It was with an enormous sense of pride and relief that I watched the last of my kids graduate from the University of California at Berkeley. Clutching his hard fought degree in political economics in hand, Robert posed for photos among friends, with thousands of beaming parents looking on. His mother died ten years ago, and raising three kids alone, getting them through top colleges, and launching them into the world has not been easy.
There is nothing more electric than attending a ceremony like this. The commencement speaker was former Secretary of Labor and my old friend, Robert Reich, whose classes I attended myself. Some 40% of the graduates were Asian, and I spent much of the time explaining symbolism rooted in the Middle Ages to foreign parents; the robes, mantles, hoods, and swatches of ermine. A dozen unintelligible foreign languages babbled in the background.
Unfortunately, the unenviable task of moving him out of his Berkeley hovel fell to me. When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were piled with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam of university life cast aside by fleeing students. Computer desks, stained mattresses, broken lava lamps, and an assortment of heavily worn Ikea furniture were there for the taking.
Next year?s sophomores and juniors were foraging en masse, looking for that reusable gem. Diminutive Chinese teenagers were seen pushing massive suitcases on wheels down the sidewalk on their way back to Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong. The university attempted to bring order to the chaos by strategically placing dumpsters on every block, but they were rapidly filled to overflowing.
It was all worth it in the end because of the insight it gave me into one of my favorite, least known leading economic indicators. When I picked up the truck at U-HAUL, the lot was absolutely packed with returned vehicles, and there were more parked on both sides of the streets. The booking agent told me there is a massive influx of people moving into California from the Midwest and the Northwest, with the result being that lots all over the San Francisco Bay Area are filled to capacity.
I love this company, because in addition to providing a great service, they get the first indication of any changes to the migratory habits of Americans. The last time I saw this happen was after the dotcom bust, when thousands of technology savvy, newly unemployed pulled up stakes in the foggy city and moved to Lake Tahoe to work in ?the cloud.? Bottom line: California is enjoying a resurgence of hiring and new economic growth.
UC Berkeley is the world?s greatest public university, producing more PhD?s than any school in history, over 100,000, and also the most Nobel Prizes, at 19. By the way, anyone in the financial services industry looking to hire an ambitious young graduate from this fabulous institution of high learning, please send me an email. Robert lives in New York City now and is on the prowl for a job with a hedge fund.
I am writing to you from the poolside cabana number B-2 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is an unseasonably cool 70 degrees in the shade and the air is bone- dry, so I?m on my third banana daiquiri for the day. The days when I risked getting my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack have long since passed, so I am able to relax. That?s how I had to work my way through college. May Bugsy Siegel rest in peace.
It is shocking what passes for a tattoo these days, and where they end up. I see young women with elaborate Chinese and Japanese characters inscribed in some pretty immodest locations. Reading this unfathomable language myself, I can tell you that they look like they were brushed by a two year old or are completely unintelligible. It is sad that kids are making such awful decisions these days. I predict a raging bull market in companies that make tattoo removal equipment.
I?ve never been big on regulation, having spent a lifetime in financial services, aviation, and the oil industry, the three most scrutinized industries on the planet. But really, a 400-pound woman in a bikini? There ought to be a law! Lycra should be a privilege and not a right!
I have to tell you that the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference (SALT) is the best investment event I have ever attended, bar none. Never have I seen such a concentration of great minds so willing to share with the general trading community market-bending views on all assets classes, long and short. The cost for the four day assembly is a bargain at the price, given that you will probably make all of this back, and much more, on your next trade. This is an education that can make, or break, your year.
SALT was hosted by Anthony Scaramucci, the managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, LLC. a world class networker and high profile operator in the hedge fund industry. Scaramucci is the author of two books, The Little Book of Hedge Funds: What You Need to Know About Hedge Funds but the Managers Won?t Tell You, and Goodbye Gordon Gekko: How to Find Your Fortune Without Losing Your Soul.
SkyBridge Capital II, LLC (?SkyBridge?) is a research driven alternative investment firm with approximately $7.6 billion in total assets under advisement or management. Talk about eating your own cooking!
