While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 continued to bounce yesterday. The day ended with the S & P 500 closing 18.73 points higher.
The market closed at 2,938.13. This put the S & P almost 10 points above the 2,929.73 level. This level should now be support.
The high for the day was 2,948.46, which is about 20 points under the major 2,968.80 level.
With the S & P trading about 29 points higher this morning before the open, this level will no doubt be tested.
Watch to see how the market reacts around this level.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,928 to 2,933 area.
Even with the market making a push higher this week, through yesterday, the S & P 500 is still making a weekly inside bar.
The weekly range through yesterday is only 67 points. And the weekly average true range is 80 points. This suggests that the range is only 84% of the average.
A move to the weekly average would put the S & P at 2,973. And the large projected open would suggest the S & P would open around 2,967 or about 5 points under the average.
Assuming the market continues to follow through to the upside, the key price level to watch is last week's close, which was 2,952.01.
After that price, the next level to watch would be the high, which was 2,967.07.
The 60 minute chart for the S & P is bearish and the midband is 2,950. The projected open would put the market about 16 points above the midband. This level should then be support on a pullback.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97 **
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 17.61 yesterday. This was the first close under the minor 17.97 level. This implies that if the VIX closes under 17.97 today it should continue down to 15.63.
Resistance should be at 18.75 and the minor 17.97 level.
Technical support on the VIX is at 17, so if the VIX breaks under it, look for the VIX to continue down.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 2,938.13. Now that the S & P cleared 2,929, it should be support.
Watch to see if the S & P can clear the major 2,968.8o level. If it can, it should be support.
Minor resistance should be at the 3,007.85 level.
Technical resistance is around 2,950, so watch this level if the S & P pulls back.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 188.68. With a close above the major 187.50 level, it should now be support. Two closes above 189.06 and the QQQ should test 193.75.
188.60 is technical support. And 189.06 should be support, as well as 187.50.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 147.72. Watch how the IWM reacts around the major 150 level.
148.44 should be support.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97 **
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 142.20. Resistance should now be at 143.75. And a close today under 142.97 and the TLT should drop to 140.63.
142.97 is minor resistance. A close under this level should also confirm a drop to 140.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <<
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 140.81. The GLD did drop under the major 140.63 level yesterday.
If the GLD can drop under 140.63, it should continue lower. Two closes under 139.84 and the GLD should drop to 137.
Technical resistance should be at 142.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 57.12. The major 56.25 level looks to holding as support.
And a close today above 57.03 and the XLE should move up to 59. 57.03 should be minor support.
58.50 is technical resistance.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00 <
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Apple closed at 230.09. With a close today above 228.13, Apple should move up to 237.
231.25 is minor resistance, so if Apple does clear this level, look for it to head higher.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AGN, EXPE, DLR, SPLK, EDU, WPC, PAYX, MTH, CMS, LEN, MDCO, TSM
Bearish Stocks: HUM, CLX, JAZZ, LLY, FANG, PLCE, BMRN, WUBA, KFY, AMTD, TDC, TLRY, ALKS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
