While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
FEYE Long at $16.69
Total Premium Collected - $1.26
Short Sept 28th - $17 Call @ $0.33
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Perhaps you were skeptical when I called for the next upside objective for the S & P 500 to be 2,939.50.
But here we are ... now within five points of that objective.
Yesterday's high came in at 2,934.80, which puts the objective well within reach.
Once again I find myself not shocked that the target is almost hit, but with how fast we have moved up to it.
On September 7th, the S & P 500 stopped at 2,864. And here we are 10 days later at almost the 2,939.50 target.
But, for those you who have need reading this update for a while, you no doubt have come to realize that when upside objectives get confirmed, they usually get hit. It may not happen immediately, but it does usually happen.
Once again this confirms my mantra of not shorting this market, no matter how attractive that appears. Hopefully, I have at least convinced you that is not the strategy to use at the moment.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed at 2,930.75, up 22.80 points on the day.
The support level from yesterday's daily bar should be in the 2,925 to 2,927 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading relatively flat. So, watch the area above if the market does pullback.
This projects to an open around 2,916.
Support should be around yesterday's high, which was 2,912.36 and the close, which was 2,908.
Watch to see if the market holds support in this area on a pullback.
If we scale back to the weekly price bar, it has a low of 2,896.16 and a high of 2,934.80. The range through Thursday was 38.64 points. With an average true range of 52 points, the S & P 500 could move up to 2,948 and the move would be within the average.
In fact, watch to see if the S & P 500 moves up to the 2,948 area today.
On a final note, on John's webinar on Wednesday, I mentioned how the pot stocks were in a mania.
Yesterday, TLRY, one of the leaders, had a $150 swing on two days. This was one half of the $300 price that TLRY hit on Wednesday.
This is a sure sign that a topping pattern is setting up.
The problem for us that the options are really thin and way overpriced, so taking advantage of these type of swings are almost impossible.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 11.89. The low yesterday came in at 11.31, or 31 cents under the 11.72 level we were looking for.
But, yesterday we got a divergence between the VIX and the market.
Both close to the upside. With the S & P 500 almost at its objective and the VIX & S & P divergence, we should now be on alert that profit taking could set in.
Watch to see if the VIX can hold 11.72. 13.28 should be resistance.
SPX:
Major level: 2,939.50 <<
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83 **
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
The upside objective remains to 2,939.50. 2,954.10 could offer some resistance on the upside.
Minor support is at 2,905.30.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is now around 2,900. This level should offer support.
But, the S & P 500 is against the upper band on the 30 minute chart. This indicates it is overbought.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 184.72. The objective should be up to187.50, but the QQQ needs to clear 182.81. There is also technical resistance at 183, so this area will be key today.
Minor support is now at 183.59 and 183.20.
The short term 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend, so momentum has shifted lower. The 30 minute chart is trying to move back into an uptrend.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 171.22. With the IWM holding the minor 169.53 level, look for a bounce off this level. In fact, this level did hold as support.
171.22 is technical resistance. If the IWM can clear this level, it should head higher.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT reversed to close at 117.15. We have been looking for a bounce and if the TLT can close around yesterday's close, we should get the bounce.
116.41 is a short term support level. Watch this level today.
118.75 is a short term support resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 114.27. 114.06 should be minor support level now.
Resistance should be at 115.63.
The gold miner index (GDX) did close again above the lower band, which is 18.34. Wait for a few days to close above 18.34 before initiating any gold miner long positions.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 75.12. The XLE managed to close again above the 75 level.
The XLE needs to clear 75.78 to move higher.
75 should offer minor support.
Short term momentum has shifted to the upside. The 30 minute chart just crossed into an uptrend. Technically support should be at 74.28.
Also, the 60 minute chart just crossed into an uptrend.
The next pullback should be opportunity to buy.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.04. The FXY closed back under the major 85.16 level. If the FXY can hold 85.16, it should bounce.
84.77 should offer short term support. A break under this level and expect the FXY to head lower.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88 **
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 220.03. 218.75 should be short term support.
Biased for a move up to 225. Technical resistance is at 222.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, ALGN, NFLX, HUM, NVDA, ADBE, BA, PANW, QQQ, AET, HON, CRM, UNP, GRUB, ADSK, CHKP
Bearish Stocks: GS, MLM, LRCX, BLUE, CRI,WLK, CELG, FSLR, TRP, BIG, CLVS, ACM, X, HUN, CARS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.