While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 call for $1.35
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 put for $1.38
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Yesterday, we added an uneven straddle on XLNX. If you followed the alert, you should own both the $95 call and put on XLNX that expires this Friday.
The S & P 500 paused slightly yesterday. For the day, it closed 6.04 points to the downside. It closed the day out at 3,087.04.
The market continues to trade in a tight range. The intra day range was only 12.51 points.
And once again, this was less than the daily average true range, which is now 23.02 points. So, the intraday range was about 1/2 the average.
All these contractions suggest that we should see an expansion.
The main question is when? And in what direction?
As I have said on many occasions, it is fairly easy to predict an expansion. Expansions usually follow contractions.
And the opposite is true as well.
So predicting an expansion is really not that difficult to predict. The difficult aspect is to determine when it will happen and in what direction.
With an objective still above the market, I am biased for a move higher. But with the VIX down to long term support, it is possible for price to fall short of the target.
And with a close at 90% of the daily price bar, the odds favor a violation of yesterday's high before the low.
Yesterday's high was 3,088.33 and the low was 3,075.82. If price takes out the high, then the close should be support as well.
The intraday support levels are in the 3,082 to 3,084 area.
Pre open the S & P is trading about 1 point higher.
The support level from last week's weekly price bar, which is in the 3,082 to 3,086 area, should still valid support.
SWKS reports this afternoon after the close. And CSCO reports tomorrow after the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 12.70 yesterday. This puts the VIX back above the major 12.50 long term support level.
At this point, the VIX will need two closes above 13.28 to move up to 15.63. But, it should continue to be resistance until the VIX closed above it.
11.72 is a support level on the downside.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,087.04. The S & P is still holding the minor 3,085.95 level. To move lower, the S & P would need two closes under 3,085.95 to move lower.
So, at this point, it should still be support.
3,076.20 should still be support on the downside. And yesterday's low of 3,075.82 was just under it.
3,083.50 is also a minor level to watch for support.
QQQ:
Major level: 203.13
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78 **
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
The QQQ closed at 200.96. This was the second close above 200.78. At this point, the QQQ should test 203.13.
The next minor level is 200.78. Watch this level today.
Technical support is around 200. And there is a support line at 198.44.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.78. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50.
159.38 is a minor resistance level. The IWM needs to clear this level to move higher. Watch this level again today. If the IWM cannot clear it, it would signal we should see a pullback.
And 157.81 should still offer support.
And 156.25 should still be a major support level. And technical support is around 158.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <<
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 134.91. The bond market reopens today.
Watch the 135.94 level. It should be resistance.
The 138 area should offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 137.06. With a break under 137.50, the GLD should continue lower.
The key level is 134.38. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
Watch this level again today. Adn 137.50 should be resistance.
Technical resistance is around 140.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 60.35. The objective should be to 62.50.
Having said that, the XLE needs to clear the midband, which is 61.34.
Technical support is still around the 50.20 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 <
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91 **
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Apple closed at 262.20. 265.63 should be the objective.
The 265.63 level should be resistance and I would not expect Apple to break above it. At least on this drive.
The upper band is 259.79. This should now be support until it closes under it.
257.81 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, GWW, WCG, COST, NTES, ADBE, AAPL, RTN, NVDA, VRTX, DXCM, BABA, CMI, HON, DE, UNP
Bearish Stocks: WAT, ANET, LOPE, BLUE, FANG, THS, ETSY, FIZZ, OXY, TRIP, OXY, WMB
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
