While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 call for $1.35
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Yesterday, I suggested you close out the long put on XLNX. At this point, there are two positions that expire tomorrow. The put on DVA, which will no doubt expire worthless and the calls on XLNX.
The S & P 500 ended the day closing out the day 2.07 points higher. The day closed out at 3,093.91.
The high for the day was 3,098.06.61 or about 27 points under our objective.
Yesterday's low was 3,078.80, or about 7 points under the minor 3,085.95 level.
This suggests that the upside objective of 3,125 is still valid. To be cancelled out, the S & P would need two closes under 3,085.95.
Even though the market has traded under this level, it has not closed under it. The S & P continues to hold that minor level.
Therefore, the upside objective is still the valid target.
But, we do know we are on alert because of the simple fact that the VIX is around its all-time lows.
But, like the S & P holding the 3,085.95 level, the VIX cannot close above 13.28. This would be the minor level that would indicate that the VIX should move higher.
The daily price bar closed out at 78% of the range of the daily bar. This does suggest that yesterday's high should be violated before the low.
Support from yesterday should be in the 3,088 to 3,089 area.
The daily range was 19.26 points. Even though this was the largest range this week, it was still below the daily average true range. The daily average true range now reads 22.41 and continues to drop.
As I have said, this is an ominous sign. But, with a higher objective for the market I still feel this market will make a push up before any meaningful pullback occurs.
CSCO reported last night and is trading about $3 lower.
Pre open the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points lower. This would suggest that the market should open around the lower end of the support area. Watch to see how the marekt reacts.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 13.04 yesterday. The VIX managed to close above the major 12.50 level, but it still cannot close above 13.28.
Yesterday's high went to 13.90 or about 60 cents above the 13.28 level. If the VIX can clear this level today, I would expect it to continue higher.
At this point, the VIX will need two closes above 13.28 to move up to 15.63. But, it should continue to be resistance until the VIX closed above it.
11.72 is a support level on the downside.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,093.91. The S & P is still holding the minor 3,085.95 level. As I mentioned above, the S & P continues to trade below it, but cannot close under it.
Today's projected open should be just above the minor 3,085.95 level. Watch to see if the S & P can hold this level. If not, I would expect more selling pressure.
It is still support until the market closes under it.
3,076.20 should still be support on the downside.
3,083.50 is also a minor level to watch for support.
QQQ:
Major level: 203.13
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78 **
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
The QQQ closed at 201.59. The QQQ continues to hold the minor 200.78 level. The low went to 200.71.
This level should continue to be support.
Technical support is around 200. And there is a support line at 198.44.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.15. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50.
The IWM continues to hold the minor 157.81 level. If the IWM does break under this level, I would expect strong support at 156.25.
159.38 is a minor resistance level. The IWM needs to clear this level to move higher. Watch this level again today. If the IWM cannot clear it, it would signal we should see a pullback.
And 157.81 should still offer support.
And 156.25 should still be a major support level. And technical support is around 157.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <<
Minor level: 135.84 **
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 136.50. The TLT is oversold and I do expeect a bounce. And the TLT has been bouncing.
Now, the key is can it clear the 137.50 level. If it can, I would expect it to continue higher. If not, look for this pullback to continue.
But,the TLT has had two closes under 135.84, so I would not expect the bounce to exceed 137.50.
Short term charts remain bearish.
And the 138 area should still offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 137.98. The GLD managed to reclaim the major 137.50 level. If it an hold this leve, it should continue to move higher.
The key level is 134.38. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125. And yesterday, the GLD managed to hold the level. Watch this level again.
Watch the minor 138.28 level. This should be resistance.
Technical resistance is around 139.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.78. The objective should be to 62.50.
Yesterday's low went to 59.53 or 15 cents above the major 59.28 level. Watch to see if the XLE can hold this level today.
Technical support is still around the 59.00 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 <
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91 **
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Apple closed at 264.47. Apple continues to inch up to the 265.63 objective. Now within 2 points of it.
The 265.63 level should be resistance and I would not expect Apple to break above it. At least on this drive. If Apple can take out this level, it would suggest that even higher prices will follow.
The upper band is 262.47. This should now be support until it closes under it.
257.81 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, GWW, WCG, COST, NTES, ADBE, AAPL, RTN, NVDA, VRTX, DXCM, BABA, CMI, HON, DE, UNP
Bearish Stocks: WAT, ANET, LOPE, BLUE, FANG, THS, ETSY, FIZZ, OXY, TRIP, OXY, WMB
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
