While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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As we close out this week, the S & P 500 paused yesterday after the long range day from Wednesday. This is not unusual to see a contraction after a strong surge.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,806.83, down 7.06 points on the day.
And the range contracted with a range of only 19.76 points. Compared with an average true range of 44.70, yesterday's range was only 44% of the average.
And yesterday's low came in at 2,794.99 which was right at the support level from Wednesday's daily bar.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 16 points lower. This projects to an open around 2,790 or about 5 points lower than the 2,795 support level. Continue to watch this support level for support or resistance.
And the support level from yesterday's daily bar should be in the 2,805 to 2,807 area.
At this point, it is likely the high for the week is in. I mentioned yesterday that if you project out a 50% extension off the low, the high projects to 2,833. This week's high so far is 2,815.15, which came on Wednesday.
And at this point, the close percentage for the week is over 90%.
I would expect a close above the 50% level of the weekly bar which is well below where the market closed yesterday.
The high from two weeks ago was 2,778.94. A close above this level would be bullish.
And a close above 2,791 is around the 75% close level of the projected weekly bar. The projected open is right around this level. Watch to see how it holds.
The technical levels to watch today are 2,812 which is the midband on the 60 minute chart. And yesterday's was right at that level.
On the downside, the key technical support level is 2,740 which is the midband on the 30 minute chart.
Disney reported last night and is up about $2 pre open.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50 <
The VIX closed at 16.73. The VIX closed to the upside .37 points.
This was the second day where the VIX closed under 17.19, so the bias is to the 12.50 level ... again.
18.75 should be resistance along with the 17.19 level.
14.06 is minor support on the downside.
SPX:
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20 **
Major level: 2,793.00 <
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50
Major level: 2,695.30
The S & P 500 did manage to close above 2,805.20 yesterday. With a close of 2,806.83, it eked it out by about 1.60. Still it qualified as the second close above the minor 2,805.20 level which puts the objective back up to 2,841.80.
Look for support at the 2,793 level.
Also, the minor 2,788.10 level should offer support. The market should open just above this level, so watch to see if it can hold.
QQQ:
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 174.46. It sold off to just under the major 175 level.
Watch to see if the QQQ can hold the 173.44 level. This should be support.
Technical support is at 171.40.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 156.99. The midband on the daily chart is 158.14 and yesterday's high came in at 157.90 or just under it.
The IWM will have to clear the midband to head higher.
Watch to see if 156.25 can hold. And 155.47 is a minor support level.
The midband on the 60 minute chart is 158.55. And the IWM bounce off it yesterday.
TLT:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45
Major level: 114.06
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89 **
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 112.11 **
Minor level: 111.33
Major level: 110.94
The TLT closed at 112.51. It continues to try and hold the major 112.50 level. If it can, I would expect a bounce.
If it can't and drops under 112.11, I would expect a drop to 110.94.
To move higher, the TLT will need two closes above 112.89.
GLD:
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41 **
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 115.78. At this point, 116.41 should still be minor resistance. And the GLD will have to clear 116.41 to move higher. And it is still resistance, with yesterday's high at 116.15.
115.63 is minor support. And 117.19 is minor resistance. 115.23 is a key level on the downside. If the GLD closes under 115.23, I would expect a drop to 114.
XLE:
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 **
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 68.62. A close today above 69.53 and the XLE should test 71.88.
A break under 68.36 and the XLE should drop to 67.
FXY:
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 84.18 **
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59 <
The FXY closed at 83.84. It finally broke under the 84.38 level. This now suggests if the FXY closes under 84.18 today, it should drop to 83.59.
A close today under 84.18 and the FXY should drop to 83.59.
On the downside, a key support level should be at 82.81.
AAPL:
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81 **
Major level: 206.25 <
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Apple closed at 208.49. Biased for a move up to 212.50. This would suggest that 204.69 should offer support.
A break under the 205 level and Apple should continue lower.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CME, DECK, ESL, DG, HSY, TSCO, XLNX, WBA, OMC, TRIP, TWTR, CNK, KFY
Bearish Stocks: LLL, IBM, EA, ALL, CTSH, BG, CERN, BDC, SLB, GIS, ALKS, MTDR, WDR, CLVS, INN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.