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Friday, the S & P 500 gapped almost 25 points higher at the open. This was based on speculation surrounding trade negotiations with China.
But, doesn't it seem that every day the market is reacting to this news?
It does to me.
This volatility does not surprise me, what does surprise me is that the VIX us under 20. Typically you would expect high volatility to be associated with a high VIX reading.
Never the less, the result of these new announcements resulted in the S & P 500 closing 32.14 points higher on Friday. When you consider that the gap open was 25 points, the market only made a 7-point move intra day.
In other words, you had to be long on Thursday to capture the bulk of the move.
For the day, the S & P closed at 24% of the daily bar. And the support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,967 to 2,978 area.
Friday's low was 2,963.07, which if it is violated, look for the market to continue lower.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 18.26 points higher. And the range for the week was 100.62 points. The range did exceed the weekly average true range, which is 82.46.
And last week's weekly price bar made a higher low and higher high. Last week's high took out the prior week by 75 cents.
Support from last week's bar is in the 2,943 area. Under 2,943, support should be at 2,931.
Short term charts are bearish, so expect some continued selling pressure.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 7 points lower. This projects to an open right around Friday's low. Watch to see if it holds. If it can't I would expect further selling.
Earnings season does begin this week.
Wednesday after the close, NFLX reports as well as IBM.
Today is Columbus Day here in the States. The bond is closed for the holiday, but the stock markets remain open.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97 **
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 15.11 on Friday. It closed under the major 15.63 level. At this point, 17.19 should be resistance.
The VIX is oversold in the short term and a bounce off the 15.63 level should be unexpected.
17 is a technical resistance level, so if the VIX can clear this level, it should be support.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 2,970.27. The 2,929 level should still be support.
The S & P should open under the major 2,968.80 level. This should indicate that it is resistance on a rally.
Technical support should now be around 2,950, so watch this level if the S & P pulls back.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 191.11. The minor 192.19 level should be resistance.
189.06 should offer support. Watch this level on a pullback. If it can't hold, expect the QQQ to drop.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 150.22. The IWM managed to close just above the 150 level.
148.44 should be a support level. If the IWM does close under 148.44 for two days, the IWM should drop to 143.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 140.44. Short term, the TLT is oversold. It will have to reclaim the 140.63 level to move higher.
A break under 139 and the TLT should head lower.
142.19 is minor resistance. And 143 is technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <<
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 140.03. 139.85 is the key level on the downside. Two closes under 139.85 and the GLD should drop to 137.50.
If the GLD can drop under 140.63, it should continue lower. Two closes under 139.84 and the GLD should drop to 137.
Technical resistance should still be the 142 area.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 57.89. The 57.42 level should be support. To follow through to the upside, the XLE will need to hold this level. If it can't, I would expect the XLE to drop.
The 59 area should be technical resistance.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50 <<
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Apple closed at 236.21. Apple did hit the 237.50 objective. Friday's high was 237.64.
This would suggest that Apple is oversold in the short term. Look for profit-taking.
228 should be a support level. And 234 should be support as well.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AAPL, HD, EW, NVDA, RNG, DE, AGN, DG, CELG, NKE, VLO, SWKS, PAYX, TER
Bearish Stocks: VRTX, JAZZ, EOG, FANG, IRBT, RCI, OXY, YELP, CLR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
