While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $57.70 call for $1.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
DVA Short November 8th - $61.50 call for $0.80
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The S & P 500 gapped up off the open on Friday and ended the day closing 29.35 points higher.
You would think this would be a great trade to day trade, but the exact opposite is true.
This is because the gap open was 13.16 points and as a result, the intra day range was only 16.23 points.
I know because I did do a few day trades on Friday and managed to eke out some winners, but you have to be really nimble on a day like that.
As you know, I tend to daytrade on Fridays because I use the options that expire that afternoon and because they carry little time value, they tend to be inexpensive.
Another way to look at it is that the leverage is the highest on the day of expiration.
By the way, this is now true for three days of the week on the SPY, which now has options that expire on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
But, you can't fight the tape and you need to take what the market gives you.
To really capture the gap move, you needed to be positioned long on Thursday.
That is the problem with gaps.
But, nevertheless, the S & P continues to tick up to the next objective, which is 3,125.
Friday's close puts the market within 58 points of that objective.
The support area from Friday's daily price bar is in the 3,059 area.
For the week, the S & P closed 44.36 points higher. And it closed at 99.9% of the range of the bar.
This suggests that last week's high should be violated before the low.
The range for the week was only 43.76 points. This is about 60% of the weekly average true range, which is now 74.72 points.
Even though the range is falling short of the average range, the momentum is clearly to the upside.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 3,045 to 3,050 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 18 points higher, so last week's high should be taken out at the open.
Earnings continue this week. That afternoon we will get earnings from SHAK. Wednesday afternoon we get earnings from BIDU, QCOM and ROKU.
And BKNG reports after the close on Thursday, along with STMP and DIS.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 12.30 on Friday. This puts the VIX back under the 12.50 level. This also puts us on alert that a reversal could be coming.
To drop to 9.38, the VIX will need two closes under 11.72.
And the 13.28 level should still be resistance. And resistance is at the major 12.50 level as well. This is also where technical resistance is.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
With a close above 3,051.80, this level should now be support. Minor support is at 3,085.
A break above 3,068.80 and the S & P should head higher.
3,036 should offer technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77 **
Major level: 196.88 <
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
The QQQ closed at 198.87. A close today above 197.77 and the objective for the QQQ should be to 200.
A break above 198.44 and the QQQ should continue to the target.
The 196.88 area should offer support. And technical support is around 196.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 Hit!
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.10. With a close above 157.81, the target for the IWM should be 162.50.
154.69 should still be a support level. And technical support is around 155.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 140.56. The TLT needs to clear 140.63 to head higher.
And the TLT will need two closes above 141.41 to move up to 143.75.
142.19 is a minor resistance level. If the TLT clears this level, it should head higher.
139.84 should offer support. And the minor 138.28 level should as well.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 142.56. At this point, a move up to 143.75 should be the next move.
141.80 should offer support.
The 141 area should offer technical support.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.28. The XLE had a strong move closing 2.28% to the upside. The XLE needs to clear 59.38 to move higher.
58.59 should offer support on the downside.
Resistance is stll at the midband on the daily chart, which is 61.50. It will have to clear this level to head higher.
Technical support is still around the 57 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 250.00 <
Minor level: 246.88 **
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 255.82. This puts Apple above the 250 target ... and above the upper band on the daily chart.
The upper band is 243.30. This should now be support until it closes under it.
246.88 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, AVGO, NTES, MA, ASML, AAPL, ZBRA, PANW, GS, RTB, OLED, FB, V, AGN, HON, DE, DECK, URI
Bearish Stocks: ANET, TWLO, XLNX, CHRW, LOGM, ALB, TAP, FIZZ, CIEN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.