While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
XLNX Long November 15th $95.00 call for $1.35
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Today, of course, is Friday and closes out the third week of November. It also happens to be the expiration of the November monthly options.
We do have two positions that expire today. The long put on DVA and the long call on XLNX. The DVA position will no doubt expire today as the stock is deep out of the money.
I will be looking to close the position if it moves in the money.
The S & P 500 continues to tick higher. The S & P closed out at 3,096.75. For the day, the market closed 2.71 points higher.
The high for the day was 3,098.20 or 14 cents above Wednesday's high.
And the low for the day came in at 3,083.26 or about 2 points under the minor 3,085.95 level. So, once again, the S & P traded just under the minor level, but could not close under it. this does suggest that the upside target is still valid.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,090 to 3,094 area. Watch this area on a pullback.
And once again, the market contracted. The daily range was only 14.94 points. And the daily average true range continues to drop. It is now 21.88 points. So, yesterday's range was less than 70% of the average.
As it stands through yesterday, the weekly average true range is only 26.79. And the weekly average true range is 68.45. Through yesterday's close, the range is only 39% of the average.
These contractions will definitely lead to an expansion. The only question is when. And they do warn that a pullback is coming.
However, the momentum and the objective are still slightly higher. So, it would be premature to consider shorting just yet.
In fact, the market can go a lot higher than we think it can ... even though it is overbought.
This is how a lot of traders got hurt back in 2000. Shorting early in a bull market is that recipe.
Anyway, pre-open, the S & P is trading about 10 points higher. This would project to an open around 3,106.75. So watch yesterday's high of 3,098.20 on a pullback.
Assuming this trading holds up through the open, the market would be about 19 points from the upside objective of 3,125 we have been calling for.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 12.98 yesterday. And once again, the VIX managed to trade above the minor 13.28 level, but failed to close above it.
Yesterday's high went to 13.81 or about 50 cents above the 13.28 level. If the VIX can clear this level today, I would expect it to continue higher.
This is all sounding rather familiar.
At this point, the VIX will need two closes above 13.28 to move up to 15.63. But, it should continue to be resistance until the VIX closed above it.
11.72 is a support level on the downside.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,096.63. The S & P continues to hold the minor 3,085.95 level. As I mentioned above, the S & P continues to trade below it, but cannot close under it.
It is still support until the market closes under it. 3,076.20 should still be support on the downside.
3,083.50 is also a minor level to watch for support. Technical support is at 3,089.
QQQ:
Major level: 203.13
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78 **
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
The QQQ closed at 201.43. The QQQ continues to hold the minor 200.78 level. The low went to 200.22 but managed to close above 200.78.
This level should continue to be support.
Technical support is around 200. And there is a support line at 198.44.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.10. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50.
The IWM continues to hold the minor 157.81 level. If the IWM does break under this level, I would expect strong support at 156.25.
159.38 is a minor resistance level. The IWM needs to clear this level to move higher. Watch this level again today. If the IWM cannot clear it, it would signal we should see a pullback.
And 157.81 should still offer support.
And 156.25 should still be a major support level. And technical support is around 157.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <<
Minor level: 135.84 **
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 137.91. The TLT continues to bounce as expected.
And it cleared the 137.50 level. If it can, I would expect it to continue higher. If not, look for this pullback to continue. Watch for support at this level.
The minor 138.28 level should be resistance.
Short term charts remain bearish.
And the 138 area should still offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 138.56. The GLD managed to reclaim the major 137.50 level. If it can hold this level, it should continue to move higher.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
Watch the minor 138.28 level. This should be resistance. But, a close today above it would suggest a move up to 140.
Technical support is now around 138.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.62. The objective should be to 62.50.
Yesterday's low went to 59.34 or 4 cents under the major 59.38 level. Watch to see if the XLE can hold this level today.
Technical support is still around the 59.00 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 <
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91 **
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Apple closed at 262.64. Apple continues to inch up to the 265.63 objective. Now within 1 point of it.
The 265.63 level should be resistance and I would not expect Apple to break above it. At least on this drive. If Apple can take out this level, it would suggest that even higher prices will follow.
The upper band is 263.29. This should now be support until it closes under it.
257.81 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, GWW, WCG, COST, NTES, ADBE, AAPL, RTN, NVDA, VRTX, DXCM, BABA, CMI, HON, DE, UNP
Bearish Stocks: WAT, ANET, LOPE, BLUE, FANG, THS, ETSY, FIZZ, OXY, TRIP, OXY, WMB
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
