It now appears that the ?Alibaba? correction (BABA) is at hand.
I warned you, pleaded with you, and begged you about this yesterday, and on May 8 (click here for ?Will Alibaba Blow Up the Market?).
The longer the company postponed the mother of all IPO?s, the higher the prices flew, until we finally got a print at the absolute apex of the market. Now, it?s time to pay the piper.
The development is part of a broader move out of riskier, higher beta stocks into safe, large caps that has been underway for several weeks now. Those traders who are ahead want to protect their years. Those who aren?t are screwed anyway, so don?t bother returning their phone calls.
Look no further than my favorite, Tesla (TSLA), which topped out on September 3, along with the rest of the MoMo high technology, biotechnology and Internet names.
Still love the cars, though.
The (IWM) has really been sucking hind teat all year, falling by 3% year to date compared to an 8% gain in the S&P 500.
Yesterday, the sushi really hit the fan when the 50-day moving average pierced the 200-day moving average for the first time since August, 2011. Known as a much dreaded ?death cross,? this is the technical equivalent of slitting both wrists and thrashing about in shark-invested waters, heralding more declines to come.
Let me list the reasons why this is the sector traders love to hate when markets move from ?RISK ON? to ?RISK OFF?:
*Since small companies borrow more than large companies, they are far more sensitive to rising interest rates. Guess what? Rates have been rocketing this month.
*Since small companies are more leveraged (indebted) than big ones, they are more sensitive to a slowing economy.
*Small companies don?t have the international diversification of their bigger brethren, and therefore have less of a financial cushion to fall back on.
*The (IWM) has roughly 1.5 times the volatility of the S&P 500, making a short position here fantastic downside protection for a broader based portfolio of stocks. So you get a lot of selling here, as managers try to lock in performance for fiscal years that start ending as early as October 31.
*Did I mention that the stock market is at one of its most overbought levels in history, the worst since 1928? Bearish sentiment is at only 13%, the lowest since 1987. These are more reason to sell, as if you needed any.
My readers have made tons of money over the years playing the (IWM) on the short side. It?s time for another visit to the trough. I?m not finishing my year early.
Not yet, anyway.
If you can?t trade options, then buy the Short Russell 2000 Fund ETF (RWM) as a 1X play, or the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA) for a 3X trade. However, 3X ETF?s of any kind are for intra day traders only.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg308400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-24 01:05:532014-09-24 01:05:53Time to Bail on the Small Caps
Like a deer frozen in a car?s onrushing headlights, markets have been comatose awaiting Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen?s decision on monetary policy and interest rates.
Interest rates are unchanged. Quantitative easing gets cut by $15 billion next month, and then goes to zero. Most importantly the key ?considerable period? language stayed in the FOMC statements, meaning that interest rates are staying lower for longer.
Personally, I don?t think she?s raising interest rates until 2016. The number of dissenters increased from one to two, but then both of them (Fisher and Plosser) are lame ducks. And, oh yes, the composition of the 2015 Fed will be the most dovish in history.
The latest data points made this a no brainer, what with the August nonfarm payroll coming in at a weak 142,000, and this morning?s CPI plunging to a deflationary -0.20% for the first time since the crash.
Of course, you already knew all of this if you have been reading the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You knew it three months ago, six months ago, and even a year ago, before Janet Yellen was appointed as America?s chief central banker. Such is the benefit of lunching with her for five years while she was president of the San Francisco Fed.
The markets reacted predictably, with the Euro (FXE), (EUO), and the yen (FXY), (YCS) hitting new multiyear lows, Treasury bonds (TLT), (TBT) breaking down, and precious metals (GLD), (SLV) taking it on the kisser.
What Janet did not do was give us an entry point for an equity Trade Alert (SPY), with the indexes close to unchanged on the day. The high frequency trader?s front ran the entire move yesterday.
Virtually all asset classes are now sitting at the end of extreme moves, up for the dollar (UUP) and stocks, and down for the euro, yen, gold, silver, the ags, bonds and oil. It?s not a good place to dabble.
Putting on a trade here is a coin toss. And when you?re up 30.36% on the year, you don?t do coin tosses. At this time of the year, protecting gains is more important than chasing marginal gains, which people probably won?t believe anyway.
If you want to understand my uncharacteristic cautiousness, take a look at the chart below sent by a hedge fund buddy of mine. It shows that investor credit at all time highs are pushing to nosebleed altitudes. Not good, not good. Oops! Did somebody just say ?Flash Crash??
This is not to say that I?m bearish, I?m just looking for a better entry point, especially as the Q????????? 3 quarter end looms. I?ve gotten spoiled this year. Maybe the Scottish election results, the Alibaba IPO, or the midterm congressional elections will give us one. Buying here at a new all time high doesn?t qualify.
It?s time to maintain your discipline.
Sorry, no more pearls of wisdom today. I?ve come down with the flu.
