Featured Trade: (IS THE PARTY OVER?), (SPY), (INDU), (IWM), (FXY), (YCS), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV), (FXE), (RUMBLINGS IN TOKYO), (FXY), (YCS), (TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
The simple answer is no, not yet. But the neighbors have complained about the noise and called the cops. Today?s 108-point drop in the Dow, and 19-point decline in the S&P 500 does mean that the straight line, parabolic phase of the bull market is over.
One of the most overbought markets in history is finally taking a pause. We traders are now going to have to work a little harder to earn our crust of bread.
Of course, I saw this one coming a mile off. I was expecting some short of dump as the March sequestration recklessly approached. That?s why I have been running hefty 50% in short positions against even beefier longs.
It is also why there has been a recent dearth of Trade Alerts, only two in the last two weeks, the least since last July. Rather than add to longs up here in the stratosphere, I instead let my existing call spreads rapidly recede in my rear view mirror.
We saw the selloff spread across all asset classes, like the waves propagated by an empty champagne bottle tossed into a swimming pool. The Euro (FXE) took a big hit against the dollar, plunging more than a cent. Gold (GLD) absolutely took it on the kisser, cratering $42, followed by silver (SLV), down $1. Crude gave back $2.50. Thankfully, the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) only churned. Strangely, Treasury bonds (TLT) barely moved when they should have been up at least two points, continuing their recent stagnation near one year lows.
This was the correction that was begging to happen. You saw it in the Volatility Index (VIX) that was probing new five year lows. You almost needed a microscope to detect the recent daily trading ranges.
All it took was some out of date Fed notes to light the match. Suddenly, there are more members opposed to infinite and unending quantitative easing than previously understood. Perhaps it could end sooner than later? So that was a surprise? Hey, you live by the Fed, you die by the Fed.
So how much pain do we have to suffer before our assault on 1,600 resumes? The no brainer retracement level from here is the 50-day moving average across all the indexes. That works out to 1,471 for the (SPX), (-2.6%), 13,569 for the Dow (-2.6%) and 87.23 for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), (-4.0%).
As for the positions in our model-trading portfolio, we are in pretty good shape. Our short positions in the (SPY) are now clearly toast and should expire at zero on March 15, only 17 trading days from here. We may take some heat on our equity longs. But for us to really lose money on them, the markets would have to give up almost all of their 2013 gains. I don?t see that happening. If I am right, the year to date performance should grind up to an eye-popping 32% in three weeks.
We have a shot at a dream scenario here. Let the market fall, but not enough to touch our call spreads. Everything expires at their maximum point of profitability in mid March. Then we will have a 100% cash position right at the bottom of a correction.
Next, we replay the whole strategy one more time to make another 30%. We?ll do that by piling into call spreads for the indexes again, as well as single stock spreads for cyclicals, like industrials and consumer discretionaries, and health care. One can only hope.
As one often hears when traveling around Asia, the Chinese character for crisis is also the one for opportunity. Looks like more are just setting up just over the horizon.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Party-Girl.jpg381595Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-21 09:24:032013-02-21 09:24:03Is the Party Over?
I spent ten years of my life tramping in and out of Japan?s Ministry of Finance headquarters in Tokyo?s Kasumigaseki district. It was a dreadful reinforced steel and concrete affair with a dull grey tile siding that was so solidly built that it was one of the few structures in the city to survive WWII. But the building offered spacious prewar dimensions, with lovely high ceilings, and I never tired of walking its worn hardwood floors. I was there so often that some government officials thought I worked there, and they did eventually give me an office, the first ever granted to a foreign correspondent.
So to get an update on the Land of the Rising Sun I called a senior official whose father I knew well as a Deputy Minister of Finance for International Affairs during the 1970?s. I was a regular at his apartment in Shinjuku on Saturday nights, where we spent endless hours alternately playing chess and Scrabble over a bottle of Johnny Walker Red and smoking acrid Mild Sevens. We did everything we could to expand each other?s? Japanese and English vocabularies with the words not found in dictionaries. When the bottle was almost finished and his face was beet red, the Elvis impersonations would start.
