While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
DVA Long November 15th - $57.70 call for $1.80
DVA Long November 15th - $55.00 put for $1.95
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With the bond market closed for the holiday, the trading on the S & P 500 was very quiet.
For the day, the market closed 4.12 points lower. The range for the day was only 9.90 points. This was the smallest range since the 11.52 point range day on September 16th.
The daily average true range is now 35.40 points, which means yesterday's range was only 28% of the average. We have not had a trading day since September 9th where the range was about 30% of the average.
The implication of this is that we do expect a range expansion.
Yesterday closed at 2,966.15, or about 2 points under the major 2,968.80 level.
For the market to move higher, it will need to clear this level.
The 30 minute chart for the S & P is still bearish, but it's getting close to crossing into an uptrend. If this can happen, I would fully expect higher prices to follow. I will certainly track this.
But the S & P is trading above the midband on both its 30 minute and 60 minute charts.
The midband on the 30 minute chart is 2,960 and on the 60 minute chart it is 2,953.
This area should offer strong support.
And the support area from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,966 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 9 points higher. This would project to an open around 2,975 or about 3 points above yesterday's high, which was 2,972.84.
On a pullback, the high should offer support. If that cannot hold, look for support around 2,966.
Earnings season does begin this week.
Wednesday after the close, NFLX reports as well as IBM.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 14.65 yesterday. This was the first close under the minor 14.85 level. A close today under this level and the VIX should drop to 12.50.
15.63 should be a strong resistance level. And technical resistance is at 17.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 2,966.15. The 2,929 level should still be support. And with a projected open above 2,968.80, it should be support on a pullback.
2,971 is a minor level on the upside. If the S & P clears it, expect support there.
Technical support should now be around 2,954, so watch this level if the
S & P pulls back.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 191.09. This was the second close above 189.06 which suggests the QQQ should move up to 193.75.
190.63 should be minor support.
The 30 minute chart is very close to crossing into an uptrend. It is actually closer than the S & P, which indicates this is the stronger market. 189 should be technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 149.67. The IWM is trading right around the major 150 level. It will have to clear this level to head higher.
The midband on the daily bar is 150.01, which is right at the major level.
If the IWM can clear this level, it should head higher.
149.22 should offer support.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 141.46. This was the first close above 141.41, so if the TLT can close above 141.41 today, it should head up to 143.75.
140.63 should now be support. 143 should offer technical resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <<
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 140.59. 139.85 is the key level on the downside. Two closes under 139.85 and the GLD should drop to 137.50.
The GLD will need to clear the 140.63 level.
Technical resistance should still be the 142 area.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 57.86. The 57.42 level should still be support. To follow through to the upside, the XLE will need to hold this level. If it can't, I would expect the XLE to drop. And at this point, a move up to 59 should be expected.
But, the 59 area should be technical resistance.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50 <<
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Apple closed at 235.87. Apple is now trading right around the 237.50 level, which was what we were looking for.
It is oversold in the short term. And to move higher, Apple will need to close above 237.50. If it can't, profit-taking may set in.
A pullback to the 224 area would be a great place to get long.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AAPL, HD, EW, NVDA, RNG, DE, AGN, DG, CELG, NKE, VLO, SWKS, PAYX, TER
Bearish Stocks: VRTX, JAZZ, EOG, FANG, IRBT, RCI, OXY, YELP, CLR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