The firm offers hedge fund investing solutions that address a wide range of market participants from individual retail investors to large institutions. Their businesses include commingled funds of hedge fund products, customized separate account portfolios and hedge fund advisory services. To learn more about their services, please visit their website http://www.skybridgecapital.com.
Unfortunately, there was a total press blackout on the marquee names, and the intelligence provided was for ears only. You can?t blame these guys for being gun shy. All have been grievously misquoted by the press in the past. This can be a dicey problem when their comments are market moving and they already own big positions. Given the choice between a restrained, politically correct views approved by compliance departments, and the real, but unquotable, skinny, I?ll definitely take the later.
Non-stop panel discussions kept us all up to date on the many urgent issues facing hedge funds and their investors today. Fee discounts for size, once unheard of, are now becoming common. There is a rise in the customization of accounts for specific clients. Risk control and transparency have improved dramatically since the 2008 crash. Concerns about the popping of the bond market bubble were almost universal.
Peripheral to the large conference halls were two vast meeting rooms, one with 100 tables, another with 50 white upholstered sofas. There, an army of young, fresh faced marketing reps sold a panoply of hedge fund products to a flotilla of hardened and wizened end investors. Reading the body language was fascinating. Some small hedge fund managers articulated their own strategies to potential partners. Every 30 minutes, the buyers of services rotated tables. You could almost feel the energy of the deals getting done and commerce coursing through the air. God bless America!
Whenever an empty seat appeared between appointments, I seized it and asked the marketers to give me their pitch. I collected about two dozen. All I can say is the variety of specialized products and services offered by the hedge fund industry today is breathtaking, as is the professionalism of the ever younger participants. There are now 22 major hedge fund strategy descriptions, some with another half dozen subdivisions. You need a PhD in math from MIT to understand some of them. You can now outsource any service to third party providers.
At night, the guests were treated to a blowout party around the Bellagio?s ornate swimming pool complex. A Latin band boomed out the music, and the torsos of dancers gyrated wildly in true bacchanalian fashion. Comely waitresses served all the iced tequila shots you could drink. The hotel wisely stationed lifeguards around the pools in case a drunken reveler fell, or was thrown in. It was all a scene worthy of The Great Gatsby.
Because I recently started posting my pictures on the site, I was mobbed by fans, dispensing some 200 business cards that evening. Why do I feel like the protagonist, Nick Carraway? Or am I Jay Gatsby himself?
When I first jumped into the industry 30 years ago, there were only two dozen hedge funds managing a miniscule amount of money, and we all knew each other. Most of Wall Street thought we were all crooks. Now you have 10,000 funds managing $2.5 trillion, accounting for 50%-70% of all trading volume. Pension funds have made the industry respectable, and huge.
Asian readers still have the opportunity to sign up for the Singapore SALT Conference to be held on September 24-27, 2013 (click here for the link). After that, you will have to wait for the Las Vegas conference in May, 2014.
Oh, did I tell you how hard it is to get your clothes off when they are soaking wet? My dry cleaner is going to hate me.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/SALT-Badge.jpg478283Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-14 09:12:232013-05-14 09:12:23Report on the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference
As with all of my visits to Sin City, I made a beeline to my inside guy ? a blackjack dealer at Caesar?s Palace. It?s been a slow summer and an even slower fall. With global warming delivering the hottest summer in history, the last place tourists wanted to visit was the desert. Midwesterners have been particularly hard hit, as the heat has caused crop failures on a Biblical scale and shriveled incomes. Still, business has been infinitely better than 2008-2009, and most hotels are modestly hiring.
It is wonderful strolling through the finally completed City Center. The glitzy, ultra-modern, Cesar Pelli designed, 16.8 million square-foot, 63- acre complex occupies a quarter-mile on the city?s fabled Strip between the Bellagio and the Monte Carlo Hotels.
