While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
FEYE Long at $16.69
Total Premium Collected - $1.26
Short Sept 28th - $17 Call @ $0.33
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The week is setting up as we expect. Weakness to start, and then look for support to come in and then make a run at the high of last week's weekly price bar.
This of course, is after hitting the upside in the S & P 500 we were calling for.
As you know, it is not unusual to see some profit taking after a major level is hit ... or penetrated.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed to the downside 10.30 points. It closed at 2,919.37.
However, it got as low as 2,912.63 before bouncing back to close higher.
The low was just under the low end of the weekly support level, which is 2,913.
And with a 60% close percentage for the day, the odds are slightly better that yesterday's high will be violated before the low.
If yesterday's high can be taken out, it is possible the low for the week will be in.
We should know today. If the S & P 500 can reclaim the 2,927.28 level, it would also help to confirm the weekly low is in. Watch to see how the market reacts at this level on a rally.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,918 to 2,921 area.
And yesterday closed right in the middle of the area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,925. Watch the daily support level on a pullback.
The big news event this week will be the Fed announcement at 2:00 PM EST tomorrow regarding interest rates. The general consensus is for a rate hike.
Watch the levels today.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 12.20. This of course is above the minor 11.72 level, but it was still below the major 12.50 level.
At this point, the VIX would still need two closes under 11.72 to drop to 9.38.
12.50 and 12.89 should still offer resistance. And the minor 14.06 level would be about highest I would feel the VIX would move on any rally.
SPX:
Major level: 2,988.30 XXX
Minor level: 2,976.10
Minor level: 2.951.70
Major level: 2,939.50 <<
Minor level: 2,927.28 **
Minor level: 2,902.83
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
The minor 2,919.90 level should be short term support and the S & P 500 closed just under it yesterday.
With a projected gap higher this morning, look for support at the 2,919.90 level on a pullback.
Minor support is also at 2,907.70. And on the upside, look for the 2,927.28 to be challenged on a rally.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is now around 2,900. This level should offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 183.89. The 187.50 level is key for the QQQ. It can clear this level, I would expect the QQQ to head higher.
A close today above 182.81 and the 187.50 should be challenged.
A failure here and the QQQ could retest 175.
Minor support is now at 182.81.
The short term 30 minute chart remains in a downtrend, so momentum continues to be to the downside. But, technical support is at 183.47.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53 <
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 169.77. 169.53 should be short term support and 168.75 should offer major support.
Biased now for a test of 171.88.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80 **
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT reversed to close at 116.80, closing right on the downside level. A close under 116.80 and the TLT should test 115.63.
With an anticipated rate hike tomorrow, the TLT should be volatile.
116.41 should be minor support.
118.75 is a short term support resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 113.47. 113.67 is minor resistance and the GLD would need to clear this level to move higher.
Resistance should be at 113.67. 111.72 should be support.
The GDX is retesting the lower band on the daily. If it holds, a reversal could be coming.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 76.20. This was the first close above the minor 75.78 level. A close today above it and the XLE should test 78.13.
75.78 should offer support now. And minor resistance is at 77.34.
Both short term charts are in uptrends. The XLE should head higher.
The next pullback should be opportunity to buy.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.97 **
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 84.79. A close today under the 84.97 level and the FXY should drop to 84.38.
84.38 is a key support level. And 84.96 is a minor resistance level.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 223.44
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Apple closed at 220.79. Apple got under 217.19, and reversed to close higher. A retest of the upper band, which is 228.63 is likely.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend. Momentum is to the downside now. And technical resistance is at 222.32. Apple will need to clear this level to move higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, ANTM, BDX, FLT, MA, HD, AET, AMGN, CME, HON, EW, UNP, CLX, RACE, ZBH, ALXN, NKE, CVS
Bearish Stocks: MLM, BLUE, SAFM, MAN, R, PRGO, TPX, LEN, MD, GIS, BRKR, JD, HAIN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.