Come join Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, June 17, 2014. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $248.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Empire-State-Building.jpg380253Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-16 01:05:112014-06-16 01:05:11Last Chance to Meet John Thomas and Jim Parker in New York on June 17
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JULY 11 SARDINIA, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON),
(COULD YOU QUALIFY TO BECOME A US CITIZEN?)
Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER TOPS 2014 GAIN OF 17.8%), (AAPL), (GOOG), (TLT), (FXY), (THE BEST STOP LOSS OF THE YEAR), (VXX), (SPY), (JUNE 17 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
The industry beating performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has punched through to a new all time high almost every day for the past ten days.
The total return for my followers so far in 2014 has reached 17.82%, compared to a far more modest 4.6% for the Dow Average during the same period. June so far is up a healthy 2.32%.
I managed to pull this off during some of the most difficult trading conditions in market history. Turnover across all asset classes is hitting decade lows (see chart below), and volatility has crashed through the floor.
The three and a half year return is now at an amazing 140.32%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 38%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 40.1%. Not bad in this zero interest rate world. It appears better to reach for capital gains than the paltry yields out there.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud of.
Like most of the industry, I expected May and June to be poor months for risk assets. The market has had a tremendous run over the last two years, and the spring historically heralds a period of seasonal weakness.
Wrong!
One of the toughest things to do in this business is to admit you?re wrong, and then execute an immediate risk reversal in your portfolio.
In the end, the failure of the market to fall meant that it could only go up. We got additional help from month end window dressing, calming events in the Ukraine, and a 7:1 share split at Apple.
What really sent stocks off to the races was the European Central Bank?s surprise move to implement negative interest rates for overnight deposits and expansion of quantitative easing. The moves should add 0.5% to global GDP growth this year.
That?s all I needed to pile into long positions in Caterpillar (CAT), IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), and JP Morgan (JPM). The move also enabled me to take profits in Apple (AAPL) and cover my short in the Japanese yen and the Treasury bond market (TLT). I continue to run an existing long on Google (GOOG).
Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on the move. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my Testimonials Page. They are all real, and new ones come in almost every day.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, was no slouch either. He slapped on a short in the euro (FXE) and a long in the grains (JJG), both of which immediately turned profitable.
What would you expect with a combined 85 years of market experience between the two of us? Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
Don?t forget that Jim clocked an amazing 2013 with a staggering 374% trading profit. That was just for an eight-month year!
The Opening Bell with Jim Parker, a quickie but insightful webinar giving followers an instant snapshot of the market opening every day, has been an overwhelming success. Many customers have already reported dramatic improvements in their trading results.
Watch this space, because the crack team at Mad Hedge Fund Trader has more new products and services cooking in the oven. You?ll hear about them as soon as they are out of beta testing.
Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you. Next out will be the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Channel on YouTube that will enable me to post videos from my frequent travels around the world.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere by the end of 2014.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.
Our flagship product,?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO, costs $4,500 a year. It includes my Global Trading Dispatch?(my trade alert service and daily newsletter). You get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous research database, and live biweekly strategy webinars. You also get Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service and?The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? or ?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO? box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TA-Performance.jpg703543Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-11 01:05:202014-06-11 01:05:20Mad Hedge Fund Trader Punches Tops 2014 Gain of 17.8%
Traders throughout the industry have been left with their jaws hanging open in the wake of the complete collapse of volatility for the S&P 500 (SPY). When the volatility hit the $10 handle a few days ago, it was the lowest level in nearly a decade.
Especially hard hit has been the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX), which has cratered from $56 to $30, some 46%, just since February. I had a bet on last month that this note would hold its multiyear lows around $40.
Think again.
When it broke my 5% rule for non-leveraged instruments, I pulled the ripcord and stopped out at $37.80, paring 1.68% off of my 2014 performance. The (VXX) then went into free fall, breaking $30.
If I was stubborn, insisted that I was right and the market wrong, and shouted at the sea not to rise, like King Canute, this position would have cost me a heart breaking 8.66%. To quote the legendary economist and early hedge fund trader, John Maynard Keynes, ?Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.?
What has been killing the (VXX) has been the contango in the futures market. The managers buy three-month (VIX) futures at higher implied volatilities, and ride them into expiration, when much lower implied volatilities prevail. For example, today, you can buy September volatility for $16, while June is only $11.
The (VXX) managers then roll their cash into the next batch of three-month futures and repeat the process. It is, in effect, a perfect money destruction machine. This is why the (VXX) has plummeted from an all time high of $8,000 to $30 in just five years. S&P 500 volatility has declined from $90 to $11 during the same time.
Why did I recommend purchase of such a suicidal instrument? Because during periods of market weakness, like you normally get in May, you can see dramatic pops in the price of the (VXX) as long only institutions rush to buy downside protection, sometimes on the order of 25%-50%.
Except, this time it was different. It really has been one of those abnormal, mean diverging kind of years, from day one.
It is all a lesson on the value of stop losses. I tell people I practice this discipline because I am too old to go back to Morgan Stanley broke, and start all over again. They probably wouldn?t have me anyway, I am so prone to farting in church.
You may have other reasons.
So it Wasn?t Such a Great Time to Trade Volatility
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Skateboard-Fall.jpg324393Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-11 01:04:532014-06-11 01:04:53The Best Stop Loss of the Year
Featured Trade: (JULY 25 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (IT?S ?RISK ON? AGAIN), (SPY), (CAT), (IBM), (JPM), (MSFT), (AAPL), (TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (LINE), (ELD), (FXE), (ABOUT THAT TESLA RECOMMENDATION), (TSLA)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
?Well, I?ll either be up 25% by the end of June or I just blew up my 2014 performance.?