My friend told me that the ongoing strength of the yen is rapidly becoming a major political issue in Japan. The spot market is threatened an all-time high only three months ago, and on a trade-weighted basis it was already at a new peak. Exporters were getting destroyed by the strong yen, which was making their goods increasingly expensive in a cost cutting competitive world.
This was forcing them to accelerate a 20-year effort by corporations to offshore production to China, which was ?hollowing out? Japan, and causing economic growth to bleed away, and unemployment to rocket. The situation was getting so bad that American companies that offshored jobs to Japan years ago, like Caterpillar (CAT), were taking them back home because labor costs are so high. His fears were confirmed by a Japanese GDP that shrank in Q4, 2012.
His masters have made repeated comments in the Diet, the Japanese Parliament, made comments in the Diet this week about his concern over yen strength. More specifically, the road is now clear is seeking approval for a much more aggressive stance to pursue Bernanke style quantitative easing to knock the stuffing out of the yen and stimulate the economy.
This time, the ministry has much more ammunition to work with. Japan has been running its first trade deficit in 30 years. This may not be an anomaly. In response to the tsunami induced melt down at the Fukushima plant, Japan is permanently shutting down a large part of its nuclear power generating capacity. At its peak, nuclear accounted for 25% of the country?s electric power supply. That is forcing a huge surge in oil imports from the Middle East that has greatly tipped Japan?s balance of trade against it. Crude?s recent surge from $84/barrel to as high as $98 has only made matters worse.
He then told me that, he too, was now learning to play Scrabble and asked me for my list of words where the letter ?Q? is not followed by a ?U?. I said that I was not inclined to disclose America?s most valuable trade secrets to a foreign competitor. However, in deference to his late father, he couldn?t go wrong starting with ?Qi?, ?Qabala?, ?Qadi?, ?Qaid?, ?Qat? and ?Qanat?. I hung up the phone and immediately sold more yen against the dollar.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Scrabble.jpg370314Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-21 09:18:472013-02-21 09:18:47Rumblings in Tokyo
By now, you are all probably well aware of the firestorm that has erupted between Tesla?s (TSLA) Elon Musk and the New York Times.
It started when the groundbreaking California car maker loaned out a high performance Model S for testing of its East Coast supercharger network to the Times? auto correspondent, John Broder, for a drive from Washington DC to Boston. Broder posted a story that spoke of range anxiety, confused instructions from Tesla, and ended with a picture of a drained S-1 being loaded on to a flatbed truck for return to the company.
Tesla has been down this road before. Two years ago, it lent its Roadster model to Top Gear magazine for a similar test in England. In the lawsuit that followed it was discovered that the correspondents faked a flat battery on camera by pushing a car down the road that actually had sufficient charge. It turns out that headlines shouting disaster sell more car magazines than success.
Once burned, twice forewarned. Every succeeding car loaned by Tesla to a journalist came equipped with a hidden digital data recorder, much like an aircraft ?black box?. In the Times story it showed that Bradford took unreported detours, didn?t fully charge his battery, and frequently enjoyed power draining jackrabbit starts. Musk counter attacked with a blistering blog post that outlined the driver?s, and not the car?s shortfalls (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/most-peculiar-test-drive).
Since I am a pilot, former scientist, an occasional writer for the New York Times, and have a Tesla S-1 performance parked in my garage, I feel uniquely qualified to render an opinion here. The New York Times has it all wrong, and could well have another Jason Blaire scandal on its hands.
When the rest of the media smelled a rat, they duplicated the experiment with great success. For them, it was a rare opportunity to heap mud on the reputation of the competing New York Times. CNBC took the extra step of broadcasting its drive to Boston by reporter Phil LeBeau on live TV.
I have to admit that after sitting on a waiting list for a year, it was with some excitement that I drove to the factory in Fremont, CA to pick up my S-1. The tour was like a trip to the future, with an army of highly animated German made robots precisely assembling the vehicles.
