While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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DYN Long at $12.55
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APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
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My thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by Irma. Hopefully, you are safe if you were impacted by the storm.
I also want to remind you that today is the 16th anniversary of 9/11/01. That was a sad day in American history and one I hope is never repeated. I will attend one of the many ceremonies across the tri state area.
Now onto today's update.
The week ended with the S & P 500 closing 15.12 points to the downside, at 2,461.43. The range for the week was only 25.42 points. This is less than the weekly average true range of 36.80 points.
And more importantly, the S & P 500 formed an inside bar on its weekly chart. This formation, as you know, is when the price bar has a lower high and a higher low.
In fact, all markets last week formed inside bars.
This usually signals an expansion will follow. And because the the weekly price bar from two weeks ago was strongly bullish, I would expect a continuation of that move.
And we still have an active objective of 2,500 for the S & P 500.
And pre market activity seems to be confirming the bullishness, with the S & P 500 trading almost 12 points to the upside before the open.
Key suppor area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,459 to 2,466 area.
As for the VIX, it continues to be turned back at the 12.50 level. Friday's high was actually 12.60, or 10 cents above the key 12.50 level.
For any bearish move in the market to begin, I would expect the VIX to close above 12.50 for two days.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 15.24
Minor level: 14.84
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 12.12 on Friday, just one cent above the minor 12.11 level.
Two closes under 12.11 and the VIX should test 10.94.
12.50 should continue to offer resistance.
10.16 could offer support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 ***
Major level: 2,437.50 <
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The objective should still be to 2,500. Minor support is at 2.460.90. Based on pre market activity, the S & P 500 should open around 2,470.
Look for 2,468.80 to offer support if the market can open above it.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 ***
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.18
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed at 144.21. 144.14 and 143.75 should be minor support.
A close today above 145.31 and look for the QQQ to continue higher.
IWM:
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.15
Major level: 134.37
The IWM closed at 139.22. Minor support is at 138.67 and 139.06.
140.63 should be the objective.
TLT:
Major level: 129.69
Minor level: 128.91
Minor level: 126.57
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74 <
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed at 129. The major 129.69 level is the key at the moment. If the TLT fails to clear this level, it could drop rapidly.
A violation of 129.69 and the TLT could move up to 131.
128.13 should be minor support.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
The GLD closed at 127.97. The next major level on the upside is 131.25. I would expect strong resistance at that level.
Minor support is at 127.73.
XLE:
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72 **
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 64.40. 65.63 should be the objective.
64.06 and 64.26 could offer minor support. And 66.41 could offer resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.11 **
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 89.17. The major 89.06 level was hit.
Because 89.06 was cleared, I do expect it to continue higher. 88.28 should be support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 165.63, 162.50, 159.38, 156.25, 153.13, and 150.
Support should be at 156.25 and 157.81. Short term trends remain bullish.
I would not expect Apple to drop below 157.81.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BIIB, BIDU, ILMN, WAT, ALGN, AET, ADBE, SAFM, ADSK, CHKP, PLCE, EL, HSY, DPS, CERN, SPLK, BAX, LVS
Bearish Stocks: TAP, ALK, PZZA, THS, DFS, QCOM, AMBA, SAVE, CNK
Be sure to check earnings release dates
