While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Short November 8th - $61.50 call for $0.80
CRM Long November 8th $155 put for $0.85
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Yesterday, you should have closed out the callside of the DVA spread. You should have also closed out the callside of the CRM position.
You should still be holding the putside of each position. The CRM puts expire today, so if we get a pullback, I will look to close the puts. If not, the overall position still made money.
The DVA puts expire next week, so we have some time to see if it pulls back after the earnings gap. As with the CRM trade, the overall trade will still make money even if the puts expire worthless.
Back to the markets.
The S & P 500 continues to tick up to our objective. Yesterday, the market closed 8.45 points higher.
The day closed out at 3,085.18. But, after the bullish gap, the market stalled at 3,097.77.
From there, profit-taking took it down to the 3,085.18 close. From the high to the close, it was a drop of 12.59 points.
Overall, the intraday range was 17.54 points. This is still less than the 23.77 daily average true range.
So, the contractions continue. And the daily average true range continues to drop. This is certainly an ominous sign.
The daily bar closed at 28%, which does suggest that the low should be violated before the high. Yesterday's low was 3,080.23.
This is a level to watch to see if it is violated. If the market makes a run at it and cannot break under it, expect a rally.
At this point, the weekly price has seriously contracted along with the daily bar, which is something you would expect.
The weekly range so far is only 31.88 points. The weekly average true range is 71.66 points, so the range so far is only 44% of the average.
But the ominous sign is that through yesterday's close, the weekly price bar is forming a doji.
I say this because the week opened at 3,078.96 and yesterday's close of 3,085.18 is only 6 points above it.
Watch these levels today, along with the mindpoint, which is 3,082.
A close under the open and the midpoint would be bearish.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 2 points lower. If the S & P takes out yesterday's low, watch the 3,077 level. The is the high of the gap from yesterday and should be support on a pullback.
DIS reported and is trading about $8 higher. And STMP is trading about $15 higher after reporting.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 12.73 yesterday. Yesterday was the second day this week where the VIX and the S & P diverged. They both closed to the upside again.
13.28 should still be resistance until it is violated. And minor support is at 11.72.
12.50 is also a key level for today.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,085.18 and was just under the minor 3,085.95 level.
Watch this price level today. A move above it and it should be support and a break under it should be resistance.
Minor levels for today are 3,083.50 and 3,071.30. And the upside, the key level is 3,095.70.
QQQ:
Major level: 203.13
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78
Major level: 200.00 Hit
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77 **
Major level: 196.88 <
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
The QQQ closed at 200.43. The QQQ hit the 200 objective and closed just above it. Watch to see if the QQQ can move above this level.
The next minor level is 200.78. Watch to see if it clears this level and can close above it.
Technical support is still around 198. And there is a support line at 198.44.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 Hit!
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 158.65. The target for the IWM should be to the 162.50.
159.38 is a minor resistance level. The IWM needs to clear this level to move higher. Watch this level again today. If the IWM cannot clear it, it would signal we should see a pullback.
And 157.81 should still offer support.
And 156.25 should still be a major support level. And technical support is around 158.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <<
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 135.48. A close today under 135.84 and the TLT should drop to 131.25.
137.50 should be major resistance and minor resistance is at 135.94.
The 138 area should offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 138.27. Yesterday's low was 137.60 or 10 cents above the 137.50 objective.
Watch this level today.
Technical resistance is around 141.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 60.94. A close today above 60.16 and the XLE should head to 62.50.
Having said that, the XLE needs to clear the midband, which is 61.39.
Technical support is still around the 60 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 <
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91 **
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Apple closed at 259.43. A close today above the 253.91 level and the objective should be to 265.63.
The upper band is 257.52. This should now be support until it closes under it.
250 should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, AVGO, NTES, MA, ASML, AAPL, ZBRA, PANW, GS, RTB, OLED, FB, V, AGN, HON, DE, DECK, URI
Bearish Stocks: ANET, TWLO, XLNX, CHRW, LOGM, ALB, TAP, FIZZ, CIEN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.