While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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FCX Long $12.45
FCX Short Nov 25th - $14 Call ?($.30)
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DYN Long at $12.55
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CERN Long Jan $50 Call - $1.65
CERN Short Jan $55 Call ? ($.40)
FEYE Long at $13.65
FEYE Short Nov 25th - $14 Call ? ($.28)
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It seemed like only yesterday that I warned against attempting to short this market.? Actually, it was two days ago when I made that comment.
In Friday?s update I said this ? ?The slow action gives you the impression that the target would not be achieved.? That?s by design, I am sure. Lure?s you in to make you think about a short.
That would be a mistake at this point.? And If I can caution you on avoiding a mistake, then I have succeeded.
The reason I say this is because after taking out a key level and being very close to an all time high, a little push up and the market will be in new territory.?
And that is exactly what has happened.? The S & P 500 has closed at a record high of 2,198.18.? And it managed to close above the minor 2,195.30 level, which is another bullish sign.
Now that the S & P 500 is within 2 points of 2,200, the 2,250 level does not seem that far fetched.? As you know, that is the level I ultimately feel this market will go to.
The negative and a cause for a pullback at the moment is that the VIX is now within 30 cents of the major 12.50 level.
Having said that, the VIX has moved into a downtrend on its 60 minute chart, which suggests that if the VIX does get a bounce, it will be short lived.
And the S & P 500 is strongly bullish now on its 60 minute chart, so I would expect support to hold on a pullback.
The question to ponder is when to attempt a short?
The 2,203 level could be the answer. I say this because oftentimes when a level is violated it stalls at the next upside confirming level.? If the S & P 500 can close above that price, then the short is off.? But it is a price to watch closely to see how the market reacts.
And the VIX will help to confirm a short if it does reverse to the upside.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
The VIX at 12.37 is just under the 12.50 level.? The VIX will need two closes under 12.11 to move to 10.94.
11.72 should offer strong support.
$SPX:
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12 *
Major level - 2,187.50 *
Minor level - 2,171.88 *
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
The next level is 2,203.12.? If the S & P 500 can close above that level for two days, the objective becomes 2,250.
On the downside, 2,179.70 should offer support.?
QQQ:?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63 *
Minor level - 114.84 *
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The QQQ closed at 118.54,? just 21 cents under the 118.75 objective. 118.36 could offer minor support. And I would expect 117.97 to as well.
119.53 could offer resistance.
TLT:?
Major level - 131.25
Minor level ? 130.46
Minor level ? 128.91
Major level ? 128.13
Major level ? 125.00 *
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66
Major level ? 121.88 *
Major level ? 118.75
The TLT is oversold on the daily chart and a bounce should be expected. Having said that, I would expect a rally to fail.? Most likely at the 125 level.
120.31 should offer support and a long if this level holds would be warranted.
GLD: ?
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75
Minor level ? 117.97
Minor level -? 116.41
Major level ? 115.63 *
Minor level ? 114.85
Minor level ? 113.28
Major level ? 112.50
The GLD closed just under the 115.63 support level, at 115.58 yesterday.? To move higher, it needs two closes above 116.41.? I would not expect any counter move to exceed 121.88.? And most likely, 118.75 would be a place to fail on any rally.
117.19 should also offer resistance.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74
.22
Minor level - 72.66 *
Major level - 71.88 *
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE finally popped strongly, closing at 72.82, up 2.38% on the day.? The implication now that is if the XLE can close above 72.66 today, it should move up to 75.
71.88 should now be support.?
FXY:
Minor level: 89.45
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11 *
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
A close today under 87.11, and the FXY should drop to 85.94. 85.94 is a major level and if it closes under that level for two days, the FXY could drop all the way down to the 80 ? 82 area.
Watch that level closely.
86.33 is a minor support level.? 87.30 is minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
A close today above 110.16 and Apple should test 112.50.? That area should suggest a lot for the next move on Apple.? 112.50 could offer resistance and area for a pullback. ?If it does pull back off 112.50, I would expect a higher bottom and a decent opportunity to get long the stock.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GS, HUM, FDX, FFIV, CVX, NVDA, DE, VMW, KLAC, KSS
Bearish Stocks:? AGN, CVS, TEVA, FSLR, CUBE, CRAY, NVO
Be sure to check earnings release dates