Much of the facility was built from the wreckage of the 2008 auto industry crash. It bought the old GM Corolla factory for a bargain $50 million in stock provided by Toyota. A giant sheet metal press was salvaged from Detroit for scrap metal value of about five cents on the dollar. Today, it employs 2,500, down from the 50,000 GM once needed.
Every car on the assembly line is spoken for. As soon as they are tested they are delivered to beaming new owners in the adjacent show room at the rate of three an hour. There is no inventory. There is virtually no media advertising. It is a business model that any other carmaker would kill for.
The Tesla S-1 is unlike any car that I have ever driven. It is a real beast of a machine, taking five passengers up to a hair raising 130 mph. You can feel the G-forces. The operating manual should include a warning in big bold red letters not to kill yourself on the first day. It is basically a street legal Formula One racecar.
When you approach, flush chrome handles pop out from the doors. There is no key or ignition. Sitting in the driver?s seat activates the power, and the digital instruments panel flashes on. It also instantly synchs with your iPhone 5, displaying your entire iTunes library and address book on an impressive 18-inch screen. Talk about ?wow?!
It is linked to the Internet 24/7. So you can instantly call up the top Yelp rated Japanese restaurant in your area and have Google Maps direct you there, all while driving. The car also upgrades itself. So one morning you sit down and the screen displays 20 new applications that have been updated.
Driving for the first time is a surreal experience. The high performance model gives you instant acceleration to 60 mph in four seconds. There is no delay while one waits for gasoline to course through to the fuel injectors, as one suffers with conventional engines. And you get the same acceleration from 60 to 90 as you do from 0 to 60. Zipping in and out of traffic, it drives more like a video game than a car. This is a pink slip racer?s dream.
You can see that Tesla has completely rethought the automotive experience from the ground up with the intention of maximizing the ?cool? factor. The ordering process is entirely online. There is no more haggling with dealers. Manufacturing has been completely reimagined to cut costs. The vehicle has less than half the number of parts of traditional cars. The motor, alone, shrinks from over 500 parts to a few dozen. All of the components are made at this single plant. There is no waiting for transmissions from Japan, as there is no transmission. There is no heat to manage. It strangely and silently runs at room temperature, so there is no need for a radiator or engine cooling. The aluminum body greatly eliminates weight.
Amazingly, the car has more storage space than my Toyota Highlander SUV. Pop the hood, and you get another trunk, which Tesla dubs a ?frunk?. This titillates friends to no end.
Then there is the notorious range issue. Musk, himself, prepared the speed versus range graph below. Any pilot will instantly recognize this, as we have to memorize one of these for each aircraft type rating. To get the advertised 300 miles you have to use every range extending technique, like slow acceleration, keeping the speed at 55 mph on the flat, and not using heat or air conditioning. If you drive like you are in the Indianapolis 500, as I do, with jump to warp speed starts up to 80 mph, that range drops by half. As it should.
Actually, the car can go 455 miles if you only drive 20 miles per hour. Tesla has offered a prize for the first driver who can document this. What happens in rush hour traffic? The range extends, as it did for me driving back from Lake Tahoe in that awful Presidents Day jam.
What about cost, you may ask? You know me. I bought the most expensive high performance model, with an 85 kWh battery, a 300-mile range, and every option maxed out, including the $3,750 tech package, a $1,500 panoramic sunroof, and the $950 sound studio. That set me back $109,770, with state taxes and fees.
If you are not a highly successful hedge fund Master of the Universe, like John Thomas, then there is a cheaper way to do this. You can buy the stripped down 40 kWh, 160-mile range version for $59,900, which less the $7,500 federal tax credit, comes to $52,400.
Now you need to learn a new form of automotive math. At the special night charging rate of 4.7 cents per kilowatt offered by my local utility, 160 miles costs $1.88. This is the equivalent of buying gas for 30 cents a gallon, the prevailing price when I first learned to drive. Charging at public stations is free. So 20,000 miles a year would run $235.
There are no tune-ups or maintenance, since there is no engine. You only change tires every 60,000 miles since the car is so light, and brake pads every 100,000 since the regenerative power system does most of the slowing.
