While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
FEYE Long at $16.69
Total Premium Collected - $1.26
Short Sept 28th - $17 Call @ $0.33
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Objective hit ... again!
It seems like every time we have have a new upside objective, it ultimately gets hit. And this time is no exception.
With two closes above 2,902,83, the objective became 2,939.50.
And Friday's high hit 2,940.91 or about 1 point above the target.
Actually, the S & P 500 confirmed the target twice. This is rather unusual. It usually happens only once.
After hitting the target, the market sold off to close at 2,929.67. This resulted in a close percentage of 19%.
This tells us there is almost an 80% chance that Friday's low should be violated before the high.
Friday's low was 2,927.11. So, this is a level to watch today.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 24.69 points higher.
And for the week, the range was 52.33. The weekly average true range is 54.75 points. The range for the week almost hit the average.
And the weekly close percentage was 79.5%. This means we have about an 80% chance of last week's high being violated before the low.
With the low daily close percentage, we should expect the week to start out weak and bottom out and make a run to last week's high.
The low for the week could come in tomorrow.
Support from last week's weekly price bar should be in the 2,913 to 2,917 area.
Friday's daily price bar has the support area at 2,934 to 2,938.
As a follow up to what I wrote on Friday about manias, I was going to write about how to spot them today. But, I decided it would be easier to show on it on this week's webinar. It may be more instructive.
Watch the levels today.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 11.68. This was just 4 cents under the 11.72 level we were looking for. The key for today will be to see if the VIX can close under it for two days.
If it does, a drop to the 9.38 level is possible.
If it recoups 11.72, look for resistance at 12.50 and 13.28.
With the S & P 500 hitting our target and the VIX back at all time lows, we need to be mindful that profit taking could set in.
SPX:
Major level: 2,988.30 XXX
Minor level: 2,976.10
Minor level: 2.951.70
Major level: 2,939.50 <<
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
With the upside objective of 2,939.50 hit, this sets up a scenario where support should be at 2,927.28.
And by taking out 2,890.60, it now assures us the market should make a rally, even if the market sells off.
On the upside, the key level is 2,988.30. This is a level that I do feel could be difficult to take out on the first attempt. At least this is a level that we will want to watch closely.
Minor support is also at 2,921.10. If the S & P breaks under that level, strong support should be at 2,910.15.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is now around 2,900. This level should offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 183.71. The 187.50 level is key for the QQQ. It it can clear this level, I would expect the QQQ to head higher.
A failure here and the QQQ could retest 175.
Minor support is now at 182.03.
The short term 30 minute chart remains in a downtrend, so momentum continues to be to the downside.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 170.40. A close today under 171.10 and the IWM could retest 168.75.
169.92 is minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT reversed to close at 117.10. The TLT continues to consolidate.
The TLT needs to close above 117.19 to bounce here. 116.41 should be support.
118.75 is a short term support resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 113.49. It should test 112.50.
Resistance should be at 113.67. 111.72 should be support.
The GDX is retesting the lower band on the daily. If it holds, a reversal could be coming.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 75.10. The XLE managed to close again above the 75 level again.
The XLE needs to clear 75.78 to move higher.
74.80 should offer minor support.
Both short term charts are in uptrends. The XLE should head higher.
The next pullback should be opportunity to buy.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 84.93. The FXY closed back under the major 85.16 level. At this point, a test of 84.38 is the most likely move.
84.38 is a key support level.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 223.44
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Apple closed at 217.60. With a close under 217.19, a drop to 212.50 is likely.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend. Momentum is to the downside now.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, ANTM, BDX, FLT, MA, HD, AET, AMGN, CME, HON, EW, UNP, CLX, RACE, ZBH, ALXN, NKE, CVS
Bearish Stocks: MLM, BLUE, SAFM, MAN, R, PRGO, TPX, LEN, MD, GIS, BRKR, JD, HAIN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.