spending a few days there to visit the 2015 Milan Expo, which is expecting 20 million visitors this year (click here?for the website).
Not far from the hotel you can view Leonardo da Vinci?s greatest masterpiece,?The Last Supper?at the Santa Maria delle Grazie church.
Opera lovers will find?La Scala?just around the corner, which is doesn?t perform during the summer, but offers a fascinating museum and tour.
And if you like to shop, Milan is your town, as it the fashion capital of the world. Every year, I find the pull of the local?Brioni?store irresistible.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please?click here.
I write this to you from my double suite on the Orient Express crossing the Swiss Alps. My manservant, Charles, is off fetching a cup of tea and steam pressing my white dinner jacket for tonight?s luxury soiree.
Customs at London?s Heathrow airport was a breeze, and the new express train whisked me into Paddington in a mere 18 minutes.
That night at the Naval & Military Club, a group of British Army officers just back from Afghanistan, and their dates, hosted a blowout black tie homecoming party, complete with disc jockey and disco ball.
While singing a drunken ?Rule Britannia? at 4:00 AM we maxed out the amplifiers and ended up blowing the power, not only for our building, but for the entire block.
Suddenly, our 18th century building was plunged back to the 18th century, meaning no lights, Internet, or flushing toilets. Candelabras solved the first problem, and a pink hard copy Financial Times the second, but when nature called, I had to retire to the pub across the street.
Each time I did so, I enjoyed a pint of Fuller?s London Pride, not sure if I was making my problem better or worse. Two days later, two truck sized diesel generators on loan from the British Army magically showed up and solved the power problem, and we returned to the 20th century.
In England, it?s always been all about who you know.
The next morning, I staggered out of the club, my eyes blinking at the light, my head pounding, to be greeted by 1,500 cyclists, completely naked in all their glory.
It was some form of protest against the use of cars in the city. London never changes, does it? It is only a matter of time before the movement migrates to the states, I hope.
The Globe Theater is a magnificent reproduction of the original, which burned down in 1613 during a canon scene in Henry VIII (click here for the link at http://www.shakespearesglobe.com/).
Its thatched roof, open-air seats, and 12-inch roughhewn oak beams led me to expect The Bard from Stratford-upon-Avon to walk out any moment. Actors tore through the standing crowds, reciting lines, and embracing a startled few theatergoers.
Half way through As You Like It, I realized that the devotees sitting next to me were mouthing the lines. They had memorized the entire script.
One afternoon I asked a somewhat doddering old taxi driver to take me to Kensington Palace, who seemed quite impressed. He drove me directly to Harry and Kate?s private entrance.
After giving me the gimlet eye, Scotland Yard directed us to the correct entrance for the tourists. I try not to cause international incidents when on vacation, and this time I came close.
England definitely did not show its best face when I walked out of a comedy club into Leicester Square at 2:00 AM. The women were so drunk that they walked barefoot across the vomit-covered pavement, unable to walk in high heels.
Another day found me at Christie?s auction house for a private viewing of John James Audubon?s spectacular Birds of America. The multi-volume set was in mint condition, the colors as bright as the day they were printed.
Only 70 of the original print run of 140 in 1838 are known to exist. One sold for $11.5 million last year, making it the world?s second most valuable book after the Gutenberg Bible.
My last morning in London found me desperately hailing a taxi in a torrential downpour. The taxi gods smiled upon me, and I was soon barreling down the streets of Piccadilly and Westminster on the way to Victoria Station.
It seems that a ?20 tip can move mountains here. I arrived with more than enough time for a pre-prandial glass of Champagne before boarding the Orient Express.
To be continued.
?If they don?t screw things up in Washington, stocks here are undervalued. If they do, then stocks are overvalued,? said hedge fund manager, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management.
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