Apparently, this year?s flu shot doesn?t cover the virulent Portland, Oregon variety. Was it the designer coffee that did it, the vintage clothes, or those giant doughnuts dripping with sugar?
Back to the aspirin, the antibiotics, the vitamin ?C?, and a chant taught to me by a Cherokee medicine man.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/John-Thomas5-e1410989501597.jpg400266Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-18 01:04:402014-09-18 01:04:40She Speaks!
For the first time in three years, the model trading portfolio of my Trade Alert service has no positions. It is 100% in cash.
I took a small profit on my last remaining position on Friday, a long in the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), a bet that Treasury bond prices would fall and yields would rise. Call it rocketing back up to breakeven.
It?s not that I have suddenly fallen in love with the bond market. Au Contraire, I think this is the beginning of a move in Treasury bond yields that could take the ten year yields up from last month?s lowly 2.32% all the way to 3.0%, possibly by yearend.
That would boost the (TBT) by another 35% from here. However, discretion is the better part of valor, and it is better to allow markets to breathe, especially after bonds have made a whopping great six point move down in a week.
That last tactical move left me up 30.36% for 2014. This compares to the average hedge fund that is up only 7%, a Dow average that has appreciated by a mere 3%, and 90% of managers are underperforming even these arthritic benchmarks.
I have to tell you, I kind of like being up 30.36%. In fact, I like it so much that I have taken to standing back and admiring it.
I like to drive it around the block at least once a day. I have had a temporary tattoo made for my forearm that says ?30.36%.? I now wear a button on my lapel that says ?30.36%.?
At my club I have moved my locker to number 3036, although the members there are getting sick of me talking about it all the time and are thinking of having me blackballed.
One reason I am out of the market is that everything I have done over the past four months has worked. The Euro (FXE) and the Yen (FXY), (YCS) collapsed against the US dollar as I expected. Stocks went to new all time highs, despite the abuse that my bullish predictions invited. The bond market peaked and began a precipitous slide.
Apple rallied into the iPhone 6 announcement, right on schedule. Oil crashed, and gold died a slow death. Only a snakebite from General Motors (GM) prevented this from becoming a perfect quarter.
It?s not like I am going to stay out of the market forever. You can?t rest on your laurels for long in the financial advisory business. You really are only as good as your last trade, and readers constantly want to know what I have done for them lately.
Markets are coming to the end of their ?TIME? correction, and there are two important triggers looming ahead of us. Today, Janet Yellen clarifies Fed policy for the next six weeks, and on Friday, the Alibaba IPO starts to trade.
You know that great sucking sound you?ve been hearing all month? That is the sound of managers selling other stocks to make room for their allocations on this gargantuan $20 billion issue.
First went other Chinese Internet companies (BIDU), then Apple (AAPL), then technology in general, then other highflyers in health care (XLV), biotech (IBB), and energy (XLE), then the main market as a whole (SPY).
That sucking sound ended five minutes after yesterday?s market opening. Then it was back to business as usual, shutting out underweight mangers trying to get in. I think this story continues for the rest of the year.
I worked so late last night that I ended up doing my daily ten-mile hike mostly in the dark. What do I come upon but an entire hind leg of a deer (see photo below). The draught in California is so severe that many animals are starving and becoming unusually aggressive.
So I called my mother, a true daughter of the old American West and one eighth Cherokee Indian. I asked ?Hey Mom, can a coyote take down a deer?? ?No, son,? she answered. ?They eat mostly small animals like rabbits. Only a mountain lion can take down a deer.?
I said ?Thanks Mom, call you later.? and hurried down the hill.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/John-Thomas4-e1410963740960.jpg379275Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-17 10:38:522014-09-17 10:38:52Why I Have No Positions
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi pulled the rug out from under the Euro (FXE), (EUO) this morning, announcing a surprise cut in interest rate and substantially adding to its program of quantitative easing.
The action caused the beleaguered currency to immediately gap down two full cents against the dollar, the ETF hitting a 15 month low of $127.40.
Surprise, that is, to everyone except a handful of strategists, including myself. Apparently, I was one of 4 out of 47 economists polled who saw the move coming, beating on my drum out of the coming collapse of the euro for the past six months.
I put my money where my mouth was, slamming out Trade Alerts to sell the Euro short, and sometimes even running a double position.
Of course, it helps that I just spent two months on the continent splurging at 90% off sales, and afterwards feasting on $10 Big Macs and $20 ice cream cones. Europe was practically begging for a weaker currency. Shorting the Euro against the greenback appeared to be a no-brainer.
A number of key economic indicators conspired to force Draghi?s hand this time around. August Eurozone inflation fell to a feeble 0.3%. France cut its 2014 GDP estimate at the knees, from 1.0% to 0.5%. Unemployment hovers at a gut wrenching 11.5%. To the continent?s leaders it all looked like a deflationary lost decade was unfolding, much like we saw in Japan.
