While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
FEYE Long at $16.69
Total Premium Collected - $1.26
Short Sept 28th - $17 Call @ $0.33
CELG Long Nov $90 Call at $3.20
CELG Short Nov $96 Call at $1.47
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Today not only closes out the month of September, but it is also my anniversary.
And yesterday the market got the bounce in the morning, as we expected.
The reason for the bounce was quite simple. The S & P 500 had fallen under the lower extreme bollinger band on the short term 3 minute chart. From Wednesday's low at 2,903.28 to yesterday's high at 2,927.22, the S & P 500 rallied almost 24 points in a day.
This is why I like to look at the extreme bands. They instantly tell you if the market is oversold or overbought.
And after the sell-off from the Fed announcement on Wednesday, the tool measured the market as oversold.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,914. It closed to the upside 8.03 points.
At this point, the weekly chart is shaping up for an inside bar. This means that neither last week's high or low has been violated.
As a reminder, last weeks high was 2,940.91 and the low was 2,886.16.
The midpoint was 2,913.54 and yesterday closed right at it.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 8 points lower. Watch the midpoint on a rally.
And for the month, the S & P 500 has a range of only 77 points. The month should most likely have a contraction because the monthly average true range is 120 points. This would suggest that an expansion should follow.
The key price level to watch from the potential September price bar is 2,902.52.
That is the midpoint of the monthly bar at this point.
With a projected open about 8 points lower, the market should open about 4 points above the 2,902.52 level. Watch this level on a sell-off.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,913 to 2,918 area.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 12.41. Yesterday closed below the 12.50 level. The VIX closed right on the minor 12.89 level.
At this point, 14.06 should be resistance. If the VIX can close above 14.06 for two days, it would tell us that it should head higher.
12.50 and 12.11 should be support.
SPX:
Major level: 2,988.30 XXX
Minor level: 2,976.10
Minor level: 2.951.70
Major level: 2,939.50 <<
Minor level: 2,927.28 **
Minor level: 2,902.83
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor resistance should be at 2,919.90. And watch to see if the S & P 500 can hold the 2,907.70 level.
If it fails at 2,907.70, a drop to 2,895.50 should be the next move.
The short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts still remain bullish. Technical support is now around 2,902.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 185.83. Watch the minor 183.59 level. If the QQQ breaks under the level, it could drop to 181.
184.38 should provide short term support.
The short term 30 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. Technical support is at 183.46.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10 **
Minor level: 169.53 <
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 168.04. The key short term level is 167.97. If the IWM breaks under this level, a drop to 165 should be the next move.
Like the S & P 500, the IWM managed to bounce from its oversold short term condition.
169.53 should offer support.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58 **
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 117.58. It closed right on the upside level. To move up to 118.75, the TLT will need two closes above 117.58.
At this point, 117.19 should be short term support. And if it can clear 117.58, I would expect it to head higher.
Short term charts remain bearish. Technical resistance is at 119.50.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
The GLD closed at 112.05, closing just under the major 112.50 level again.
111.72 is a minor level. If the GLD breaks under that level, expect it to go lower.
Resistance should be at 113.28, and at 112.50.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 75.95. The objective should still be to 78.13.
75 should offer support. And minor support should be at 75.78.
Both short term charts are in uptrends. Technical support is at 74.
FXY:
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 84.18 **
The FXY reversed and closed at 84.33. Yesterday's low was 84.54 or 16 cents above the 84.38 level.
The FXY broke under the major 84.38 level. The next key level is 84.18. Two closes under this level and the FXY should drop to 84.59.
Short term charts remain bearish.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00 <
Minor level: 223.44
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Apple closed at 224.95. Apple hit the 225 level. 228.13 should be minor resistance.
And 223.44 should be support.
The 30 minute chart is still in a downtrend. Apple did clear the midband on the 30 minute chart. The midband is 222.65 and should offer support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, ANTM, BDX, FLT, MA, HD, AET, AMGN, CME, HON, EW, UNP, CLX, RACE, ZBH, ALXN, NKE, CVS
Bearish Stocks: MLM, BLUE, SAFM, MAN, R, PRGO, TPX, LEN, MD, GIS, BRKR, JD, HAIN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.