This compares to $3,200 for 800 gallons of gas, and $1,000 in tune ups for my Highlander hybrid, giving me a net savings of? $3,965 a year. Prorate this out over the guaranteed eight-year life of the 1,000-pound lithium ion battery, and you get $31,720. This brings your true cost, net of fuel and operating costs, down to $20,680. This is not bad for an ultra luxury, head turning, babe magnet of a racecar. You just effectively pay for all the fuel and maintenance for the life of the car up front.
Some 95% of all drivers travel less than 160 miles a day, so that makes a pretty big target market. Also, Tesla is building a nationwide network of fast charging stations for long distance trips that can get you fully juiced up in 45 minutes. This will include corridors that can get you from LA to New York, or Chicago to Houston, and so on. They are located in shopping malls, so the idea is to catch a quick lunch or dinner while getting refueled.
It is really easy to see how the whole Times incident happened. A young underpaid, right-brained journalism major dude is suddenly handed a $110,000 studmobile with a revolutionary new technology, not bothering to read the manual first. I see a Fast and Furious replay punctuated by a nooner in Manhattan and a car that only makes it three quarters of the way there. What did you say the difference between volts and amps was? Then it?s his little red notebook against Elon?s computer log. No contest.
I have to mention another issue here. The entire car establishment absolutely hates this car. This includes the Detroit automakers, their politicians, the automotive press, and the oil industry with fellow travelers. Of course, the foaming right considers it a giant government subsidized liberal conspiracy. Such is always the case when change comes in quantum leaps.
When gasoline powered cars were first introduced in England, Parliament passed a law stating they must at all times be preceded by a man on foot waving a red flag. The repeal of that law in 1905 is still celebrated by an annual race, the Brighton Run. Only cars built before that year are allowed to participate, and I have run it many times (fewer than half finish the 100 miles course).
Check out the jobs section on Craig?s List for New York. I see the Times is looking for a new automotive correspondent.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Tesla-Plant.jpg315416Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-20 09:22:372013-02-20 09:22:37My Take on the Tesla Tiff
Featured Trade: (WHAT?S A POOR BOND MANAGER TO DO?) (TLT), (TBT), (NLY), (CVRR), (CWB), (THE POPULATION BOOM) (WHO EXPENSIVE OIL HURTS THE MOST), (USO)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)
CVR Refining, LP (CVRR)
SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB)
United States Oil (USO)
With the consensus wisdom now pervasive that the 60 year bull market in bonds is over, what is a poor bond fund manager to do? Has he now become the defacto manager of the New York Mets, condemned to reliably losing every season? Pity the hapless financial advisor who has to drag clients, kicking and screaming, out of what has worked so well for the last several decades.
Those who earn their daily crust of bread from the fixed income markets could well be facing a perfect storm in 2013. The headline risk from Europe could vanish, US GDP growth accelerates, and the housing and auto markets continue robust recoveries. A speed up in China?s business activity would be the final nail in the coffin.
What?s more, the action of the Fed could turn the modest weakness we have seen so far into an absolute rout. If they ease too soon, the best bond managers may be able to trade around the gradual rise in interest rates that results.
If the Fed eases too late, real inflation will return, and the risk of a real bond crash presents its ugly face. What is most concerning is that no less a figure than Ben Bernanke himself has said the challenge of getting it right is on the scale of finding a needle in a haystack.
The price for getting it wrong is large. Jack up the yield on ten year Treasuries (TLT) from today?s 2.0% to 4.5%, which some traders believe could happen by the end of this year, and your bond principal plunges by 23%. Here?s a prediction for you: I expect a sudden upsurge in the demand for coronary specialist to skyrocket, as many bond investors suffer heart attacks when they open their yearend statements.
We all could suffer heart failure if conditions in the bond markets get too dire. Drop the value of everyone?s largest holding too quickly, and it could trigger another financial crisis, one that makes 2008 look like a cakewalk. Be careful what you wish for.
There are a few great managers out there who will be able to make money in the bear market. For a start, you de-risk, dumping long dated Treasuries and municipal bonds and anything else with a fig leaf of a low coupon. Shorten duration wherever you can.
