While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected? $.70
FCX Long $12.45
FCX Short Nov 25th - $14 Call ?($.30)
Total Premium Collected $.54
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $.48
FEYE Long at $13.65
Total Premium Collected $.28..
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It?s good to be back after the long holiday weekend and shortened session on Friday. The nice thing about the price levels I share is that you should have known what to look for on Friday?s shortened session.
With a close above 2,203.12 on Wednesday, you should have been looking for a close above that level on Friday to confirm the move up to 2,250.? The market complied with a close at 2,213.35.
At this point, the active objective is now 2,250.
And now it certainly does not seem unobtainable, with Friday?s high of 2,213 within 40 points of the level.? I do not recall when I mentioned that I felt the ultimate target for this market was to the 2,250 level, but it was a long time ago.
And, as we wind down to close out the month of November, we are within reach of that objective.
And as you can see, my warnings about not attempting to short this market have proved accurate.
Having said that, we will get a pullback based on profit taking.? The question is when.
I say that because the VIX is now back down to historic low support levels.
But, at this point, I believe a pullback will be short lived and an opportunity to go long.
This is because the shorter term charts for the S & P 500 are firmly in uptrends, so buying against support still makes sense.
Unless something comes out that derails that thinking.
This week we will get the Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 AM EST.? With a Fed rate hike factored in for December, this will still be closely watched and anticipated.
Finally, Friday you should have been assigned on the FCX options.? If FCX does give us a decent pullback, I would like to put this back on. Also, the short $14 call on FEYE expired on Friday, and you still own the stock.? I will be looking to sell more calls against this position.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
The VIX closed at 12.34 on Friday and was down .51 for the week. It will need two closes under 12.11 to move to 10.94.? To move up to 14.06, the VIX will need two closes above 12.89.
Because the VIX is around the major 12.50 level, we need to watch this closely to see if it bounces.
If 12.11 can hold as support, we may see the bounce.
$SPX:
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38 *
Minor level - 2,203.12 *
Major level - 2,187.50 *
Minor level - 2,171.88
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
The S & P 500 has had two closes above 2,203.12, so the objective should be to 2,250. With the 130 point run off the last major bottom and the VIX at all time lows, we need to be aware that a pullback should be forthcoming.
2,218.80 is a short term resistance level to watch.? And 2,203 should now be support.
QQQ:?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The QQQ closed at 118.80. just 5 cents above the 118.75 level.? At this point, the QQQ will need two closes above 119.53 to move up to 121.88.
117.97 should offer minor support.
TLT:?
Minor level ? 128.91
Major level ? 128.13
Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66 *
Major level ? 121.88 ***
Minor level ? 121.09
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75
Minor level -? 117.96
With multiple closes under 121.88, the TLT could drop down to 112 to the 115 area.? And selling against resistance would be the appropriate action.
Short term, 118.75 should be the objective, however, because of the oversold condition, a bounce may happen first.? I would expect resistance at 122 and 125 on a bounce.
The TLT is trying to hold support at the minor 120.31 level.
GLD: ?
Minor level ? 117.97
Minor level -? 116.41
Major level ? 115.63 *
Minor level ? 114.85
Minor level ? 113.28
Major level ? 112.50
Major lev
el ? 109.38
The GLD is right at the major 112.50 level. A break under this level and 109 would be the target.? 109 is a key price level and should tell how far the GLD could drop.
Like the TLT, it is oversold short term and a bounce would not be out of the question here.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66 *
Major level - 71.88 *
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The objective for the XLE should be to 75.
71.88 should now be support.? Minor support at 72.27.? Same as last week.
FXY:
Minor level: 89.45
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 *
Minor level: 87.11 *
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 ***
The FXY has now had two closes under 85.94.? The implication now is that it could move down to the 81 to 83 area.
87.11 should be resistance.? If it bounced back to 87.50, it would be a great place to get short.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Not much different from last update.? Watch the 112.50 level. If it is cannot get through this level, expect a pullback.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, HUM, GS, MLM, FDX, BA, RTN, CMI, AET, UHS, CVX, DE, CAT, PZZA, KLAC, JPM, DDS
Bearish Stocks:? AGN, BIDU, PANW, ALXN, RGR, FSLR, VRX
Be sure to check earnings release dates