Call the move an hour late, and a dollar short. Or more like 43,800 hours late and $4 trillion short. The US Federal Reserve started its own aggressive quantitative easing five years ago. The fruits of Ben Bernanke?s bold move are only just now being felt.
A major reason for the delay is that having a new currency, Europe lacks the breadth and depth of financial instruments in which it can maneuver. The Euro will soon be approaching its 15th birthday. Uncle Buck has been around since 1782.
The ECB?s move is bold when compared to its recent half hearted efforts to stimulate its economy. Its overnight lending rate has been cut from 0.15% to 0.05%, the lowest in history. Deposit rates have been pushed further into negative territory, from -0.10% to -0.20%. Yes, you have to pay banks to take your money! A QE program will lead to the purchase of 400 billion Euros worth of securities.
Am I selling more Euros here?
Nope.
I covered the last of my shorts last week, after catching the move in the (FXE) from $136 down to $130. That?s a major reason why my model trading portfolio is up a blistering 30% so far this year.
At $127, we are bang on my intermediate downside target. But get me a nice two or three cent short covering rally, and I?ll be back in there in a heartbeat. My next downside targets are $120, $117, and eventually $100. My European vacations are getting cheaper by the day.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Dollar-Certificate-e1409868770980.jpg400305Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-05 01:04:162014-09-05 01:04:16A Euro Collapse At Last!
Regular readers of this letter are probably weary of me harping away about the financials as a great place to put your money for the rest of 2014.
Never mind that these names have all jumped 10% in the past month. But this is not an ?I told you so? story. This is more of a ?But wait, there?s more,? story.
The basis for my call is quite simple. I believe that bond prices are peaking, and yields bottoming. As mining the yield curve is a major source of bank profits, borrowing short term and lending long term, a rise in interest rates falls straight to the bottom line. Thus, buying banks is an indirect way of selling short the bond market.
However, there are many more reasons to overweight this long neglected sector. In a market that has gone virtually straight up for the past three years, many large institutions are going to be forced to roll money out of leaders, like my favored technology, energy and health care, into laggards, such as the financials.
Expect this trend to accelerate as we head into yearend institutional book closing, which start as early as October 30.
Look at other important drivers of bank profits, and you?ll find them at multi decade lows.
Trading and investment banking volumes are off 30%-40% from mean historic levels. We options traders already know this all too well, as turnover has cratered and spreads widened due to investor lack of interest.
This is especially true of put options, which are now being given away virtually for free. Volatility that seems to permanently live at the $12 handle is another such indicator of this disinterest.
This will not last. If my ?Golden Age? scenario plays out in the 2020?s (click here for ?Get Ready for the Coming Golden Age?), trading and investment banking volumes will not only double to return to the norms, they will skyrocket tenfold from today?s tedious, moribund levels.
Indeed, I have recently discovered an entire subculture of financial oriented private equity firms currently amassing portfolios that are betting on precisely such an outcome. Think of big, smart, long-term money. The big bets on the coming decade are being made now.
There is another ripple in the case for banks. After passage of the Financial Stability Act of 2010, otherwise known as ?Dodd Frank?, banks became target numero uno of the federal government. The public?s demand for accountability for the 2008-09 crash knew no bounds.
As a result, the fines and settlements with the big banks, most of which were rescued from bankruptcy by the government, now well exceed $100 billion. Four years into the enforcement onslaught, the Feds are running out of scandals to prosecute. There is nothing left for the banks to plead guilty to.
This means that a major portion of the banks? costs are about to disappear, not only new massive fines, but hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees and diverted management time as well. More money drops to the bottom line.
Dramatically rising income? Substantially falling costs? Sounds like ?Ka-ching? to me, and a ?BUY? for the bank stocks.
The bottom line is that bank stock could double from here in coming years. It is not hard to pick names. Bank of America (BAC) took the big hit on fines and settlements, and therefore should enjoy the largest bounce.
So should Citigroup (C), which came the closest to vaporizing. And for good measure, I?ll throw in American Express (AXP) as a play on the burgeoning credit card spending by the growing class of well to do.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/John-Thomas-and-Barney-Frank.jpg357577Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-03 09:29:542014-09-03 09:29:54The Case for Buying Financials
In recent weeks, I couldn?t help but notice the green and white vans of Solar City (SCTY) visiting my neighbors. My trader?s radar went up, so I thought there might be an opportunity here.
With my second Tesla (TSLA) about to be delivered, the Model X SUV, it was time for me to review my electricity bill.
My first Tesla, an S-1, boosted my monthly power consumption from 600 kWh to 1,800 kWh per month, about what a small industrial facility might use. Yet, my bill from PG&E increased from only $350 to $450 a month. This is because they effectively give away power for free from 12:00 AM to 7:00 AM to qualified EV users, charging me only 4.7 cents per kWh.
