While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.95
PRA Long at $16.45
Premium collected $0.40
BOX Long at $17.65
BOX Short Oct 16th - $18 call @ $0.40
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I suggested you close the CLVS stock position on Friday. The net effect after collecting call premium was essentially a wash.
The S & P 500 dropped to the minor 3,242.15 level. The S & P bounced off the level three times before breaking under it.
Then right after 2:30 EST, the S & P broke under the minor level by 8.21 when it hit a low of 3,233.94.
After stopping at 3,233,94, the market managed to rally back to close at 3,269.96.
The end result was that the market had an intraday range of 70.99 points and managed to close at 51% of the range of the daily price bar.
The support is from Friday's daily bar is in the 3,270 area. The should be a strong support level.
And pre open, the S & P is trading about 43 points higher. This projects to an open around 3,312 or about 8 points above Friday's high of 3,304.93.
This would suggest that support should be at the high.
For the week, the S & P closed 195.43 points lower. And the weekly range was 207.48 points. This was 153.3% of the range of the weekly average true range.
This qualifies the weekly price bar as a bearish long range candle.
Resistance should be around the midband, which is around 3,338. Above this level, there is resistance at 3,355.
These levels should be areas to watch for resistance on rallies.
In looking at the monthly price bar, we see that it formed an inside bar. And it closed at only 11.4% of the range of the price bar.
With the inside bar, the close of 3,269.96 should be a key level to watch. And the midpoint, which is 3,392 is also a key level.
The monthly price bar did close just under the upper bollinger band. That level is 3,314.
And with the market closing under it, watch this level on a rally.
This afternoon, after the close we get earnings from CRUS, PYPL, and SWKS.
Tomorrow morning, we hear from W and ZBRA.
Wednesday after the close, we get earnings from QCOM and MELI.
And Thursday morning, we hear from BABA, BDX, and REGN. After the close on Thursday, we hear from BIDU and BKNG.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 41.40
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
The VIX closed at 38.02. The VIX closed .43 points higher.
The VIX got as high as 41.09 before closing again just above 37.50.
The next minor level is 38.28. The VIX needs to close above this level to continue higher.
If the VIX breaks under 39.84, I would expect it to continue lower.
The VIX is still trading above the upper band on the 60 minute chart, but is close to closing under it. The upper band is 37.26 and it is now within one point of it.
A break under the upper band would suggest the VIX will head lower.
The VIX is also just under the upper band on the weekly chart. That level is 39.30.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,593.60
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15 **
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,269.96. The S & P closed 40.15 points lower. This erased the gains from Thursday.
Watch the major 3,281.20 level on the upside And watch the minor 3,242.15 level would be possible.
Technical support is around 3,242, which is right at the minor support level.
QQQ:
Major level: 293.75
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31 **
Major level: 268.75
The QQQ closed at 269.38. The QQQ closed 7.01 lower. The QQQ closed just above the major 268.75 level.
Watch for support at the 268.75 level. And watch the minor 270.31 level. If the QQQ can ho,d this level, I would expect it to move higher.
279 is the midband on the 60 minute chart and should be resistance.
Technical support is at 267.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 153.09. The IWM closed 2.05 lower on the day.
The key now for the IWM is the minor 154.70 level. A close today under this level and it should drop to 150. If it can recoup this level, it should be support.
The midband on the 60 minute chart which is 155.40. Watch this level. The IWM is trading below this level. If it can break this level, it should become support.
151 should be support.
TLT:
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60 **
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
The TLT closed at 157.40. It closed 1.57 lower. The TLT closed below the major 159.38 level. And the minor 158.60 level.
This suggests that if the TLT closes under 158.60 today, it should drop to 156.25.
158 should be technical resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 174.25
Minor level: 172.70
Major level: 171.89
The GLD closed at 176.20. The GLD closed .80 lower on the day.
The next level on the downside is 174.25. Two closes under this level and the GLD should drop to 171.89.
The GLD needs to clear 175 to head higher.
XLE:
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90 **
Major level: 28.13 <
The XLE closed at 28.72. The XLE closed .16 higher.
The key now on the upside is the minor 28.90 level. The XLE needs two closes above this level to head higher.
This countermove should go to around the 30 area.
The 28.00 area should be technical support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 115.63
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 109.13
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00
Apple closed at 108.86. Apple closed $6.46 lower.
Watch the minor 109.13 level. A close today under this level today and Apple should drop to 100.
Apple broke under the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level is 115. this level should now be resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PEN, RMD, FIVN, UTHR, FFIV, XLNX, GRMN, YY, GRMN, PDD, FSLR, JD, BG, SCCO, LSCC, GO, IQ
Bearish Stocks: LMT, NOC, ULTA, BURL, LHX, GPN, CME, BA, ZBH, GD, WEX, DIS, IT, IBM, UHS, MDT, GWRE, FISV, DRI, CBOE, TRU, BAX
