While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
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FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
XLNX Long September 20th - $110 call for $4.80
XLNX Short September 20th - $115 call for $2.70
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Today closes out the week of September 20th. And quite frankly, the market has really done nothing this week.
I suspect that is really not true. Most likely, a lot of investors got churned this week.
This is because last week closed at 3,012.21 and yesterday closed at 3,006.79, or within 6 points of that close.
And we have had four days this week that were below the daily average true range.
Only one day was close and that was Wednesday when the Fed made their announcement. And of course, there was extreme volatility on that day.
And let's not forget that for the last three days, the S & P has closed just under the minor 3,007.85 level. It's almost like every time the market dropped under 3,007, buy it for a run back up.
So, what does this all mean?
Probably, it would have been a good week to extend your summer vacation.
Yesterday, the S & P closed at 3,006.70, virtually flat for the day.
And the range was 18.83. Once again, this was a contraction. The range was 64% of the daily average true range.
3,008 is the support area from yesterday's daily bar. And pre open, the S & P is trading about 6 points higher. This projects to an open around 3,012. So, watch the 3,008 area on a retest.
This week's weekly price bar is also shaping up for a contraction.
The range through yesterday is only 43.42 points. This is about 56% of the weekly average true range, which is 78 points.
The midpont so far is 3,000, which should also be a level to watch on a pullback.
Bias is still to the upside, with the short term intra day charts bullish.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
The VIX closed at 14.03 yesterday. The VIX should drop to 12.50. That is still the objective.
The minor 14.85 level should be resistance. And minor resistance is at 14.45.
Support should be at 13.28. A break under 13.28 and the VIX should continue to the 12.50 target.
The VIX got as low as 13.31 or 3 cents above the support level I mentioned yesterday.
Watch to see if the VIX takes out 13.28.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,006.79. Once again, just under the minor 3,007.85 level.
Watch to see if the S & P can clear this level today.
Minor support is at 3,002.90. And at 2,998.
Short term trends remain bullish. Look for technical support around 3,004.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 192.84. The QQQ did take out 193.75, hitting a high of 194.04.
191.41 is minor support. And at 192.58.
Technical support should be around 192.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 155.76. The IWM will still need two closes above 157.81 to test 162.50.
The IWM is overbought in the short term. Look for support around 151.56.
And 154.69 should be support.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 140.04. The TLT did test 140.63, hitting a high of 140.99.
If the TLT cannot clear 141.41, look for a pullback.
Technical resistance is around 142. And minor support should be at 139.45.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 141.28. 140.63 should be support.
Short term charts are both bearish, so momentum has shifted to the downside.
The 143 area should be technical resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72 **
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 61.79. The 61.72 level is a minor support level. It will need two closes under this level to head lower.
Two closes above 63.28 and the XLE should test 65.63. And on the downside, the key level is 61.72.
61.72 is a minor support level. And technical support is around 59.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00 <
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Apple closed at 220.96. The target is to 225. And minor support is at 221.88.
218.75 should be a short tem support level. And technical support is around 214.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, GOOGL, MLM, ASML, LRCX, HD, AAPL, BABA, RH, DE, CMI, ITW, UTX, ZBH
Bearish Stocks: REGN, HUM, SQ, GDOT
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
