While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70
KMI Long (1) Nov 23rd-$17.50 call @ $0.20
KMI Long (2) Nov 23rd-$17.00 put @ $0.40
MDR Long @ $9.31
MDR Short Nov $10 Call @ $0.25
QCOM Long December 7th - $55 Call for $1.60
QCOM Short December 7th - $58 Call for $0.55
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Yesterday we added two positions. The first was a debit spread on QCOM. And the second position was an adjustment to the OI position. We closed out the short call position on the spread which leaves us free to sell more calls in the event we need to make another adjustment.
Also, today we have one option position that expires today. That is the short $10 call on MDR.
MDR closed out yesterday under the strike, so I am going to suggest you leave the call position alone and most likely it will expire this afternoon.
The market had a bit of a dead cat bounce. The market reversed and closed 28.62 points higher, at 2,730.20.
It is still reading below the midband on the daily chart and it should still be resistance ... until it is violated. That level is 2,748.90. Watch to see how the market reacts at this level.
The short term intra day charts for the S & P 500 are mixed. The 60 minute chart is firmly in a downtrend while the 30 minute chart is bullish.
2,785 is the midband on the 60 minute chart and should be resistance. The market bounced off it on the 7th and 8th and will need to clear it to head higher.
Scaling back to look at the weekly bar through yesterday, we see that we have had a range of 105 points. The weekly average true range is 78 points, so it is highly likely that the high and low for the week are in.
The question is where do we close today.
The midpoint so far is 2,723.37 and the market closed about 8 points above it yesterday.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 16 points lower, so we should most likely open under the midpoint.
Watch the midpoint on a rally.
And on the downside, you want to watch the 2,707.50 support level. Where the market closes in relationship to 2,707.50 should give us the direction of the next minor move.
A close today above 2,707.50 and I would expect the S & P 500 to test 2,744.10.
A close under this level today would be bearish and would indicate further movement to the downside.
The close percentage yesterday was 92%. This suggests that the odds of the high being violated before the low is over 90%.
So, watch yesterday's low which was 2,670.75. Also, the support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,703 to 2,712 area.
NVDA did report last night and is selling off about $36 or almost 18%. I suspect this will have a drag on the market today.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00 <
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31 **
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 19.98. With a close under 20.31, the VIX will need two closes above it to move up to 25.
Watch the 20.31 level today.
The VIX is back under the midband on the 30 minute chart, which is 20.81. It will have to clear this level to move higher.
19.53 is support. 22.66 is resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50 **
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,683.10
Minor level: 2,658.70
Major level: 2,646.50
A close today above 2,707.50 would give the market a bias for a move up to 2,744.10.
Minor support should be at 2,700.20. On the upside, watch for resistance at the 2,724.60 level.
QQQ:
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19 **
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
The QQQ closed at 168.09. Biased for a drop to 162.50.
Yesterday for the second close under the major 168.75 level. This now sets up a scenario where the QQQ could drop as low as 150.
With the QQQ trading under the midband which is 169, I would expect resistance at that level.
Minor support is at 162.50. And resistance at 168.75.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 151.58. Watch to see if the IWM can close above 151.56 today.
150 is minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45
Major level: 114.06 Hit!
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89 **
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 112.11
Minor level: 111.33
Major level: 110.94
The TLT closed at 114.04. To move higher, the TLT will need to move above 114.45. Yesterday's high was 114.54 and the TLT could not hold it.
114.84 is minor resistance. And minor support is at 113.67.
GLD:
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 114.77. Short term oversold, so I expect a bounce to happen. Trends remain bearish. And the 60 minute chart is close to crossing into a downtrend. If it does, expect more movement to the downside.
113.28 is minor support. And 115.23 is minor resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 66.39. To move higher, the XLE will need two closes above 66.41.
The short term 30 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. And the midband is 68. The XLE will need to clear this level to move higher.
The daily chart is close to crossing into a downtrend. If that happens, look for more movement to the downside.
FXY:
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 84.18
Minor level: 83.79 **
Major level: 83.59 <
The FXY closed at 84.14. The FXY did hit the 84.38 level.
83.98 is minor support. And resistance is at 84.57.
AAPL:
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Apple is sitting on the midband on its daily chart. That level is 187.63.
Watch to see if Apple can hold this level. If it can't I would expect a drop to 175.
Better off to wait on Apple at the moment.
181.25 is minor support. And 193.75 is minor resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, COST, CME, ZBRA, CLX, DXCM, DIS, DATA, HSY, GPC, ESRX, UAL, EXR, WBA, LW
Bearish Stocks: NVDA, FB, CXO, FANG, EA, CLB, SLB, SRCL, WDC
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
