While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70
OI Short Feb $22 call @ $0.55
KMI Long (1) Nov 23rd-$17.50 call @ $.20
KMI Long (2) Nov 23rd-$17.50 put @ $0.40
CELG Long Jan $75 call @ $3.60
CELG Short Jan $80 call @ $1.90
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PHM settled above $23 at Friday's close, so your short calls should have been assigned. The result was a gain of 4.27% for about a week and one half. The cash return, if you traded the suggested 300 share lot, was a cash gain of $288.
Friday it seemed as if the S & P 500 would clear the midband on the daily chart only to see the market sell off and close under it.
The market gapped up at the open and ran to a high of 2,756.55 before reversing and headed down for the balance of the day.
The high was above the midband and just above the 200 ema, which is 2,754.35.
The midband is 2,742.96, so the S & P 500 ended up closing about 20 points under it at 2,723.06.
A few days ago, I discussed various support and resistance levels for the S & P 500. And one of the levels I mentioned was the midband. When price falls under the midband, it usually acts as resistance the when it is approached from below.
Had the market had the strength to close above it, would have been a bullish signal.
But now that it is back under it, I would expect it to act as resistance.
And the resistance area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,729 to 2,734 area.
And naturally, you want to watch the midband.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 64.37 points high. It closed above the midpoint of last week's bar, which was 2,703.55.
And the close percentage was 78% which suggests there is almost an 80% chance that the high will be violated before the low.
Friday's close percentage was 40% so I would expect weakness to start the week. And you want to watch last week's low which was 2,603.54.
Earnings continue this week.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 19.44. It closed to the downside 10 cents. Friday's low was 18.05 so it hit the 18.75 objective we were biased for.
At this point, 18.75 should still act as support. If it can't, look for the VIX to drop further and the market to head up. If it holds and moves higher, expect the market to move lower.
17.19 should be minor support. And 17.12 is a technical support level.
On the upside, 20.31 is resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10 <
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50 **
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,683.10
Minor level: 2,658.70
Major level: 2,646.50
Minor level: 2,634.30
Minor level: 2,609.90
Major level: 2,597.70
Watch the minor 2,731.90 level today. With a close on Friday at 2,723.06, I would expect resistance at 2,731.90 on a rally.
A close under 2,731.90 and the S & P 500 should test 2,695.30.
Technical resistance is at 2,826.
QQQ:
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 169.38. The QQQ could not close above 170.31, so it would still need two closes above that level to test 175.
Unlike the S & P 500, the QQQ is trading just above the midband on the daily chart. That level is 168.43. If it cannot hold this level, expect the QQQ to move lower.
168.75 should be support. And minor support is at 171.88.
171.88 is minor resistance. Support should be at 165.63.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 154. Biased for a move up to 156.25.
153.13 should offer minor support. And 160 is technical resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45
Major level: 114.06
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 112.11 **
Minor level: 111.33
Major level: 110.94
The TLT closed at 112. This now sets up a scenario where if the TLT can close under 112.11 today, it should test 110.94.
The TLT is oversold and almost at the lower band on the daily chart. The lower band is 111.31.
111.33 is minor support. And 112.50 should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41 **
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 116.65. Biased for a test of 118.75.
115.63 is minor support. And 117.19 minor resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 67.56. The XLE did hit the 68.75 level, before closing under it.
67.19 is minor support. And minor resistance is at 68.36.
The midpoint of the monthly bar is 71.36. Watch this level on a rally. 68 should be resistance from Friday's daily bar.
FXY:
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58 **
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 84.18
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59
The FXY closed at 84.43. Watch to see if the FXY can hold the 84.38 level. If it can't, I would expect it to drop.
84.77 should now be minor resistance. 83.98 should be minor support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25 <
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Apple reported and ended up closing $14.74 lower. It closed at $207.48. Friday's low was under the major 206.25 level.
Watch to see if Apple can hold the 206.25 level, If it can't, a test of 200 would be the move. Two closes under 204.69 would confirm a drop to 200.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CME, DECK, ESL, DG, HSY, TSCO, XLNX, WBA, OMC, TRIP, TWTR, CNK, KFY
Bearish Stocks: LLL, IBM, EA, ALL, CTSH, BG, CERN, BDC, SLB, GIS, ALKS, MTDR, WDR, CLVS, INN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
