While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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MCD Long November 1st - $192.50 call for $1.60
MCD Short November 1st - $195.00 call for $0.54
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The S & P 500 stalled slightly yesterday. For the day, the S & P closed 2.56 points lower.
The market closed out at 3,036.86. This is still above the upside level of 3,007.85, which should now be support.
And now with the 60 minute chart in an uptrend, I would expect price to head higher.
Of course, the market could be derailed today with the Fed announcement regarding interest rates. As you know, this is the type of marketwide announcemnt that can produce extreme volatility.
But, the momentum is clearly to the upside at this point with a projected objective up to 3,125.00.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,036 to 3,041 area.
Yesterday's range was only 13.06 points which is about half the daily average true range, which now reads 26.60.
The concern now is the VIX being at all time lows. The VIX will have to make a push lower for the market to continue higher.
But, at some point, the VIX will bounce signalling a pullback in the market.
Pre open, the S & P is trading relatively flat.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 13.20 yesterday. The VIX moved up 9 cents yesterday.
As I mentioned yesterday, 13.28 should be resistance and the VIX could not close above it. This level should still be resistance until it is taken out.
The VIX would need two closes above 13.28 to move up to 15.63.
Watch the 12.89 level on the downside. A break under this and it should head lower.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
At this point, the objective for the S & P should be up to 3,125. The 3,027.30 level should now be support. If that level is violated, I would expect strong support at 3,002.90.
3,018 should offer technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77 **
Major level: 196.88 <
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
The QQQ closed at 196.04.
The next minor level on the upside is 197.77. Two closes above this level and the objective should be to 200.
The 196 area should offer support. And if it is taken out, I would expect strong support at 194.53, which is where technical support is.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 Hit!
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 156.85. At this point, the IWM will need two closes above 157.81 to move up to 162.50.
154.69 should still be a support level. And technical support is around 155.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 135.84 **
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 137.35. The TLT will need to clear 137.50 to head higher.
The next level to watch should be 135.84. Two closes under this level and the TLT should test 131.
136.72 is a support level. A break under it and the TLT should head lower.
Technical resistance is around 139.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 140.25. 139.84 is a minor support level. A break under 139.84 and the GLD should drop to 137.
140.63 should be resistance.
137.50 should offer support on the downside. And this is right around the technical support level.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.42. The 59.38 level should offer support. Watch to see if the XLE can hold this level.
58.59 should offer support on the downside.
Resistance is stll at the midband on the daily chart, which is 61.50. It will have to clear this level to head higher.
Technical support is still around the 58 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63 **
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 243.29. Apple sold off $5.76 yesterday. But, I did mention yesterday that Apple was overbought in the short short, so this pullback should not be unexpected.
240.63 should offer support. Apple could drop to 237.50 and the trend would still be bullish.
Technical support is around the 238 level.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, ORLY, FLT, LRCS, AAPL, PANW, RH, CMI, UNP, KLAC, PSX, CELG, TIF,
Bearish Stocks: BA, LOGM, IRBT, RCI, CHL, CBS, NTGR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