It will unquestionably become one of the hedonist Wonders of the World. It includes the Mandarin Oriental, Aria, Veer, Vdara, and Harmon Hotels, offering 4,000 rooms and 2,600 condos. They are adorned by two casinos, a convention center, a new theater for a Cirque du Soleil show called Zarkana, and parking for 6,900.
No matter how healthy the rebound in Las Vegas may be, the forlorn Fontainebleau Resort remains abandoned. The $3 billion, 4,000 room, 68 story hotel, casino, and condo project was to be one of the city?s grandest yet. It was 95% complete when the crash hit and construction ground to an immediate halt, wiping out all of the original equity investors. Nobody does creative destruction like America.
Corporate raider, Carl Icahn, bought it for $156 million, then flipped the furniture for $200 million, getting the hotel for free. He is sitting back waiting for a foreign sovereign wealth fund to buy him out at a huge profit. That is what Carl does, bless his soul. In the meantime, the towering structure stands as a monument to the hubris, greed, and excesses of the 2000?s.
My global strategy luncheon at the Bellagio was a total blast, as usual. There was much speculation on the market impact of QE infinity, how the energy revolution was changing the investment horizon, when the bond market bubble would finally burst, and the chances of war with Iran. The guessing game was for which taxes would go up and how much. One gentleman from Canada kindly informed me that since January, he had made $1 million for his personal account from Trade Alerts on the Japanese yen. That?s why I do this job, to level the playing field for the regular guy.
However, navigating this immense convention center can be devilish. Some of my guests went to the U.S. Aids Conference in error, while some of the AIDS people visited my lunch by accident. They were politely redirected. This is why I tell people to allow an hour just to get from the parking lot, past the dancing girls and craps tables in the Casino, to their seat at my table.
I always enjoy doing these lunches, as the feedback I gain from readers is invaluable. Not only do I learn about new, unexplored asset classes and local micro business trends, there are always good suggestions on how I can improve my own service. I also have to confess that hearing about the latest Internet rumors and conspiracy theories is a real hoot. I tell people that all tips obtained from the Internet should be assumed to be wrong, unless, of course, they come from my own newsletter.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Slot-Machines.jpg262345Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-14 09:03:172013-05-14 09:03:17Report From Las Vegas
Constantly chained to my MacBook Pro at home writing this letter, it is not often that I am in the room when a major market-moving event occurs. That is what happened at the SkyBridge Alternatives Asset Conference (SALT) in Las Vegas on Thursday (click here for the link at http://www.saltconference.com/).
I was listening to one of the legendary titans of the hedge fund industry make the case for Japan. According to the rules of engagement, I can?t tell you who he was, or I would have to kill you. I don?t want to do that because if you?re dead, you might not renew your subscription, and that would be bad for business. But I can pass on the gist of his arguments, which are already well known to the readers of this letter.
He said Japanese companies have tremendous leverage to a falling yen. The Bank of Japan was doing what was necessary to move the yen down from ?100 to ?110 to the dollar. The game changer will come when the government announces its restructuring plan in a few months.
Therefore, Japan?s TOPIX Index at a 13-14X earnings multiple looks cheap. That?s why his fund has been running a major long Japanese stock/short yen position since last year. If he is right, a Nikkei average of 20,000 is in the cards, up another 36% from last night?s close.
I was watching the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) tick on my iPhone 5s as he spoke. It immediately gapped down 100 basis points. I surveyed the room and saw many heads bowed, fingers furiously typing the news to trading desks, or entering their own ?SELL? orders into online trading platforms.
That smashed the cash market through major resistance at the ?100 barrier, a new four year low. If I had been as digitally endowed, I would have sent out my own Trade Alert to dump the yen. But I?m not. By the Friday opening the next day, (FXY) had given up an additional 100 basis points.
I had been holding back on selling the yen in recent weeks for several reasons. First, we have covered a lot of ground very quickly, the beleaguered Japanese currency plunging 25% in just six months. That is prompting Japanese owners of the $2 trillion in direct and indirect foreign assets to realize some of the recent $500 billion in paper gains. That creates yen buying and downward pressure on the dollar.
