Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 27, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON'T NAP ON ROKU)
(MSFT), (ROKU), (AMZN), (AAPL), (CBS), (DIS), (NFLX), (TWTR), (SQ), (FB)
Posts
Unique assets stand the test of time.
In an era of unprecedented disruption, unique assets' strength begets strength.
This is one of the big reasons the vaunted FANG group has carved out power gains in the business landscape bestowed with a largesse dwarfing any other sector.
As the FANGs trot out to imminent profitability by supercharging massive scale, the emerging tech environment gives food for thought.
These up-and-coming companies fight tooth and nail to elevate themselves to FANG status because of the ease of operating in a duopoly or an outright monopoly.
Microsoft (MSFT) is the closest substitute to an outright FANG. In many ways CEO Satya Nadella has positioned himself better than Facebook (FB) and Apple.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has pounced on the newest kids on the block offering subscribers buy, sell or hold recommendations zoning in on the best first and second tier companies in tech land.
The top echelon of the second tier is led by no other than Jack Dorsey and both of his companies, Square (SQ) and Twitter (TWTR), offer idiosyncratic services that cannot be found elsewhere.
I have devoted stories to Dorsey gushing about his ability to build a company and rightly so.
Another solid second tier tech company bringing uniqueness to the table is Roku (ROKU), which I have talked about in glowing terms before when I wrote, "How Roku is Winning the Streaming Wars."
To read the archived story, please click here.
Roku is a cluster of in-house, manufactured, online streaming devices offering OTT (over-the-top) content in the form of channels on its proprietary platform.
The word Roku means six in Japanese and it was chosen because Roku was the sixth company established by founder and CEO Anthony Wood commencing in 2002.
Cord-cutting has been a much-covered topic in my newsletters and this generational shift in consumer behavior benefits Roku the most.
In 2017, 25% of televisions purchased were Roku TVs. According to several reports, more than half of all streaming players purchased last year were Roku players.
This would explain how Roku has shifted its income streams from the physical box itself to selling ads and licensing agreements.
Yes, Roku earns the lion's share of its profits similar to the rogue ad seller Facebook.
Roku does not actually sell anything physical except the box you need to operate Roku, which earned Roku a fixed $30 per unit.
The box serves as the gateway to its platform where it sells ads. Migrating to higher caliber digital businesses like selling ads will stunt the hardware revenue part of its business.
That is all part of the plan.
A new survey conducted regarding fresh cord-cutters demonstrated that out of 2,000 cord-cutters questioned, 70% already had a Roku player and felt no need to pay for cable TV anymore.
Second on the list was Amazon Fire TV at 34%, and Apple TV (AAPL) came in third at 10%.
The dominant position has forced content creators to pander toward Roku TV's platform because third-party content creators do not want to miss out on a huge swath of cord-cutter millennials who are entering into their peak spending years and spend most of their time parked on Roku's platform.
Surveys have shown that millennials do not need a million different streaming services.
They only choose one or two for main functionality, and in most cases, these are Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN).
Roku allows both these services to be integrated onto its platform. Cord-cutters can supplement their Netflix and Amazon Prime Video binge with a few more a la carte channels to their preference depending on points of interest.
In general, this is how millennials are setting up their entertainment routine, and all roads don't lead through Rome, but Roku.
If the massive scale continues at this pace, 2020 could be the year profitability explodes through the roof.
The next 18 months should give way to parabolic spikes, followed by consolidation to higher lows in the share price.
When I recommended this stock, its shares were trading at a tad above $32 on April 18, 2018, and immediately spiked to $47 on June 20, 2018.
The tariff sell-off hit most second tier tech companies flush in the mouth. The 5% and occasional 7% intraday sell-offs churn the stomach like Mumbai street food during the height of the Indian summer.
That is part and parcel of dipping your toe into these rising stars.
The move ups are parabolic, but the sell-offs make your hair fall out.
Well, glue your locks back onto your scalp, because we have reached another entry point.
Roku is now trading back down in the low $40 range, and I would bet my retirement fund that Roku will end the year above $50.
This unique company is expected to grow its subscriber base by at least 20% annually, and in five years total subscribers will eclipse 45 million users.
Reinforcing its industry leadership, traditional media companies such as Disney and CBS do not have built-in streaming viewership that comes close to touching Roku.
This has forced these traditional media giants to push their content through Roku or lose a huge amount of the 18 to 34 age bracket for which advertisers yearn.
These traditional players are armed with robust ad budgets, and a good bulk of it is allocated to Roku among others.
For each additional a la carte channel users sign up for on Roku, the company earns a sales commission.
As a tidal wave of niche streaming channels plan to hit the market, the first place they will look to is Roku's platform and this trend will only become stronger with time.
A prominent example was Sling TV, which showed up at Roku's front door first before circling around the rest of the neighborhood.
The runway for Roku's three main businesses of video ads, display ads, and licensing with streaming partners, is long and robust.
The one caveat is the fierce competition from Amazon Fire TV, which puts its in-house content on Amazon front and center when you start the experience.
Roku has head and shoulders above the biggest library of content, and the Amazon effect could scare traditional media for licensing content to Amazon.
We have seen the trend of major players removing their content from streamers because of the inherent conflict of interests licensing content to them while they are developing an in-house business.
