While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
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Short Oct 16th - $6 Call @ $0.15
BOX Long at $17.65
BOX Short Oct 16th - $18 call @ $0.40
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The S & P 500 took a pause yesterday from the recent strong bull move. A pause after a 300 point swing, is certainly not unexpected.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed 22.29 points lower. The day closed out at 3,511.93.
This is still about 36 points above the minor 3,476.45 level. I would expect this level to offer support.
The daily price bar closed out at 33% of the range of the daily bar. This does suggest we should see follow-through today to the downside.
And the resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,517 area. Above this level, there is resistance around 3,523.
The midpoint of the open gap at 3,490.98 is also a level to watch on the downside.
Pre open, the S & P is trading relatively flat.
The odds favor yesterday's low of 3,500.86 being violated before the high of 3,534.01.
If the low is not taken out, the market should make a run to the high.
I do need to point out that the 60 minute chart for the S & P is getting very close to crossing into an uptrend. Assuming it does move into an uptrend, this would also confirm we should see higher prices for the market.
GS reported and is trading about $5 higher. BAC reported and is trading about $.55 lower.
MS reports Thursday before the open. And TEAM reports tomorrow after the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00 < HIT
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
The VIX closed at 26.07. The VIX closed 1.00 point higher. This created a divergence with the S & P, with both closing higher on the day.
Even with the push higher, the VIX did not close above the midband on the daily chart. The midband is now 26.61.
But, the VIX did manage to close above the minor 25.78 level. This now suggests that if the VIX closes above 25.78 today, it should head up to 28.13.
Technical resistance is still around 27.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,593.60 <
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45 **
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,511.93. The target is still up to the 3,593.60 level.
And the minor 3,476.45 level should still be support. And watch to see if the S & P can clear 3,554.55.
Technical support should be around 3,465. Watch the gap levels on the downside for support. The first level is 3,490 and the gap fill is at 3,482.34.
QQQ:
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 298.44
Minor level: 295.31
Major level: 293.75 <
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00
The QQQ closed at 294.52. The QQQ closed .01 lower. The QQQ needs two closes above the 295.31 level to head up to 300.
The 293.75 should now be support. And the 292 area as well.
The QQQ is close to crossing into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 < HIT
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 162.70. The IWM closed 1.09 higher on the day.
The minor 160.94 level should be support. The next minor level is 164.06.
The upper band on the 60 minute chart is 166. Watch how the IWM reacts at this level. The IWM is just under the upper band.
The IWM has already crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart.
TLT:
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16 **
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
The TLT closed at 161.75. It closed 1.15 higher. The TLT should test 162.50.
159.38 should be support.
The TLT did retest the lower band on its 60 minute chart and closed below it. The lower band is 159. Target should be to the midband, which is 163.
GLD:
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 180.47 **
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 174.25
Minor level: 172.70
Major level: 171.89
The GLD closed at 177.72. The GLD closed 2.84 lower on the day.
With a close today under 180.47, the GLD should drop to 175.
After trading right on the midband on the 60 minute chart, the GLD broke and closed under it. This level should still be resistance. the midband is 180.
XLE:
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25 HIT
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90 **
Major level: 28.12
The XLE closed at 30.39. The XLE closed .48 lower. A close today under 30.47 and the XLE should drop to 28.
If the XLE cannot hold 30.47, it should head back down. It needs to clear 31.25 to head higher.
The 30.00 area should be technical support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 115.63
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 109.13
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00
Apple closed at 121.10. Apple closed $3.30 lower.
Watch the minor 121.88 level. A close today under this level and Apple should drop to 112.50.
Apple took out the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level is 117.50 and should now be support. Watch to see if this level holds.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: SHOP, TTD, NVDA, NFLX, ZM, HUM, IDXX, AVGO, COST, LRCX, TWLO, FDX, DE, QDEL, WDAY, DG, TEAM, LH, BYND, UPS, LLY
Bearish Stocks: CBOE, MRL, WYNN, LVS, ICPT, DISH, MD, MDP, KIM