Finally, my own trading gains have been so enormous this year, up some 35%, that I am becoming less inclined to stick my neck out and take inordinate risks. Trading has become more of a cherry picking game.
However, the yen?s move through ?100 has been so violent, and on such big volume, that it looks like the real deal. That means the old ?100 upside resistance level now becomes support. That equates to $101.00 in the (FXY). So my (FXY) June, 2013 $100-$103 in-the-money bear put spread actually looks pretty cautious.
This lines up nicely with my own long term downside target for the yen of ?150. This may sound like one of those outrageous predictions one finds so often on the Internet. For me it is not such a stretch. When I first arrived in Tokyo in 1974 and Nixon was taking the US off the gold standard, the yen had just devalued from the old Dodge Line of ?360 to ?305. The move I am predicting represents a give back of only a quarter of the gains since then.
If I am right, it would make my hedge fund friend?s upside predictions for the Nikkei look downright conservative. It would take the ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS) from $68 to over $110. It would also boost the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedge Equity ETF (DXJ) from $49.67 to as high as $100.
I indicated to readers at the beginning of the year that this could be the trade that keeps on giving, like having a rich uncle. It looks like, so far, I am right.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Japanese-Girl-e1414074431163.jpg280400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-13 09:19:322013-05-13 09:19:32Japan is Just Getting Started
Featured Trade: (THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030) (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB MCTEER), (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (SJB), (JNK), (CORN)
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Long time readers of this letter know too well that I have been hugely negative on the sector since late 2005, when I unloaded all of my holdings (click here for ?The Hard Truth About Residential Real Estate?).? However, I believe that ?forever? may be on the extreme side. Personally, I believe there will be great opportunities in real estate starting in 2030.
Let?s back up for a second and review where the great bull market of 1950-2006 came from. That?s when a mere 50 million members of the ?greatest generation?, those born from 1920 to 1945, were chased by 80 million baby boomers born from 1946-1962. There was a chronic shortage of housing, with the extra 30 million individuals never hesitating to borrow more to pay higher prices. When my parents got married in 1948, they were only able to land a dingy apartment in a crummy Los Angeles neighborhood because my father was an ex-Marine. This is where our suburbs came from.
Since 2005, the tables have turned. There are now 80 million baby boomers attempting to unload dwellings on 65 million generation Xer?s who earn less than their parents, marking down prices as fast as they can. As a result, the Federal Reserve thinks that 45% of American homeowners either have negative equity, or less than 10% equity, which amounts to nearly zero after you take out sales commissions and closing costs. That comes to 70 million homes. Don?t count on selling your house to your kids, especially if they are still living rent-free in the basement.
The good news is that the next bull market in housing starts in 10 years. That?s when 85 million millennials, those born from 1988 to yesterday, start competing to buy homes from only 65 million gen Xer?s. The next recession will probably knock another 25% off real estate prices. Think 1982 again. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be long gone, meaning that the 30-year conventional mortgage will cease to exist.
All future home purchases will be financed with adjustable rate mortgages, forcing homebuyers to assume interest rate risk, as they already do in most of the developed world. With the US budget deficit problems persisting beyond the horizon, the home mortgage interest deduction is an endangered species, and its demise will chop another 10% off home values.
To make matters worse, Ben Bernanke?s current massive monetary expansion assures that there will be one at least one, and possible two interest rate spikes by 2030. If you think the real estate market is bad now, wait until mortgage rates hit 18%.
For you millennials out there just graduating from college now, this is a best-case scenario. It gives you 10 years to save up the substantial down payment banks will require by then. You can then swoop in to cherry pick the best neighborhoods at the bottom of a 25 year bear market, much like your grandparents did in 1954. People will no doubt tell you that you are crazy, that renting is the only safe thing to do, and that home ownership is for suckers. That?s what people told me when I bought my first New York coop in 1982 at one-tenth its current market price.
