While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
XLNX Long September 20th - $110 call for $4.80
XLNX Short September 20th - $115 call for $2.70
FL Long Sept 13th -35.50 Put @ $0.90
FL Short Sept -13th - $33 Put for $0.30
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Friday, the S & P 500 closed slightly higher. It closed at 2,978.71, up 2.71 points on the day.
After a strong bull week, the market closed out with a narrow range contraction.
This is not usual because, as I pointed out Friday, the S & P had already exceeded the weekly average true range.
So, to see quiet trading Friday was not a surprise at all.
Friday's range was only 12.52 points and for the day, the S & P closed at 52% of the daily bar. This is a relatively neutral reading, which would suggest that Friday's close of 2,978.71 should offer support or resistance depending upon where the market is trading.
The weekly price bar was strongly bullish. The week ended closing 52.26 points higher. And the weekly range ended up at 94.01 points. This exceeded the weekly average true range by about 12 points.
The weekly average true range reads 81.84 points. And the weekly price bar closed at 92.4% of the range of the bar.
This does suggest that the high of 2,985.86 should be violated before the low of 2,891.85.
And the support area from last week's weekly bar is in the 2,939 to 2,944 area.
The bullish price action comes as the short term 60 minute chart is still bearish.
Though it is closer to moving into an uptrend, it is still bearish.
Should the 60 minute chart cross into an uptrend, this would suggest that the market should head higher.
This is, of course, something that I will continue to monitor.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 8 points higher. Assuming this trading holds through the open, the market should open right around Friday's high.
If the market does pull back, Friday's close should offer support.
Earnings have slowed down. The companies of note reporting this week are CASY, which reports this afternoon. And the RH which reports tomorrow afternoon.
Finally, AVGO reports Thursday after the close.
This Wednesday is our regularly scheduled webinar. If you would like me to review any charts, please email at davismdt@gmail.com and I will be happy to try and add the charts to the webinar.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.97 **
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 15.03 on Friday. This was a further drop of 7.62%.
And it closed under the 15.63 level we were looking for.
The next level lower is 14.85. Two closes under this level and the VIX should be back to testing the major 12.50 level.
14.06 is a minor support level. If the VIX breaks under it, it should head lower. 16.41 is minor resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P 500 closed at 2,978.71. This was just above the minor 2,978.50 level. At this point, 2,968.80 and 2,978.50 should offer support.
3,007.85 should be the next level to watch on the upside. Two closes above this level and the S & P should move up to 3,125.
2,954 should also offer support. And the 2,950 area should offer technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 191.59. The objective should still be to 193.75.
190.93 should be minor support.
189 should offer technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 149.90. The TLT cleared the 150 level again. It hit a high of 151.23.
It will need to close above 151.56 to head higher.
148.44 should offer support. And technical support is at 148.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The TLT closed at 145.79. The TLT broke under the upper band, which is 147.30. This should now be resistance. And the TLT is retesting it now.
A close today above 145.31 and the TLT should test 150, which would suggest a break above the upper band again.
145.31 should be a support level.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97 **
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 141.92. The GLD continues to drop from the upper band on the daily chart. That level is now 145.45.
A close today under 142.97 and the GLD should drop to 140.
139.06 is minor support.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25 <
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.03. The XLE needs to clear 59.38 to head higher.
And technical resistance is right at 59.34. This is right around the major resistance level. So, if the XLE can clear this level, it should head higher.
58.20 should offer support on the downside.
The short term 30 minute chart has turned bullish, indicating momentum is shifting to the upside.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38 **
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Apple closed at 213.26. Apple took out the 212.50 objective we have been calling for. 212.50 should be support.
The next minor level is 215.63. If the Apple can clear this level, watch for a move up to 218.75.
With both the 30 & 60 Minute charts in uptrends, continue to buy oversold conditions.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, COST, FLT, MA, NTES, BDX, MLM, HD, LRCX, CME, AAPL, BABA, GPN, CB, KLAC, VMC, DLR
Bearish Stocks: HUM, NFLX, JAZZ, ALXN, FANG, CNC, MDP, YELP, ALKS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
