While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
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DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 call for $1.35
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 put for $1.38
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The S & P 500 ended the day closing 4.85 points higher. The day closed out at 3,091.89.
The high for the day was 3,102.61 or about 23 points under our objective. After topping out, the S & P sold off 10.72. The day closed out at 40% of the daily price bar, which does suggest that the odds favor the low being violated before the high.
Yesterday's low was 3,084.73, so watch to see if this is violated.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,090 to 3,093 area.
Watch this area on a rally.
The daily range ended up at 17.88 points. The daily average true range now reads 22.65 points.
So, once again the daily range contracted. All these contractions will lead to an expansion. The only question is when?
The daily bar ended up being a doji, which does mean indecision. And pre open, the S & P is trading about 9 points lower.
This projects to an open around 3,083 or about 2 points under yesterday's low.
Assuming this trading holds up until the open, the market should take out yesterday's low right at the open. So, this would satisfy the 40% close percentage right at the open.
This would suggest you want to monitor the low of 3,084.73 and the close. These are levels you want to monitor on a rally.
As you know, the market is overbought. The VIX trading around its all-time lows tells us that.
But, the short term trends are bullish, which does suggest that the market will find support if we do see a pullback.
The midband on the 30 minute chart is 3,042. And on the 60 minute chart it is 3,000.
Yesterday's close was about 50 points above the 30 minute midband and about 90 points above the 60 midband.
These would be support levels on a pullback.
This gives you an idea of the ranges the market could pull back and still not affect the uptrend.
SWKS reported last night and is trading $5.50 lower. And CSCO reports today after the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 12.73 yesterday. This is the second close above 12.50. So, watch for support at the major 12.50 level.
Yesterday's high went to 13.10 or 18 cents under the 13.28 level. If the VIX can clear this level today, I would expect it to continue higher.
At this point, the VIX will need two closes above 13.28 to move up to 15.63. But, it should continue to be resistance until the VIX closed above it.
11.72 is a support level on the downside.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,091.84. The S & P is still holding the minor 3,085.95 level. Today's projected open should be just under the minor 3,085.95 level. If the S & P cannot reclaim this level, I would expect more selling pressure.
It is still support until the market closes under it.
3,076.20 should still be support on the downside.
3,083.50 is also a minor level to watch for support.
QQQ:
Major level: 203.13
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78 **
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
The QQQ closed at 201.54. The QQQ got as high as 202.21 or about a point under the 203.13 target.
The next minor level is 200.78. This level should be support.
Technical support is around 200. And there is a support line at 198.44.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.83. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50.
159.38 is a minor resistance level. The IWM needs to clear this level to move higher. Watch this level again today. If the IWM cannot clear it, it would signal we should see a pullback.
And 157.81 should still offer support.
And 156.25 should still be a major support level. And technical support is around 158.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <<
Minor level: 135.84 **
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 135.62. The TLT is oversold and I do expect a bounce.
But, the TLT has had two closes under 135.84, so I would not expect the bounce to exceed 137.50.
And the 138 area should still offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 137.43. With a break under 137.50, the GLD should continue lower.
The key level is 134.38. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125. And yesterday, the GLD managed to hold the level. Watch this level again.
137.50 should still be resistance.
Technical resistance is around 139.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 60.04. The objective should be to 62.50.
Starting to look like it is failing. If the XLE continues to drop, watch to see if it can hold the 59.38 level. If it can, it should rally again. If not, expect more selling.
Technical support is still around the 59.00 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 <
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91 **
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Apple closed at 261.96. 265.63 should be the objective.
The 265.63 level should be resistance and I would not expect Apple to break above it. At least on this drive.
The upper band is 260.91. This should now be support until it closes under it.
257.81 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, GWW, WCG, COST, NTES, ADBE, AAPL, RTN, NVDA, VRTX, DXCM, BABA, CMI, HON, DE, UNP
Bearish Stocks: WAT, ANET, LOPE, BLUE, FANG, THS, ETSY, FIZZ, OXY, TRIP, OXY, WMB
Be sure to check earnings release dates.