A big premium will be paid for bond managers who can be creative and imaginative in squiring their investments. These are the sharp guys who are moving into floating rate loans and high yielding direct bank loans. Their Spanish and Portuguese language lessons are paying off, with cash getting funneled into foreign debt markets that don?t track with the US yield curve. These guys will also get a nice foreign currency kicker in a weak dollar universe.
It might also require managers to expand the definition of the term ?bond? to stay in the black. You saw the equity guys engage in this sort of ?mission creep? when bonds were hot. This might include investing in convertible bonds (CWB) and other various hybrid securities. Investing in the debt of sector winners, like financials and energy, will be a winner. My own favorite in this field are ultra high yield REIT?s (NLY) and Master Limited Partnerships (CVRR).
It?s clear that the salad days are over for bond managers. They are really going to have to pedal hard from here on just to break even. Most will lose money no matter what they do.
Individual investors can give themselves some edge by moving money away from large managers that will suffer the most from shrinking liquidity, and towards smaller, more nimble ones who can dance between the raindrops. Target those with less than $10 billion in assets who can take advantage of smaller, high yielding deals.
Want to try something really gutsy and against the grain? Switch out of California state tax free debt, which has just enjoyed a massive rally thanks to governor Jerry Brown?s budget balancing efforts, into Illinois debt, now the lowest rated in the nation. Neither state is likely to default, and you pick up 80 basis points in yield on the switch. Click here to read ?The Muni Bond Myth? for the reasons why.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Man-Chestpain.jpg307306Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-18 23:03:412013-02-18 23:03:41What?s a Poor Bond Manager To Do?
In their century long coverage of exotic places, cultures, and practices, National GeographicMagazine inadvertently sheds light on broad global trends that deeply affect the rest of us. Plus, the pictures are great. A recent issue celebrated the approach of the world's population to 7 billion, and the implications therein.
Long time readers of this letter know that demographic issues will be one of the most important drivers of all asset prices for the rest of our lives. The magazine expects that population will reach 9 billion by 2045, the earliest date that I have seen so far. Can the planet take the strain? Early religious leaders often cast Armageddon and Revelations in terms of an exploding population exhausting all resources, leaving the living to envy the dead. They may not be far wrong.
A number of developments have postponed the final day of reckoning, including the development of antibiotics, the green revolution, DDT, and birth control pills. Since 1952, life expectancy in India has expanded from 38 years to 64. In China, it has ratcheted up from 41 years to 73. These miracles of modern science explain how our population has soared from 3 billion in a mere 40 years.
The education of the masses may be our only salvation. Leave a married woman at home, and she has eight kids, as our great grandparents did, half of which died. Educate her, and she goes out and gets a job to raise her family's standard of living, limiting her child bearing to one or two. This is known as the ?demographic transition.?
While it occurred over four generations in the developed world, it is happening today in a single generation in much of Asia and Latin America. As a result, fertility around the world is crashing. The US is hovering at just below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family, thanks to immigration. But China has plummeted to 1.5, Europe is at 1.4, and South Korea has plunged as low as 1.15.
Population pressures are expected to lead to increasing civil strife and resource wars. Some attribute the genocide in Rwanda in 1999, which killed 800,000, as the bloody result of overpopulation.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Traffic.jpg266397Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-18 23:02:292013-02-18 23:02:29The Population Boom
Every time the price of oil spikes, we learn vast amounts of information about the global reach of this indispensable commodity. It's like taking a non-core elective in geology at college. So I was fascinated when I found the chart of relative sector winners and losers below.
No surprise that energy does best from sky high crude prices. It is followed by telecommunications and health care. You would also expect consumer discretionary stocks to take it on the nose, as high energy prices almost always lead to a cyclical downturn in the economy. Who is the worst performer of all? Europe, which makes the recent weakness even more understandable.
Europe Will be the Biggest Loser from High Oil Prices
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Before-After.jpg226344Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-02-18 23:01:482013-02-18 23:01:48Who Expensive Oil Hurts the Most
Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 20 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED), (TLT), (TBT), (WATCH SAVINGS RATES FOR INTERNATIONAL MARKET CUES)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
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