On my suggestion, Tesla then upgraded their software so vehicles could be programmed to recharge only at these hours. That means it is costing me $4.00 for a full 80 kWh charge that can take me 255 miles, or 1.6 cents a mile. That doesn?t include the enormous savings on maintenance (there is none).
Well then! The IRS currently allows a mileage deduction of 56 cents per mile for business purposes, so that?s an opportunity to exploit right there.
Given that the average US car now gets 25 miles per gallon of gasoline (and that is being generous), that means my equivalent cost for running my S-1 works out to paying a scant 40 cents a gallon.
This compares to the $3.60 at the local service station ($3.45 at Costco), which is at a one year low, or a savings of 89%. That is a little more than I paid for gas when I first started driving a beat up VW Bug at the Santa Anita Race Track parking lot back in 1967.
That sounds like a deal to me.
However, the second Tesla is likely to boost my monthly power consumption from 1,800 kWh to 3,000. When PG&E sees bills that big, they assume someone is operating an illegal marijuana grow house and send the DEA to kick your door down at 5:00 AM on a Monday morning.
So I was on the phone to Solar City the next morning. What I heard was nothing less than amazing.
For a start, they called up a Google Earth mapping program that focused on a picture of my roof from a low earth orbit satellite (Google has invested $280 million in Solar City). Then a second program autofit their existing solar panels to my roof and spit out a mass of numbers.
This complete stranger told me things about my roof that I never knew, like it was 4,000 square feet of flat concrete tiles on 14 planes. Welcome to the 21st century.
I nervously looked down and made sure my fly was fully zipped up.
He went on to tell me that he could fit a 15 kW DC system on my roof that would generate 106% of my power needs, generating 19,365 kWh a year. That would make me completely self sufficient in electricity, even though I will be charging two hulking Tesla 1,000 pound lithium ion batteries every day.
They will install a ?net? two-way electric meter on my house. When the sun shines, it will run backwards as I can sell power to PG&E (PCG) at high prices.
At night, when I recharge my cars, I would then buy cheap power from Solar City. No storage devices are required. The PG&E grid is effectively the storage system. That would turn me into a day trader of electricity, selling high by day and buying low by night. I love it!
How did their satellite know I was a hedge fund trader? What else does it know?
Now comes the best part. The cost of the installation and panels was $66,000. Solar City would do it for free. Yes, free, as in gratis, with no money down. They would lease me the panels for 20 years, with an annual price increase of 6.2%. That would cut my monthly electricity bill from $450 to $200. It does this by eliminating the tier 3, 4 and 5 prices I am currently paying PG&E.
If I sell my house, I can either buy out my contract at the discounted, fully depreciated value, or pass it on to the new owners. It is well known that solar panels significantly increase the value of existing homes.
Installation can be done in a day. But it can only take place on unbreakable concrete tile roofs. Those made of clay tiles, metal, tar and gravel, wood shakes, or slate don?t work for various reasons. You need a FICO score of 680 or better to qualify. There is a 60-day waiting list to get this done.
It didn?t take me long to figure out the game here. By purchasing the panels and leasing them to me, they keep the 30% government subsidy for capital investments in alternative energy, which works out to $19,890 for my house alone. Solar city also gets to depreciate these panels on an accelerated schedule, mostly in the first five years.
This explains why Solar City has grown larger than the next 15 competitors combined. Solar City?s largest customer is the US Army, which has already installed panels on 1 million structures.
There is one cautionary note to add here. The government subsidies that help float the company expire in 2018, making the entire proposition financially less attractive. That is, unless they get renewed. Think President Hillary.
The only things that would save them are dramatically higher conventional energy costs. However, right now energy costs are heading the opposite direction, thanks to fracking.
As with everything else Elon Musk touches, an investment in Solar City has been wildly successful. Since the company went public at the end of 2012, the shares have risen by an awesome 670%. Needless to say, with no earnings, and no dividend, the $6.5 billion market cap company may appear hopelessly expensive.
Like with Elon?s other company, Tesla, your aren?t betting on the value of the business today, but where it will be in five years, when it has a far larger share of the market.
Given Musk?s track record so far, that is a bet that I am willing to take.
My Home from Outer Space
It?s Been a Long and Winding Road Driving from This?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/John-Thomas-Tesla.jpg330317Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-28 09:35:342014-08-28 09:35:34Taking a Look at Solar City
Those who followed my advice to buy Apple a year ago are now drowning in riches (click here for ?Buy Apple on the Dip?). Since the July, 2013 bottom, the shares have risen by a meteoric 92%. It is the largest company in the world once again.
As a result, I have heard of my readers shopping for second homes on Lake Tahoe, sponsoring NASCAR teams, or buying new Rolex watches for significant others.
I recommended China Mobile (CHL) then as well, the big beneficiary of a new deal with Apple, whose shares have also gone ballistic.
The question of the day is: ?Now what do we do?
You are right to ask the question. The company?s stock is notorious for running up massively into every major product launch, and then giving back a big chunk afterwards.
