While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $57.70 call for $1.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
DVA Short November 8th - $61.50 call for $0.80
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The market pulled back yesterday after the move up off the Fed announcement. For the day, the S & P 500 closed 9.21 points lower almost giving back the entire gain from Wednesday.
The day closed out at 3,037.56. The close was still about 30 points above the minor 3,007 level, which should be support.
But we have been expecting a short term pullback simply based on the VIX being oversold.
And of course, yesterday it bounced off the major 12.50 level. The question now is how high will it go before it reverses?
This bounce is causing this round of profit-taking.
But, as I have mentioned, the short term 60 minute chart for the S & P is bullish, along with the 30 minute chart, so a pulback should be an opportunity to go long.
The daily price bar closed out at 61% of the range, so there is a slight bias that yesterday's high of 3,046.90 should be violated before the low of 3,023.19.
I mentioned again yesterday that support should be around 3,025 and the low dipped just under it.
And the daily range was 23.71 points, which was a few points under the daily average true range.
The support area from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,035 to 3,042 area.
Yesterday also closed out the month of October.
The October monthly price bar closed at 93.5% of the range. This is very bullish and does suggest that the high will be violated before the low.
The monthly high was 3,050.10. And the range for the month was 194 points, which was greater than the monthly average true range, which is 165 points.
This is also bullish.
Support from the October monthly bar should be around 3,010. The next support level under that is 2,953.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 4 points higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 13.22 yesterday. It moved up 88 cents on the day, wiping out the drop from Wednesday.
The high for the day was 13.95, before the VIX dropped to move under 13.28.
I have been saying that the 13.28 level should be resistance. And it still should be until we close above it.
The 11.72 level should be support. So, watch to see if this holds as support. A break under it and the VIX should head lower.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
At this point, the objective for the S & P should be up to 3,125. The minor 3,027.30 level should still be a support level. And yesterday's low dropped under it, but the market was able to reclaim it.
On the upside, the 3,051.80 level is minor resistance.
3,039 should offer technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77 **
Major level: 196.88 <
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
The QQQ closed at 197.08.
The next minor level on the upside is 197.77. Two closes above this level and the objective should be to 200.
The 196.88 area should offer support. And technical support is around 196.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 Hit!
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 155.45. At this point, the IWM will need two closes above 157.81 to move up to 162.50.
154.69 should still be a support level. And technical support is around 155.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 135.84 **
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 141.24. Support should now be at the 140.63 level.
And the TLT will need two closes above 141.41 to move up to 143.75.
139.84 should offer support. And the minor 138.28 level should as well.
The 140 area should offer technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 142.43. 139.84 is a minor support level. A break under 139.84 and the GLD should drop to 137.
Now that the GLD cleared 140.63, it should head higher. 141.41 should offer support.
The 140 area should offer technical support.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 57.96. Watch for support at the 57.81 level. The XLE needs to clear 58.60 to move higher.
57.81 should offer support on the downside.
Resistance is stll at the midband on the daily chart, which is 61.50. It will have to clear this level to head higher.
Technical support is still around the 57 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 250.00 <
Minor level: 246.88 **
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 248.76. The minor 246.88 level should be support.
Watch to see if Apple can clear 250, which is still the objective. If it can't, it should sell off.
253 is the uppoer band on the daily chart and could be resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, ORLY, FLT, LRCS, AAPL, PANW, RH, CMI, UNP, KLAC, PSX, CELG, TIF,
Bearish Stocks: BA, LOGM, IRBT, RCI, CHL, CBS, NTGR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
