While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
SNAP Long at $15.20
Premium Collected - $1.53
Short Oct 27th-$15.50 Call - ($0.30)
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $0.43
THC Long at $14.63
Short Oct 27th-$15 call - ($0.40)
Premium Collected - $0.80
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Objective hit! The target for the S & P 500 for quite sometime now has been to 2,578.10.
And yesterday's high came in at 2,578.29, taking out the target by 19 cents.
I admit that it started to look like the objective would not get hit. With all the narrow range trading days leading up to yesterday, it started to look like it would fail.
And with the VIX down to the all time support level of 9.38, we should expect the inevitable bounce. And today we got one. As the S & P 500 hit its objective and sold off, the VIX bounced. The VIX ended the day up .94 to close at 10.91. For the day, the VIX was up 9.43%.
After gapping up at the open and hitting the objective, the S & P 500 sold off the balance of the day. The index closed down 10.23 points on the day. If closed at 2,564.98.
So, is this the start of a bear market?
Not necessarily.
I think we would need to see a lot more deterioration in the market before we can make that assessment.
The other reason I say that is because the S & P 500 took out the major 2,500 level. I felt that was a significant price level and indicates to me that the market should rally again after a pullback.
In fact, the 2,500 level should offer strong support on a sell off.
The final reason I don't believe this starts a bear market is because the S & P 500 is still trading above the uppter band on the monthly chart. That price level is 2,438.53.
The market is still trading about 120 points above it. I would think that for a bear market to begin, it would have to close back inside the upper band.
One final comment is that both the 30 & 60 minute charts for the S & P 500 are uptrending.
Support should be in the 2,550 area. Also, watch the support level from last week's price bar in the 2,562 to 2,565 area.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 10.16 **
Major level: 9.38 <
Minor level: 8.99
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
The VIX closed at 11.07. 12.50 should be resistance. To move up to the 12.50 level, the VIX would need two closes above 11.33.
10.55 should be minor support.
$SPX:
Minor level: 2,587.88 Hit
Major level: 2,578.10 <
Minor level: 2,558.60 **
Minor level: 2,548.85
Major level: 2,539.10
Minor level: 2,529.33
Minor level: 2,509.78
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,492.20
To move lower, the S & P 500 will need two closes under 2,558.60.
Minor support should be at 2,561.60. 2,571 could offer resistance.
Short term momentum remains bullish.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 ***
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.18 ***
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50 5
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed at 147.74. The QQQ closed under the 148.44 level. A close today under 148.44 implies a tes of 143.75.
The minor support is at 147.27. 148.44 could offer minor resistance. Short term momentum remains bullish.
IWM:
Minor level: 150.78 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 149.22 **
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 145.32
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
The IWM closed at 148.86. A close under 149.22 implies a drop to 146.88.
149.61 could offer minor resistance. And the minor 148.44 level should offer support.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Major level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
The TLT closed at 124.20. A close today above 123.83 implies a move up to 125.
125 is minor resistance and 123.83 is minor support.
GLD:
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.80. The 121.88 should should still offer resistance. If the GLD gets above this level, it should continue higher.
The next minor level is 121.10 A break under this levels implies a move lower.
Two closes above 122.66 and the GLD should move up to 125.
XLE:
Major level: 71.89
Minor level: 71.11
Minor level: 69.54
Major level: 68.75 **
Minor level: 67.97 <
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 67.42. The XLE broke under the mid band on its daily chart. The mid band is 67.73. This should be resistance.
Look for support at 65.63. 67.97 should be minor resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.55 ***
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38 <
The FXY closed at 84.75. The 84.38 objective was hit. The low yesterday was 84.35. Two closes above 84.77 and the objective is 85.94.
84.38 should offer minor support. 85.16 should offer minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 165.63, 162.50, 159.38, 156.25, 153.13, and 150.
Apple closed right on the 156.17, just under the 156.25 level. Still trying to hold this level.
157.81 should also be a resistance level. And 155.47 is minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BIIB, BA, MMM, LRCX, NVDA, CMI, ADBE, FB, PANW, HON, BLUE, DE, CAT, ADSK, VRSN, KLAC, ALL
Bearish Stocks: AYI, TSRO, PZZA, MMP, ACIA, DXCM, NWL, BPL
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