So while the expected announcement of the iPhone 6 on September 9 is welcomed as producing a major new source of revenue, it could also signal the end of the current run.
Take a look at the long-term charts, and the hair on the back of your neck should stand up. The fanfare for the iPhone 6 will almost exactly come at a potential double top in the stock price. Could we be setting up for the greatest ?buy the rumor, sell the news? of all time?
The last time we visited this territory, which we visited on the launch of the iPhone 5, Apple?s shares plunged a gut churning 45%, prompting some shareholders to dump their iPhones in the trash.
Certainly the problems that caused the rally to fail last time are kicking in once again. The law of large numbers applies once more. Apple?s market capitalization is at $607 billion today. There may not be enough equity investors in the world to push the shares up appreciably from here.
Oh, and because of the recent rapid appreciation, most institutions are now overweight Apple, as they were in September, 2012. The only difference is that Apple accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500, compared to a hefty 5% two years ago.
The shares are now at a 15.5 earnings multiple, up from under 10 at the recent bottom, and 7 if you took out all of the cash. That is still a discount to the main market, as well as most other technology stocks.
The truth is that this is not your father?s Apple.
CEO Tim Cook has shown a much greater respect for investors compared to founder, Steve Jobs, who despised Wall Street with a passion. I know, because I escorted Steve to meet with institutional investors looking at a secondary share issue during the early 1980?s. It was not a happy time for me.
There is a $50 billion stock buyback program in place, which soaked up a ton of shares at the bottom.
We also now have a 2% dividend yield, a mere 37 basis points through ten year Treasury bond today, another idea Jobs poo pooed.
The company is also strategically in a much stronger position than it was in 2012. Apple has a far broader, more attractive, and more advanced product range than it did only 24 months ago. The China Mobile deal has kicked in big time.
There is immense demand for the new larger screen, faster iPhone 6, which will offer consumer untold bells and whistles. Some 50% of the iPhones in existence are 4s?s or older, so upgrades from the installed base will the largest in history.
This will enable it to retake market share from hated rival, Samsung, which moved to a big screen in 2013. This will open the way for an expansion of Apple?s profit margins, possibly by 25% or more.
Samsung?s smart phone strategy all along has been to copy Apple?s patents and milk them for whatever they are worth, before they inevitably lose the next infringement case in court. As I never tire of telling listeners at my speaking engagements and luncheons, you can?t steal your way to the top in technology.
I would expect, at the very least, that the market has to put the double top theory to the test at least once. That alone will prompt a 10% correction, back down to $92.
Then, if we really are still in a bull trend, it will bounce off that number and head to new highs. If it doesn?t, then it?s game over until the run up to the next big product launch. The iPhone 7?
So the clever thing to do here has to be to do a buy write and sell short Apple September, 2014 $105 calls against you existing stock position.
At this moment, you can get 96 cents for them, with September 19 expiration. If you are braver still, you can go out another month and take in $2.01 for the October 17, 2014 calls. Don?t go farther out than that, or you might miss the yearend rally.
That way, if the stock keeps rising, you will sell your shares out at the higher price of $105. If it falls, your average cost declines by 96 cents, or $2.01. Either way, it is a win-win.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/iPhones.jpg250484Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-27 01:04:002014-08-27 01:04:00What to Do About Apple?
We have snatched 92% of the potential profit in the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) September, 2014 $133-$135 in-the-money bear put spread, riding the Euro (FXE) down on the short side, from $1.33 down to $1.30.
The risk/reward of continuing with such a large position is no longer justified.
So I am going to reduce my overweight position down from 20% back to a more normal 10%. If you are similarly overweight the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO), I would also be lightening up, retuning to a normal weighting there as well.
I have not suddenly fallen in love with the beleaguered continental currency. I think we are headed towards $1.27, $1.20, and eventually $1.00. This is just a short-term tactical move.
That way, if by some miracle, we get a two-cent rally in the Euro, I will have plenty of dry powder to reload with and add more shorts.
The big event of the weekend was European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, ramping up his war on his own currency.
On Friday evening, after the markets closed and traders were long gone for the Hamptons, Bal Harbor, or Napa Valley (oops), Draghi ramped up his rhetoric, warning that he would use ?all available tools? to spur Europe?s economy. This is central banker talk for throwing down the gauntlet at the feet of the monetary hawks (read Germans).
He then threw the fat on the fire, opining that the recent decline an inflation expectations were a concern, and this was a topic for the coming September 4 ECB meeting. Translation: this is a central banker?s equivalent to giving the hawks the middle finger salute, and then putting the pedal to the metal on the easing front.
The bottom line for all of this is that the ECB is almost certain to cut Euro interest rates next week. As interest rates differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange markets, this is great news for the greenback and terrible news for the Euro.
After that, we may get a small rally in the Euro, as short sellers, like me, take profits. This has been the pattern with other Euro interest rates reductions in the past. That is the rally I want to resell into.
