While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 inched higher yesterday. It closed at 2,888.92, up 1.03 points for the day.
And the range was 15.45 points. Compared with the average true range, which is now 19.23 points, the range contracted for the day.
The low for the day came in at 2,879.20. The low came in right around the support area from Tuesday's daily bar, which was in the 2,878 to 2,880 area.
For today, the support area from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,887 to 2,889 area.
I do expect a test of last week's high, which was 2,900.18. Yesterday's high came within 6 points of it.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading 10 points to the upside. Based on this trading, assuming it holds up into the open, the S & P 500 should within 2 points of last week's high.
An open 10 points high projects an open at 2,898.92.
Watch to see if the S & P 500 can take out last week's high. If it can, then it should offer support on a pullback.
A projected open at 2,898.92 would put the S & P 500 above the major 2,890.60 level. This level would also offer support on a pullback.
The next minor resistance level on the upside would be 2,902.83. Two closes above this level and the objective becomes 2,939.50.
Marketwide news are rather slow this week. And earnings are slowing down as well, as we wind down to the end of this quarter.
Watch to see if the market holds support in this area on a pullback.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX dropped yesterday and closed at 13.14. The high for the day was 13.86.
This is right on the technical support level, which is 13.14. A break under this level and I would expect a test of 12.50. The VIX is right at the 13.14 level. Once again, watch this level.
14.06 should offer strong resistance. And 13.67 as well. And minor support should be at 11.72.
SPX:
Major level: 2,939.50
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
With an anticipated open above 2,890.60, look for this level to offer support on a sell off.
The next upside level to watch will be 2,902.83. Two closes above this level and the upside objective becomes 2,939.50.
2,885.70 should offer minor support. On the upside, 2,916.30 could offer some resistance.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is now around 2,878. This level should offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 Hit
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 182.58. The QQQ will still need two closes above 182.81 to test 187.50.
182.03 should offer minor support.
Short term charts remain bullish. Technical support is at 182.65.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 170.62. If the IWM can clear the minor 171.10 level, it should move up to 171.88.
Minor support should be at 170.31. Technical support is at 170.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 118.94. To move lower, the TLT will need two closes under 118.36. The key now will be if the TLT can hold the 118.75 level.
A break under 118.55 and the TLT should head lower.
Resistance should be at 119.14.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD is bouncing from its oversold condition, as expected.
The GLD closed at 114.17. A close today above 113.28 and the GLD should move up to 115.63.
Minor support is now at 114.06. Time to nibble on the some minors.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 73.84. Yesterday's high came within 50 cents of the 75 level.
73.44 should offer minor support. If the XLE can clear 75, I would expect it to continue higher. 73.84 is technical support. Watch this level.
Short term momentum is shifting to the upside.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.94. The FXY closed exactly on the 85.94 level.
At this point, the way that the FXY breaks off the 85.94 will be the next minor move.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88 **
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 221.07. Apple is retesting the upper band on its daily chart. That level is 223.89.
If Apple cannot close above the upper band, I would expect a sell off.
This again shows how shorting when the short term charts are bullish is not a wise move.
Yesterday's high stalled right on the 225 line. 218.75 should be minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: JUM, ULTA, COST, AET, HD, BURL, HON, CLX, ADP, VRSK, KSU, DG, ROST, TSCO, KMX
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, FB, BABA, LRCX, CRI, EXP, SWKS, GILD, AABA, MNST, FSLR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.