That is what I told my esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, right after I engineered a major ?RISK ON? adjustment for my model trading portfolio.
If I am right, and bonds peaked and yields bottomed for the year, then my followers will make a fortune. Money will pour out of bonds into shares and other risk assets, taking the indexes up substantially through December.
If I am dead wrong, then the market?s judgment could be harsh.
Welcome to show business.
Starting two weeks ago, a whole range of short-term risk indicators started flashing green lights.
Most importantly, the bond market (TLT), (TBT) topped out, taking with it the entire fixed income space into the toilet, including corporates (LQD), munis (MUB), junk (JNK), and emerging market debt (ELD). Only high yield master limited partnerships (LINE) and REIT?s were spared the decimation.
Then we saw the prices for credit default swaps utterly collapse or the cost of insurance for individual debt instruments. Why buy insurance if you are going to live forever?
Volatility hit decade lows at the $10 handle. Hundreds of large cap and technology stocks broke out to the upside on the charts, taking off like a scalded chimp.
Out went my Trade Alerts to buy (JPM), (IBM), (CAT), and (MSFT). Mad Day Trader Jim Parker successfully sold the euro short (FXE) and bought the grains against it (JJG).
Distress short covering of equities by hedge funds also showed it?s ugly hand. That is, ugly if you?re a hedge fund. Visions of resumes posted on Craig?s List danced in their minds or maybe a future as an Uber taxi driver. All we needed was a few prints of new all time highs by the major indexes, and it was off to the races.
Of course, the spark for the melt up was the healthy May nonfarm payroll report showing a gain of 217,000. The headline unemployment rate maintained a seven year low of 6.3%. When the (SPY) gapped up, it was all over but the crying.
Clearly, the pain trade is to the upside. Many hedge funds are still running net shorts, albeit of substantially reduced size. Active portfolio managers are underweight stocks. Even Apple (AAPL) is under owned as it approaches a new all time high. Hey Apple, post split under $100? Sounds like a bargain to me!
To see all of this happening in June, when stocks are entering a seasonally slow, weak period, is nothing less than amazing. To witness a flat line ?time? correction take place instead of a long overdue ?price? correction over the last three months, right at an all time high, is also a shocker.
This time it really is different.
That means the move in the S&P 500 up 10% by yearend is now a chip shot. It makes my own target of 15% to 2,200, derided by many as ?Mad? when I made it at the New Year, as far more realistic. It?s the story of my life.
Add in 3% of dividend income, and the large cap index could bring in a total return of 18% in 2014. That?s less than the 30% gain we saw in 2013. But it?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
If you want to hear me expound on my current views at length, please listen to my interview on PreMarketPrep at Benzinga TV, by clicking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PQMtT_a7EE .
Could my ?Golden Age? scenario be unfolding early?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Leonard-DiCaprio-e1415560921439.jpg271400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-10 01:04:252014-06-10 01:04:25It?s ?RISK ON? Again
Come join Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, June 17, 2014. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $248.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Empire-State-Building.jpg380253Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-10 01:03:562014-06-10 01:03:56Meet John Thomas and Jim Parker in New York on June 17
Will the person who bought Tesla shares (TSLA) on my recommendation last year at $30 please email me?
I have been traveling a lot recently and lost your email address. I would like to get a testimonial from you. The stock hit $250 earlier this year and is up 833% from your cost, making it one of the best performing shares in US over the last 18 months
With the money you?ve made you can probably buy several Teslas now. I recommend the high performance Model S-1 with the upgraded sound system and the 270-mile range. I have one, and they are to die for.
It?s a bargain at $110,000, considering there is no fuel or maintenance required for the life of the car (the power is almost free in California). And you can get $5,000 worth of state and federal tax refunds and credits for being so green, as well as a white sticker to drive in HOV lanes alone at rush hour. That, alone, will cut an hour off your commute each day
It's the only car I ever bought where the specifications keep improving every month with each automatic software update.
Only last night, the company adopted another one of my recommendations with it?s monthly software upgrade, to highlight public supercharging stations on the navigation system with a red flag, so I can conveniently stop off for a quick 45 minute top up.
Or you can wait until next year and by the four-wheel drive SUV Model X with the gull wing doors. I am on the waiting list for that one as well.
Don?t sell your stock either if you are a long-term player. My friend, CEO Elon Musk, is imminently going to announce the location of his new $5 billion ?gigafactory.? My bet is that California will be the winner of the location battle, as Texas and New Jersey have unwisely banned Tesla sales to protect the local dealer network and the firm is afraid that its workers will be arrested as illegal immigrants in ultra red state Arizona.
The project, one of the largest capital investments in US history, will, in one fell swoop, double global battery production.
That will lay the groundwork for the launch of its ?NextGen? vehicle in 2018. The $40,000, 300-mile range car will take Tesla to a global mass market of 500,000 units a year and more, compared to last year?s nascent, start up 20,000 in sales.
That should take the stock up to $500 in a few years and possibly even $1,000. This is why the investment giants like Fidelity are hanging in there with gigantic long positions.
The other major car companies are so far behind, they will never catch up with the technology. In fact, if you get another chance to buy the shares around $160, I would pick up more.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/JT-with-Tesla-e1427723768460.jpg227400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-06-10 01:03:002014-06-10 01:03:00About That Tesla Recommendation
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