You can expect this pattern to continue until Europe solves its structural monetary problems, which will take years. The current flawed system dramatically undervalues Germany?s currency, while overvaluing the currencies of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece.
This is why the German economy is healthy, while everyone else?s economies suck. Without the Euro, the old deutschmark would be double or triple what it was, demolishing the country?s massive export business. In the meantime, the other countries would be devaluing their own currencies like crazy.
We caught the entire reaction to Draghi?s verbiage at this morning?s opening, with the Euro gapping down a full half-cent against the dollar. The stop loss selling was severe.
I wish all my trades were this easy. Since I doubled up on the short side, the Euro has been in a complete free fall. European dithering has been one of the lowest risk bets of 2014.
That said, I think I?ll get back to cleaning up my earthquake damage.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Falling-100-Bills-Euros.jpg249430Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-26 01:04:512014-08-26 01:04:51Why I?m Covering Some Euro Shorts
If anyone had any doubts about the future direction of stocks this year, you better take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500.
It shows a very convincing trend upward at almost a perfect 45-degree angle going back for the past year. The range is 100 points wide. It?s almost as if an architect drew it with drafting tools.
To take maximum advantage of this trend, you have to buy every 80 dip, as the floor is constantly rising. It?s as simple as that. Think of Trading 101 for Dummies.
We have had a host of challenges that threatened to knock us out of this channel for the past year.
A second Cold War with Russia? Wake me up when it?s over.
The ongoing collapse of Iraq? Snore?
The suspension of oil exports from Libya barely elicited a blip on your screen, as did the horrific civil war in Syria, a replay of the Middle Ages.
China slowdown? Pshaw! ?Sell in May and Go Away?? Cancelled!
Subpar American economic growth? No problemo.
All of these problems the market has weathered nicely, much like a wet dog shakes off water.
In fact, it has been three years since we endured the distress of a 10% correction, the self-inflicted wound triggered by the government?s hand wringing debt ceiling crisis.
In the end, it amounted to nothing, and was the last decent buying opportunity traders have seen. It has all be one giant ?chase? for performance and reach for yield since then.
The lesson of all of this is that what counts is the good old USA. That is what really is driving markets. All of those foreign distractions are just so much noise. At the end of the day, only the health of the American economy is what matters.
That?s all great news, because our economy is looking pretty darn muscular. Just last week, we saw the Markit August Purchasing Managers Index rocket from 55.8 to 58.0. Weekly jobless claims, the most accurate predictor of true business activity in this cycle, is plumbing seven-year lows. Housing data has just engineered a dramatic turnaround.
It gets better. The upshot of last week?s gathering of Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole, Wyoming is that ?normalization? is the new word du jour. What does this mean to us plebeians?
That the economy is so healthy that the government is actually thinking of raising interest rates sometime in the far future, possibly at the end of 2015, and then only by a little bit. That would bring to an end eight years of zero interest rate policy.
Until then, you have a government issued license to print free money. Buy the dips and sell the rallies, and work the 100-point range. If we continue ascending as we have done, the (SPX) should reach 2,100 by December, which happens to be my long held yearend target.
My bet is this could run all the way until April, when the next round of seasonal weakness kicks in again. If there is a risk of anything, it is that the buyers start to panic over missing the move and the (SPY) melts up, possibly as high as 2,200 by January, and 2,300 by March.
Of course, it?s always useful to engage in what my role model, Albert Einstein, called ?thought experiments? and consider what might cause the wheels to fall off of the bull market. To consider that in depth, please read ?What Could Derail the Coming Golden Age? by clicking here.
So what individual sectors should you focus on now? I hate to sound redundant and repetitive. As you may have noticed, ?boring? is not in my DNA (sending Trade Alerts on my iPhone while hanging by ropes from a cliff in the Swiss Alps during a ferocious storm?).
However, I?ll hark back to my favorite three legs for the economy, technology, energy, and health care. Biotechnology continues to sizzle, as do the car companies. And if bonds are peaking, as I believe, the entire financial sector is a screaming buy here.
One unknown is how the markets will take the Alibaba IPO in September, with an expected $150-$200 billion valuation, the largest in history. If institutions have to unload their existing holdings to make room for the new issues, it could trigger our next 4% correction. If that happens, buy the dip with both hands.
By the way, now that the summer is ending, subscription renewals are coming, so don?t forget to ?re-up? if you want to continue with your 41% average annualized returns.
Hey, the house is starting to shake. I think it?s an earthquake, a big one. Better get this out before the broadband goes down?
Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-25 09:39:332014-08-25 09:39:33My End 2014 Stock Market Forecast
Many commentators are warning of a top, a bubble and Armageddon to come in the stock market. There has not been a 10% correction in the indexes since the debt ceiling crisis three years ago.
But I think that we are just getting started.
