While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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DVA Long November 15th - $57.70 call for $1.80
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The S & P 500 ended up closing 11.75 points lower on the day. It closed out the week at 2,986.20.
The high for the day was exactly 3,000.00 and after hitting the high, the market sold off the majority of the day.
This was the level I mentioned on Thursday should be a resistance level. In fact, I wrote this ... "The resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,000 area. Watch to see how the market reacts around this level."
The range for the day ended up being 24.69 points. Though this was greater than Thursday's range, it was still less than the daily average true range, which is 32.12.
And the day closed out at 44% of the daily price bar. This does give a slight nod to Friday's low being violated before the high, but there is not a lot of conviction.
Even with the selloff on Friday, the S & P closed higher for the week.
The week closed out 15.93 points higher. It closed out at 2,986.20. And the weekly range contracted. The range for the week was only 45.35 points.
The range for the week was less than 60% of the weekly average true range.
This suggests the market should have an expansion.
And the week closed at 51% of the weekly bar. This means there is a slight advantage to the high being violated before the low. But, like Friday's daily bar, there is not a lot of conviction.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,976 to 2,985 area.
And the support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,988 to 2,992 area.
This week we will get earnings from quite a few companies.
Tomorrow after the close, we will hear from CMG. And Wednesday before the close, we get earnings from BA and CAT.
After the close on Wednesday, we get earnings from MSFT, PYPL, and TSLA.
And Thursday after the close, we get earnings from AMZN and DECK.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 8 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,994. Watch the key levels I discussed above. Also, watch the 3,000 level as well.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 14.25 on Friday. The VIX opened at 14.20 and closed at 14.25.
Resistance should still be at 15.63. And minor support is at 14.06. If the VIX breaks under 14.06, it should then become resistance.
Still biased for a drop to 12.50.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 2,986.20. At this point, the S & P will need two closes above 3,007.85 to move up to 3,125. As I mentioned above, this should still be resistance until it is cleared.
Support on the downside should be at the minor 2,978.50 area. Also, watch the minor 2,995.60 level. If the S & P can clear this price, I would expect support there.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75 **
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 191.69. The QQQ will need two closes above 194.53 to move up to 196.88. And it will need to recoup the 192.19 level to head higher.
190.63 is a minor support level.
Technical support is at 189.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 152.61. The objective for the IWM should be for a move up to 156.25.
151.56 should be a support level. And 152.34 should offer minor support.
Technical support is also around 151.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 139.58. At this point, I would expect a drop to the 137 area.
But, the TLT needs to break under the 139 area to head lower. This is a short term support level.
142 should offer resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 140.46. With the GLD reclaiming 139.85, it will still need two closes under 139.85 to move lower. To move higher, it will be two closes above 141.41.
At this point, the key price level is 140.63. If the GLD breaks under this level, it should head lower. It will need to clear this level to head higher.
Technical resistance should be in the 141 area.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 57.03. The XLE closed exactly on the 57.03 level. It will need to clear this level to head higher.
But, the 59 area should be technical resistance. So, if the XLE can clear 59, it should head higher.
The 56 area should be support.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50 <<
Minor level: 234.38 **
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Apple closed at 236.41. The 234.38 level should be support.
Technical support is around the 227 level as well.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buying against support is still the best strategy.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, CHTR, SPY, CTAS, HD, AAPL, PANW, NVDA, FB, DE, AGN, CMI, DG, UTX, CAT
Bearish Stocks: BA, BIIB, FANG, XOM, CXO, TXRH, XEC, CLR, PSQ
Be sure to check earnings release dates.