While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
SNAP Long at $15.20
SNAP Short Oct 13th - $15.50 Call at $0.30
Premium Collected - $0.58
PANW Long Oct $145 Call at $2.44
AMC Long at $15.27
AMC Short Oct $16 Call at $0.43
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The S & P 500 paused after the Non Farm Payroll on Friday, but it still closed above 2,548.85. The market closed just above it, at 2,549.33.
Friday was the second day in a row that the S & P 500 closed above 2,548.85.
This now implies that the objective for the S & P 500 is to 2,578.10.
For the week, the market closed to the upside 29.97 points. Based on the strong bullish weekly price bar, support should be in the 2,536 area.
So, on a pullback, I would expect this price area to hold as support.
On the daily chart, Friday formed an inside day and a range contraction. This would imply an expansion. Watch to see if price can take out Friday's high, which was 2,549.41.
Finally, both shorter term intra day charts for the S & P 500 remain firmly in uptrends. On the 30 minute chart, the 253 day average is 2,510 and for the 60 minute chart, it is 2,483. Both these levels should offer support on a pullback. And with the S & P 500 trading well above these levels, the market could pullback about 70 points and the uptrend would still be in effect.
The VIX did break under 9.38 on Friday. It hit a low of 9.11 before closing at 9.64. So, the VIX closed to the upside slightly. The VIX would have to close above 10.16 to confirm a move higher.
We were able to close out the PANW calls and recoup most of what we paid for them.
Pre open, the market is trading about 5 points to the upside. Assuming an open above Friday's high, look for support at that level.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38 <
Minor level: 8.99 **
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
The VIX closed at 9.64. The low for the day was 9.11.
To move lower, the VIX will need two closes under 8.99. To move higher, the VIX would need two closes above 10.16.
Minor support should be at 8.59. And minor resistance is at 9.77.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,578.10 <
Minor level: 2,558.60
Minor level: 2,548.85 **
Major level: 2,539.10 <
Minor level: 2,529.33
Minor level: 2,509.78
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,492.20
Minor level: 2,476.00
Major level: 2,468.80
The objective now becomes 2,578, with a close at 2,549.33 on Friday.
2,542.70 should offer minor support. 2,561.00 could offer resistance on the first attempt.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 ***
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.18 ***
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed at 147.66. The QQQ continues to move up to the 150 objective.
The minor support is at 147.27. Friday's high was exactly the minor resistance level at 147.66. If the QQQ can clear 147.66, expect it to move higher.
IWM:
Minor level: 150.78 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 149.22 **
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 145.32
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
The IWM closed at 150.05, just above the major 150 level.
150.78 could offer minor resistance and 149.61 is minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Major level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61**
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
The TLT closed at 123.59. The objective should be to 123.44.
123.63 is minor resistance and 122.85 is minor support.
GLD:
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.09. The GLD should drop to 118.75. At this point, I would expect resistance at 121.88.
Minor support is at 119.92. Friday, the GLD closed exactly on the minor resistance level at 121.09. If the GLD can clear 121.09, expect it to offer support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.89
Minor level: 71.11
Minor level: 69.54
Major level: 68.75 **
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE closed at 68.07. I would not expect the XLE to drop under 67.77.
67.97 should be minor support. 68.36 could offer resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.55 ***
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38 <
The FXY closed at 85.26. The objective should still be down to 84.38.
85.94 should offer minor resistance. 84.67 is minor support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 165.63, 162.50, 159.38, 156.25, 153.13, and 150.
Apple closed at 155.30, down 9 cents on the day.
Apple is approaching the midband on its 30 minute chart. That level is 155.61. If it can clear this level, it should continue higher. Also, the 30 minute chart is close to crossing into an uptrend. After it has a bullish crossover, there should be long opportunities.
156.25 should also be a resistance level. And 154.69 is minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, LMT, NOC, SPY, MMM, GD, STZ, BA, NFLX, NVDA, CMI, AET, HON, CME, UTX, CHKP
Bearish Stocks: RL, WBA, PZZA, WOR, FL, PBH, BBBY
Be sure to check earnings release dates.