Share prices have the rocket fuel for the Dow average to make it to 18,000 by the end of 2014, and possibly 100,000 by 2025. To understand why, you have to focus on major long-term structural changes occurring in the global economy which at this point only a handful for strategists can see, and then, only faintly.
The evidence couldn?t be more undeniable. The major stock indexes have repeatedly broken out to new all time highs in 2014. The more volatile and economically sensitive Russell 2000 small cap index has left it in the big caps dust.
Inflows to equity mutual funds have been the most prolific since 2008. It all paints a picture of a run up (SPX) to and of 2,100 by year-end, which by the way, has been my own forecast all year. Perma bears be damned!
Betting on the Federal Reserve?s fears of a replay of 1937, when premature tightening tipped the US economy into the second leg of the Great Depression, has been a huge winner for me for years now. It means that it is willing to err on the side of over stimulation, by a lot.
With wages growth stagnant for decades, and many commodity prices and precious metals down 30% or more year to date, the Fed certainly has a free pass on the inflation front to do so. Corporate earnings are also helping, consistently surprising to the upside.
However, I think the market is trying to tell us infinitely more than what appeared in yesterday?s headlines, or what flew by in the last tweet or text. There is something deeper going on here beyond the noise of the daily data releases. Asset prices are acting like there is a major structural change underway in the world economy, which so far has remained invisible to all except the market.
Yes, there are a few professionals out there who can see imminent momentous change within their own narrow industries. But no one has yet aggregated all these changes together, so I?ll take a whack at it.
Here are ten theories for you to contemplate.
1) There is more Peace Dividend to Pay - Is it possible that the markets have not yet fully discounted America?s victory in the Cold War? That the payout was interrupted by the dotcom and housing crashes, and that it is now resuming?
Yes, we priced in a chunk with the run up in the Dow average from 2,500 to 11,000 during the 1990?s. But could there be more to go? After all, 22 years since the fall of the Soviet Union and the US still faces no industrial strength enemy, and there are none on the horizon either.
At the very least, this reality should be enough to chop our current defense spending by half, and eliminate most of our budget deficit. Much of the defense establishment agrees with me. They?d rather be spending money on inexpensive, high value, targeted programs, like cyber warfare and drones, rather than the costly, politically inspired, heavy metal weapons systems of old.
2) Obama Care Works ? With the House of Representatives voting to repeal the President?s health care plan for the 50th time, and closing down the government for 16 days in protest, conservative antipathy towards Obamacare couldn?t be more clear. But what if, instead of doubling health care costs as the right has claimed, it drops them by half? What if the plan does add 0.5% to annual GDP and creates 2 million jobs?
This, after all, was the original plan. Health care is expensive in the US because of the lack of competition, and Obamacare delivers that in spades for the first time. Of course there were going to be teething problems. After all, the government is trying to create 50 Amazons overnight at once. It took 20 years for my former Morgan Stanley colleague, Jeff Bezos, to create just one.
The early evidence shows that the competitive health insurance exchanges the plan sets up are delivering price reductions of 30% to 50% in New York and California. I walked into Costco the other day and was offered a plan for $235 a month with an $8,000 deductable, just so I could avoid the penalties for the uninsured. The best offer I previously received from Blue Cross of California was $3,500 a month, typical for an elderly white male like myself.
If this, in turn, solves the health care and Social Security crisis, it will do a lot to wipe out that ?uncertainty? you hear so much about. The predictions of the eventual insolvency of the United States, a perennial Internet conspiracy favorite, also go down the drain.
3) Another Technology Revolution ? Are we on the verge of another great technology breakthrough like the one we saw during the dotcom boom, when PC?s, the Internet, and the World Wide Web simultaneously came together to supercharge corporate earnings for a decade? What if the cost of treating cancer drops from $100,000 to $200, as my friend, Dr. Michio Kaku, believes. What if new Apples and Googles (GOOG) continue to appear out of nowhere?
If you lived in San Francisco and were barraged by venture capital pitches on a daily basis, as I am, you would think this new Golden Age is going to start any minute. There are a thousand innovations percolating out there.
The only question is whether the lead industry will be communications, health care, energy, or all three. Ride your bike south of Market Street someday and see how much research capacity is being built now, the size of a small city. It is awe-inspiring.
4) The Real Cost of Energy Collapses ? We all know about the new 100-year supply of natural gas discovered under our feet that will turn us into Saudi America. But there are 100 additional ways that energy supply is improving and demand is falling.
Conservation will be huge, as will grid and utility modernization. What if Tesla?s (TSLA) Elon Musk is able to deliver a $40,000 electric car with a 300-mile range in three years, as he has promised? This will be a game changer. His track record so far is pretty good.
This is the man so brimming with confidence that he just bought James Bond?s submarine car for $1 million (see the cool modified Lotus in The Spy Who Loved Me). Falling energy costs mean that the profitability of virtually every listed company goes through the roof.
