While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
XLNX Long September 20th - $110 call for $4.80
XLNX Short September 20th - $115 call for $2.70
FL Long Sept 13th -35.50 Put @ $0.90
FL Short Sept -13th - $33 Put for $0.30
MA Long Sept 20th - $272.50 Call for $5.30
MA Short September 20th - $277.50 Call for $3.05
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The market continued the bounce from the recent pivot low on August 26th.
It closed out the day 8.64 points higher. The S & P 500 closed at 3,009.57.
The range for the day was a modest 19.82 points. Compared with the daily average true range, which is 34 points, you can see the market is still below the average.
And it has been for been trading under the average range for about the last two weeks.
With these contractions, I do expect an expansion. The only question is when.
With all the short term charts in bullish trends, the odd favor an expansion to the upside.
The close at 3,009.57 puts it above the minor 3,007.85 level.
As you know, a close above this level today would imply a move higher.
And pre open, the S & P is trading almost 10 points higher.
So, watch for support around the minor 3,007.85 level. And watch to see if the S & P clears yesterday's high of 3,020.74. If it can, look for price to continue higher.
This week's weekly price bar has a range so far of 63.73 points. And the average is 80.54. The market would have to move up about 17 points from the high to hit the weekly average.
This would certainly not be out of the question because the daily average true range is greater than that.
The midpoint of the weekly price bar so far is 2,989 and a close above this level would be bullish.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
The VIX closed at 14.18 yesterday. This was the second close under 14.85. This now suggests that the VIX should drop to 12.50.
14.06 is a minor support level. If the VIX breaks under it, it should head lower. 15.63 should continue to be minor resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
As you know, a close today above 3,007.85 and the S & P should head up to 3,125.
Minor support should be at 3,002.90. And support should be at the 3,007.85 level.
3,027.30 could offer resistance on the upside.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 193.23. 193.75 should be the objective.
191 should offer technical support. And the minor resistance level of 192.19 should be support.
192.97 should offer minor support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 157.04. The IWM took out the 156.25 level. And it should now be support.
Two closes above 157.81 and the IWM should head up to 162.50.
156.25 should offer support. And the 153 should offer technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 Hit
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The TLT closed at 139.52. This was the first close under 139.85. This now suggests that if the TLT closes under 139.85 today, it should drop to 137.50.
I would expect support at the 137.50 level. If it cannot hold, it would suggest an even deeper pullback.
140.63 is minor resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97 **
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 141.32. The GLD did take out the major 140.62 level which managed to close above it.
Now it will need two closes above 141.41 to head up to 143.75.
140.63 should now offer support. And if the GLD opens above 141.41, look for support there.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 60.60. The objective for the XLE should be up to 62.50. But, the XLE will need to hold 60.16 to move higher.
And 59.38 should also offer support on the downside.
The 60 minute chart has moved into an uptrend. Buying against support should be the most viable option.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38 **
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Apple closed at 223.09. Apple took out the 225 target. It hit a high of 226.42 before heading lower.
221.88 should offer support.
With both the 30 & 60 minute charts in uptrends, continue to buy oversold conditions.
As I said yesterday, Apple is overbought in the short term. A pullback to the 208 area would be a great place to get long.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, COST, FLT, MA, NTES, BDX, MLM, HD, LRCX, CME, AAPL, BABA, GPN, CB, KLAC, VMC, DLR
Bearish Stocks: HUM, NFLX, JAZZ, ALXN, FANG, CNC, MDP, YELP, ALKS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.