Just remember to sell by 2060, because that?s when the next intergenerational residential real estate collapse is expected to ensue. That will leave the next, yet to be named generation, holding the bag, as your parents are now.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/House-on-fire.jpg334316Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-10 01:06:452013-05-10 01:06:45The Real Estate Market in 2030
No one can explain the most complex economic and monetary issues in a simpler, more homespun fashion than former governor of the Federal Reserve, Bob McTeer. He is known for carrying around two yardsticks, one slightly longer than the other, to demonstrate to your average guy the monthly changes in employment.
Bob argues that the Fed is getting a bad rap today. Ben Bernanke?s quantitative easing is neither inflationary, nor causing the collapse of the dollar. This ?money printing effort? is not actually printing any money. The $1.7 trillion QE1 was designed to buy mortgage backed securities to bring liquidity back to the market place. QE2 enabled the purchase of a further $600 billion in Treasury securities to prevent a double dip recession. On top of this, the Treasury piled the $700 billion TARP to recapitalize the major banks. Then came QE3. All four of these programs were wildly successful.
As a result, the Fed balance sheet has grown from a pre-crash $800 billion to $3.5 trillion. Normally this would be inflationary, but it is not this time, as all of the extra money is being tied up with excess reserves at the banks. The proof of this is that the money supply, M2, is growing at a very modest 5%, barely enough to accommodate the population growth. Without the Fed programs the monetary base would have fallen off a cliff.
The challenge going forward is for the Fed to unwind its balance sheet at the same rate that the banks start paring back excess reserve through more aggressive lending. Too slow, and the Fed risks inflation. Too fast, and it risks falling back into recession.
Although it appears that the dollar is in a free fall in the foreign exchange markets, it is in fact at the same level as it was before the financial crisis. All it has really done is given back its flight to safety bid. The dollar is really a function of our international balance of payments and global interest rate differentials. Bob feels that the next big move in the greenback is down.
McTeer points out that the Fed has been a huge cash cow for the Treasury, and ultimately, the taxpayer. QE1 and QE2 took in $120 billion in profits over the last two years. The TARP funds paid a 5% preferred dividend and brought in tens of billions of dollars in profits from the banks, General Motors, and AIG.
Bob views Obama?s $900 billion stimulus package as ?an attempt to shoot a hog with a shotgun.? The big problem is that businesses view such programs as temporary and act accordingly. Permanent changes to government policies get you more bang for the buck.
Bob, 72, was probably one of the last people in Texas to use a functioning outhouse. He grew up in rural Ranger, Georgia, the son of a truck stop operator, and his first brush with the real economy was pumping gas and picking cotton. Somehow, he scored an economics degree from the University of Georgia, and went on to work at the Federal Reserve. He was named president of the Dallas Fed in 1991, and went on to pioneer the analysis of the impact of technology on the macro economy. Bob is simple, but he is no lightweight. He served as a chancellor of Texas A&M University, with 100,000 students. Today, he serves asa Dirctor of Beal Bank (Plano) and Beal Bank USA.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/McTeerRobert1.jpg239320Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-10 01:05:392013-05-10 01:05:39Breakfast With Fed Governor Bob McTeer
When you look at the profusion of new ETF?s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous.
But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you hit a barn. That was the case a year ago when the corn ETF was launched (CORN), after five months of stagnant performance by the grain. I smelled a bargain for my readers, piled them into the ETF the day it launched, and caught a quick double in six weeks, just as the Russian fires were igniting.
That?s why I am getting interested in the new ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). After riding the bull move in junk all the way up with (JNK), I have recently turned negative on the sector. Junk bonds have moved too far too fast. Current spreads for junk paper are now only 300 basis points over equivalent term Treasury bonds, and investors at these levels are in no way being compensated for their risk.
If the stock market starts to roll over this summer, as I expect, then the junk bond market will follow it in the elevator going to down to the ladies underwear department in the basement. Keep in mind that when shorting the junk market, you run into the same problem you have with the (TBT), a leveraged short ETF for the Treasury bond market. Buy the (SJB) and you are short a 6% coupon, which works out to a monthly costs of 50 basis points. That is a big nut to cover. So timing for entry into this fund will be crucial.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Car-Junk.jpg225322Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-10 01:04:102013-05-10 01:04:10Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF
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