It is likely that if Iran ever does make good on its threat to close the Straights of Hormuz, no one will care. Some 80% of that oil, and soon to be 100%, goes to China, and that will be their problem, not ours.
5) Productivity Accelerates ? By relentlessly introducing new technologies and cutting costs, corporate profitability has soared for the past 30 years. Pessimists now say things can?t get any better. But what if they do?
As I tell guests at my strategy luncheons, this is not a mean reverting data series. Having invested in the machine that took your labor force from 1,000 to 100, what if the next one brings it to 10? Guess which country is about to lose millions of jobs from offshoring and new technology? China. Just talk to any European CEO about their new ?American Strategy.?
6) Interest Rates Stay Low for Another Decade ? If wages stay in check, oil prices fall, and commodity places stay low, then the Fed has absolutely no reason to substantially raise interest rates for another ten years, no matter what the economy does. The next demographic push that creates a worker shortage and higher wages doesn?t start until the early 2020?s.
Sure, the Fed will probably normalize overnight rates back to 2% by next year, as the safety net for the economy is no longer needed. But rates could remain historically very low for quite a long time. This savings immediately drops to the bottom line of any borrower, be they individual, corporate, or government.
In fact, looking at the main causes of the recessions for the last 50 years?a spike in interest rates or a sudden cut off in oil supplies, and absolutely none are visible on the horizon, for now.
7) Shinzo Abe Saves Japan ? The conventional wisdom is that the new government in Japan is resorting to a last desperate act to save their economy that will fail, and that a complete collapse of their over leveraged financial system will result.
But what if Abe gets his necessary reforms through and the country regains its powerhouse status. If Japan?s $6 trillion economy, the world?s third largest, bounces back from a 1% to a 4% GDP growth rate, there will be positive implications for all of us.
8) Europe Gets Its Act Together ? It seems that all we ever hear about from the continent is debt crisis and stagnation and a political system so fragmented that no one can do anything about it. But what if new leadership emerges and takes the initiative to coalesce and solidify Europe?
That would involve creating a single Ministry of Finance, issuing pan Euro bonds, and a European Central Bank with teeth and courage. Their economic problems would disappear and growth would double. As part of my consulting arrangements with governments there, I have been recommending these measures for years, and everyone agrees. All that is missing is the political will to carry them out.
9) The Dollar Stays Strong ? With America?s debt to GDP now over 100% and rising, many analysts believe it is just a matter of time before we see a major crash in the dollar. This is only the continuation of a 220-year-old trend.
What if it goes up instead? Energy independence means we will no longer ship $250 billion a year to the Middle East to pay for oil imports. CEO?s in Europe and Asia are stumbling over each other to find ways to get capital into the US to take advantage of a stronger economy. Higher growth rates mean the feared American deficits start shrinking on their own, with no action from congress whatsoever. This is all long-term dollar positive.
10) Multiples Keep Expanding ? Most strategists believe that the S&P 500 is fairly valued at 1,983 with a price earnings multiple of 15 times, dead in the middle of its historic 9-22 range. But if any of my theories above unfold, then much higher multiples are justified. If they all unfold, then investors wouldn?t hesitate to pay a 25 multiple for American stocks, as their future outlook is so unremittingly positive.
You may say this sounds crazy, and you?d be right. But remember, twice in the last 25 years we have seen market multiples skyrocket to 100. Japanese share valuations reached that nosebleed summit in 1989, and American Dotcom stocks did so in 2000. And they reached those numbers with fundamentals far less substantial than we are facing now. Just take multiples on today?s market up from 15X to 20X, and the Dow should be worth 26,000.
Sure, all of the above represents a pie in the sky best-case scenario. Some, or none, of them may actually play out in the real world. But the ones that do occur will have a super-leveraged effect on each other. The net impact will be US GDP growth easily leaps back from today?s feeble 2% to the virile 4% or more that we grew comfortable with during the fifties, sixties, and eighties.
That growth rate will solve America?s Social Security, Medicare, and deficit problems in fairly short order, without any action by the government.
Needless to say, all of the above is hugely positive for the stock market. It brings forecasts for a Dow 18,000 by the end of 2014, and 100,000 by 2025 out of the realm of fantasy. It kind of makes today?s stock prices look dirt-cheap.
Maybe that?s what the market is trying to tell us, if we only had the patience and the foresight to listen.
This doesn?t mean that you need to rush out and buy more stocks today. Some of these trends will take a decade or more to play out. Better entry points will no doubt present themselves. But the writing is on the wall for higher equity prices, not just in the US, but globally.
I can tell you from the vast expanse of my own 45 years in the prediction business, I have learned one thing. All that is forecast never happens, and all that happens was never forecast.
I?m still waiting for my flying car, although the Tesla S-1 comes close.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/JT-with-Tesla-e1427723768460.jpg227400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-21 01:03:432014-08-21 01:03:43Why US Stocks Are Dirt Cheap
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