While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
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The market contracted yesterday and closed slightly to the downside. For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,465.10, off .44 points on the day.
The low for the day was 2,460.29, right around the upper range of the weekly support area. As I mentioned yesterday, I would expect 2,461 to offer support.
With a range of only 8.33 points, the contraction was not quite one half the average true range (ATR). The ATR is now 15.66.
However, it was another contraction and more importantly, yesterday formed a double inside day.
With this price formation, you generally expect a range expansion once the high or low of the inside day is violated.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is off slightly off 6 points, so the market should open around 2,459, which puts the market back to within the weekly support area of 2,454 to 2,461.
The VIX continues to trade under 12.50, closing yesterday at 11.58. I still expect 12.50 to offer resistance.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 15.24
Minor level: 14.84
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94
Watch for resistance as 12.50. If the VIX clears 12.50, I would expect it to head higher.
On the downside, watch the 10.94 level. I would expect support at that level.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 ***
Major level: 2,437.50 <
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The objective should still be to 2,500. 2,453.10 should offer support. On the upside, watch the 2,468.80 level. This level has offered resistance the past two days.
A break out or break down could result is a large range day.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 ***
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.18
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed at 145.47. 144.53 and 145.31 should be minor support.
A close today above 145.31 implies a run up to 150.
IWM:
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.15
Major level: 134.37
The IWM closed at 139.11. Support should still be at 137.50.
139.06 and 138.28 should be minor support. 140.63 should be the objective.
TLT:
Major level: 129.69
Minor level: 128.91
Minor level: 126.57
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74 <
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT reversed and closed at 129.28. The high for the day came within 12 cents of the major 129.69 level.
128.52 should be minor support.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
The GLD closed exactly on the major 128.13 level. The next major level on the upside is 131.25. I would expect strong resistance at that level.
Minor support is at 126.56.
XLE:
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72 **
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.09. The XLE continues with its test of 65.63.
65.63 is a key level. It needs to clear 65.63 to head higher. A failure at that level and it should head considerably lower.
64.84 and 64.45 could offer minor support. And 66.41 could offer resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.11 **
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 88.59. The FXY is now within 50 cents of the major 89.06 level.
If the FXY can clear 89.06, it should continue higher. A failure here and it will consolidate for a while before the next move emerges.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 165.63, 162.50, 159.38, 156.25, 153.13, and 150.
Apple is approaching short term support levels. I would expect the 159.38 to 161 area to offer support.
I would not expect Apple to drop below 157.81.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BIIB, HUM, ILMN, CI, WAT, RTN, LRCX, AAPL, VRTX, MCD, ASML, ADBE, BLUE, RCL, KMB, EA, CAT, ADSK, WDAY, RHT
Bearish Stocks: OMC, REG, PB, ALSK, BIG, APC, SAVE, EAT, GCO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
