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After a long holiday weekend, we are back at the daily updates. I trust and hope you and your family had a wonderful Thanksgiving! I know we did and I know I ate way too much.
Friday gave us an opportunity to close out the KMI strangle position at a break even. As I said in the alert, KMI finally moved enough to let us close out the position.
With the moves the market has been making, I do expect to do more of these types of trades. You need price movement for the trade to work out, and with the moves the market has been making recently, they make sense.
With a short holiday trading session Friday, the S & P 500 managed to close 17.37 points lower. It closed at 2,632.56.
We were still biased to the downside due to the extremely low close percentage of Wednesday's daily price bar.
And with the bearish gap open on Friday, a natural resistance point becomes the gap fill. And Friday, the high for the S & P 500 was two points under the complete gap fill.
And Friday's close percentage was only 9% of the daily bar, which puts the odds of violating the low before the high at around 90%.
Resistance from Friday's daily bar should be in the 2,633 to 2,639 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 30 points higher.
This would project an open around 2,662, which would be well above the upper resistance level, which would then become support on a pullback.
Assuming the pre open trading holds up through to the open, the open would also be above Friday's high, which was 2,647.55. This level could also offer support on a pullback.
Friday also closed under the major 2,646.50 resistance level. The market was able to close under it on Tuesday and Friday but has not had two consecutive closes under it.
As I have stated before, the key on the downside would be two closes under 2,646.50. Should that happen, I would expect the market to head lower.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 103.71 points lower. This did exceed the weekly average true range which was 80.32.
And for the week, the S & P 500 closed at 1.4% of the weekly bar. This does put the odds of violating the low before the high at a very high level.
The resistance level from last week's weekly bar should be in the 2,681 to 2,683 area.
I will review how the November monthly bar is shaping up as we get closer to the end of the month this week.
We do have earnings continuing this week but the number of companies reporting is diminishing.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31 **
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 21.52. I am biased now for a move up to 25. This would suggest that 20.31 should offer support.
To invalidate the long projection in the VIX, it would need two closes under 20.31.
22.66 is minor resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,683.10
Minor level: 2,658.70 **
Major level: 2,646.50 <
Minor level: 2,634.30 **
Minor level: 2,609.90
Major level: 2,597.70
Friday closed back under the major 2,646.50 level. If the S & P 500 has two closes under this level, the S & P 500 could drop to 2,000 to 2,550.
To move higher, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,658.70. And today's open should be just above it. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can hold this line.
2,675.80 should be minor resistance. 2,627 is minor support.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94 **
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
The QQQ closed at 159.21. Biased for a move down to 156.25.
Minor support should be at 157.81. 162.50 and 160.94 should be resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 147.89. This now suggests that the IWM should test the 143.75 level.
150 should be resistance. And 146.88 is minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45 **
Major level: 114.06 Hit!
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 112.11
Minor level: 111.33
Major level: 110.94
The TLT continued its bounce and closed at 115.14. The TLT did hit the 115.63 objective. Friday's high was 115.76.
At this point, the TLT will need to clear 115.63 to head higher. And 116.41 should be minor resistance.
114.84 is minor support. Short term charts remain bullish, implying the TLT should head higher.
GLD:
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 115.77. The GLD did clear the midband on its 30 minute chart. The midband is 115.53, which is 10 cents above the major 115.63 level.
The midband should now be support.
115.23 is minor support. 116.41 is minor resistance.
Short term charts are bearish.
XLE:
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85 **
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 63.91. A close today under 64.85 and the XLE should test 62.50.
64.84 is minor resistance. And minor support is at 63.28.
Short term charts remain bearish, but the XLE is oversold so a bounce should be expected.
FXY:
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58 **
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 84.18
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59
The FXY closed at 84.68. This now suggests that if the FXY can close above 84.58 today, it could test 85.16.
The FXY would have to move up to the 86 area for me to be convinced that this downtrend is over. Still a bounce in a bear market.
84.57 should be minor support and 84.96 is minor resistance.
AAPL:
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Apple closed at 172.29 on Friday. It was down another $4.49. Apple is now down about $50 off the top.
And I do think it goes lower.
Short term it is oversold, so I would expect a bounce. But, I don't expect it to last.
168.75 is minor support. And 184 should be resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CLX, UHS, LLY, KMB, UAL, DUK, OMCL, BKH, DAL, FL
Bearish Stocks: BKNG, GOOGL, BA, DIA, GS, FLT, BIDU, NVDA, FB, RACE, OLED, EA, SWKS, WLK, GILD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.