While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70
OI Short Feb $22 call @ $0.55
UNIT Long at $19.35
UNIT Short Oct $20 call @ $0.45
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The short $20 call on UNIT expired Friday afternoon. And it turned out the stock settled just under the $20 strike, at 19.82. Therefore, the calls were not assigned and you keep your stock. I will look to adjust the position this week.
Friday, the S & P 500 ended up closing one point lower. It closed at 2,767.78.
The market gapped up at the open and ran to a high of 2,797.77 at 10.03 EST.
From that point, the market essentially dropped all day, falling to a low of 2,760.27 at 2:00 EST.
I bring up these times because often 10:00 and 2:00 can be critical intra day turning points. If you do trade intra day, watch these turning points in the future. Like Friday, they often market the high or low for the day.
The range for the day ended up at 37.50 points, slightly more than the average true range of 35.69 points.
But, for the day, the daily bar formed and inside day, with a lower high and higher low.
This can often lead to an expansion.
And usually, the market will continue in the direction of the high or low violation of the inside bar.
So, for today, you want to monitor Friday's high of 2,797.77 and the low of 2,760.27.
The resistance level from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,772 to 2,779 area.
I also want to point out that Friday's low is sitting on the 200 EMA. This is a strong support level. That price is 2,759.90.
If it can't hold, I would expect the price to continue to drop.
And for the week, the S & P 500 formed an inside bar as well.
So, you want to monitor the weekly high and low as well. The high was 2,816.94 and the low was 2,749.03.
On a weekly basis, the S & P 500 actually closed .65 points higher.
The resistance levels from last week's weekly bar is in the 2,766 to 2,793 area.
The close of 2,767.78 should also be monitored.
Earnings continue this week. Thursday, we will hear from a few of the leading stocks, including GOOGL, AMZN, CMG, and BIDU.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 10 points higher.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 19.98. To move lower, the VIX will need two closes under 17.19. And to move higher, it will need two closes above 20.31.
I am looking for resistance at 21.88. If the VIX does turn back from that level, it should drop.
18.75 should be minor support. A break under 18.75 and the VIX should continue lower.
SPX:
Major level: 2,939.50
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33 ***
Major level: 2,744.10
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50
Major level: 2,695.30
2,758.80 should still offer support. Friday's high did take out 2,793.
Short term charts do remain bearish, so another drop should happen before heading higher. It looks like we got that yesterday.
If the S & P 500 can clear 2,758.80 is should continue higher.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
The QQQ closed at 173.02. 171.88 should offer minor support. If the QQQ does close under 171.88 for two days, it could drop to 162.
But, watch for support at 171.88.
The QQQ needs to clear 173.44 to head higher.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 153.36. With a close today under 154.69, the IWM should test 150.
The midband should now be resistance. That level is 157.87.
153.13 should offer support.
The lower band on the 60 minute is 150.34. Technical resistance is at 165.83.
TLT:
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45
Major level: 114.06
Minor level: 113.67 **
Minor level: 112.89
Major level: 112.50
The TLT closed at 113.71. The 114.45 and 114.06 levels should be minor resistance.
And if the TLT has two closes under 113.67, it should drop to 112.50.
A break under 113.67 and the TLT should head lower.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02 **
Major level: 115.63 <
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 116.01. The GLD continues to bounce off its oversold condition.
117.19 should be resistance. And 114.84 should offer support.
I would not expect this bounce to move higher than 118.75.
Two closes above 116.02 and the GLD should test 118.75. Look for resistance at 116.80.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00 <
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66 **
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 71.53. The XLE broke under the 71.88 level. To drop to 68.75, the XLE needs two closes under 71.10.
I don't see the XLE dropping lower than 70.31.
FXY:
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97 **
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 84.18
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59
The FXY closed at 84.91. A close today under 84.97 and the FXY should test 84.38.
85.16 should be resistance. If the FXY can clear this level, it should head higher.
AAPL:
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 229.69
Minor level: 226.56
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 223.44
Minor level: 220.31 **
Major level: 218.75 <
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Apple closed at 219.31. Watch the minor 217.19 level today. If Apple closes under 217.19, it would drop to 212.
217.19 should now offer support. And support should be at 218.75.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ANTM, CME, LH, AWK, WBA, WBA, LW, PEG, CNK, NYT, DAR, TDS
Bearish Stocks: BIDU, GD, MLM, BABA, IBM, ITW, RHT, RCL, WYNN, SWKS, ALNY, WLK, SINA, CCL, SLB, MNST
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
