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As we wind down to close out this week, the S & P 500 managed to close to higher for the day. It closed yesterday at 2,904.18. The close was 15.26 points higher than Wednesday's close.
Having said that, the range for the day was only 10.27 points, as compared with the average true range of 19.13 points.
This shows that break out was not very strong and quite tepid actually.
But, the market did as we expected. And that is it took out last week's high ... and closed above the minor 2,902.83 level.
With a bearish weekly price bar, we were looking for a violation of last week's low before the high. And certainly a retest of the last week's low.
On Tuesday, the market got as low as 2,866.78, about 3 points above last week's low.
After failing to take out the low, the expectation is that it would make a run to test the high. And yesterday, it managed to take it out by almost 7 points.
I would expect support now at last week's high, which was 2,906.76.
For today, the support area from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,900 to 2,901 area.
Of course the other major event event today would be if the S & P 500 can close above 2,902.83 level for the second day.
If it can, then this would set up a scenarion where the upside objective should be to 2,939.50.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3 points higher.
Watch to see if the market holds support in this area on a pullback.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX dropped yesterday and closed at 12.34. This puts the VIX back under the major 12.50 level.
The VIX broke under the technical support level we were looking at on this week's webinar. I had discussed this Wednesday and how if the VIX broke under it, expect it to move lower and the markets higher.
Now the key will be the test of 11.72. At this point, it should be support. But, if the VIX takes it out, expect it to head lower.
SPX:
Major level: 2,939.50
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
As mentioned above, the key for today is if the S & P 500 can close above 2,902.83. If it can, the target becomes 2,939.50.
But, there is resistance at 2,927.20.
Support should now be at 2,890. And minor support is at 2,896.70.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is now around 2,890. This level should offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 184.53. A close today above 182.18 and the QQQ should test 187.50.
182.81 should offer minor support. And short term support is at 183.59.
Short term charts remain bullish. Technical support is at 182.89.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 170.66. If the IWM can clear the minor 171.10 level, it should move up to 171.88.
Minor support should be at 170.31. Technical support is at 169.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 119.12. To move higher now, the TLT will need two closes above 119.53.
118.75 should offer support.
Resistance should be at 119.14. Clearing this level, the TLT should head higher.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD is bouncing from its oversold condition, as expected.
The GLD closed at 113.76. Biased for a move up to 115.63. But, the GDX has still not closed back inside the lower band.
Wait for this to happen before nibbling on the miners. Unless your selling covered calls with a hedge.
Minor support is now at 112.50.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 73.87. Yesterday's high came within $1 of the 75 level.
73.44 should offer minor support. If the XLE can clear 75, I would expect it to continue higher. 73.93 is technical support. Watch this level. The XLE needs to clear 73.93 to head higher.
Short term momentum is shifting to the upside.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.40. The FXY broke and closed under the 85.94 level.
A close today under 85.75 and the FXY should test 85.16. Expect his test.
A break under 85.35 and the FXY should head lower.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88 **
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 226.41. Apple managed to close back above the upper band, which is 224.72.
Apple continues to show unusual strength.
223.44 is short term support. And 225, as well.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: JUM, ULTA, COST, AET, HD, BURL, HON, CLX, ADP, VRSK, KSU, DG, ROST, TSCO, KMX
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, FB, BABA, LRCX, CRI, EXP, SWKS, GILD, AABA, MNST, FSLR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.