It makes no sense to voluntarily offer an advantage to competition.
Roku has no plans to initiate its own in-house original content, and this is the main reason that Amazon and Netflix will lose out on Disney (DIS), CBS (CBS), NBC, and Fox content going forward.
These traditional players categorize Roku as a partner and not a foe.
To get into bed with the traditional media giants means digital ads and lots of them. In terms of a user experience, the absence of ads on Netflix and Amazon is a huge positive for the consumer experience.
But traditional players have the option of bundling ads and content together on Roku making Roku even more of a diamond in the rough.
In short, nobody offers the type of supreme aggregator experience, deep penetration of cord-cutting viewership, and the best streaming content on one graphic interface like Roku.
It is truly an innovative company, and it is in the driver's seat to this magnificent growth story.
It's hard to argue with CEO Anthony Wood when he says that Roku is the future of TV.
He might be right.
If Roku keeps pushing the envelope enhancing its product, it will be front and center as a potential takeover target by a bigger tech company.
Either way, the scarcity value of these types of assets will drive its share prices to the moon, just avoid the nasty sell-offs.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"Google's not a real company. It's a house of cards," - said former CEO of Microsoft Steve Ballmer.
Global Market Comments
June 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR IS THIS A 1999 REPLAY?),
(AAPL), (FB), (NFLX), (AMZN), (GE), (WBT),
(JOIN ME ON THE QUEEN MARY 2 FOR MY JULY 11, 2018 SEMINAR AT SEA),
(JUNE 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SQ), (PANW), (FEYE), (FB), (LRCX), (BABA), (MOMO), (IQ), (BIDU), (AMD), (MSFT), (EDIT), (NTLA), Bitcoin, (FXE), (SPY), (SPX)
Another week, another trade war.
The stock market did not take well the administration's escalation of international tensions by threatening to increase Chinese imports subject to punitive duties from $50 billion to $250 billion.
Today, it got much worse with our government now targeting French luxury goods, including wine, handbags, and Roquefort cheese.
Please! Anything but the Roquefort cheese!
In the meantime technicians are getting increasingly nervous about the market concentration. Take out the top-performing 15 stocks, such as big tech and Boeing (BA) and we are already in a bear market. Some 60% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day moving averages and in solid downtrends.
One manager told me that a year from now we will be kicking ourselves for not selling, for all the signs to get out of Dodge were there.
In the meantime, I am hearing an alternative theory about technology stocks. The earnings growth is so prolific that they could continue to melt up for the rest of 2018. Indeed, Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and Salesforce (CRM) all hit new all-time highs this week.
Tech stocks are melting up because of blowout earnings expected in a month. After all, in this industry great quarters are followed by more great quarters.
By my calculation the shares prices of technology stocks have to double to bring their market capitalization of only 26% in line with their 50% share of the S&P 500 total earnings.
By the way, California now accounts for 19% of the U.S. population, 21% of U.S. GDP, but a staggering 35% of corporate profits, with two of four FANGs just spitting distance from my office.
Holy smokes! Are we seeing a replay of 1999, the notorious dot-com bubble top?
I hope not. Tech earnings multiples now average 25X compared to 100X back in the day. But this analysis does neatly fit in with my prediction that stocks top in the May-September 2019 time frame.
Last week also saw the shares of General Electric (GE) tossed on the ashcan of history, and the stock was taken out of the Dow Average, to be replaced by sedentary drug store Walgreens (WBA).
That's what a decade of lousy management gets you, which has vaporized a half trillion dollars of market capitalization since 2000. Back then, GE was the largest market cap company in the world, the equivalent of Apple (AAPL) today.
During this same time Apple created $900 billion in new market cap, the shares rocketing from $2.50 to $195. What a trade! Long Apple, short (GE) for 18 years.
As for Apple, it is unique among the FANGs in having the biggest exposure to China. It employs 1 million there, sells more iPhones in the Middle Kingdom than in the U.S., and is crucial to the company's long-term growth plans. The rest of the FANGs have virtually NO China exposure.
This realization caused me to stop out of my position in Apple shares for a loss during its $12 plunge off its all-time high at $195. That brought my 2018 year-to-date performance down to 24.91% and my 8 1/2 year return to 301.38%.
Fortunately, aggressive longs in Amazon, Salesforce, Microsoft, and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) still have me up +4.54% in June, my 12th consecutive positive month.
This coming week will be all about the May real estate and housing data, which we already know will be hotter than a pistol.
On Monday, June 25, at 10:00 AM, May New Home Sales are out.
On Tuesday, June 26, at 9:00 AM, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April is released. May Consumer Confidence is out at 10:00 AM.
On Wednesday, June 27, at 8:30 AM, May Durable Goods is published. May Pending Home Sales are out at 10:00 AM.
Thursday, June 28, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 3,000 last week to 218,000. Also announced is another read on US Q1 GDP. The last report came in at a moderate 2.2%.
On Friday, June 29, at 9:45 AM EST, we get the May Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.
As for me, I will be headed to Los Angeles for my one beach weekend this year. Got to keep those body surfing skills finely tuned, and I'll have a chance to work on my tan before going to sea for a week in July.
In California it's all about the tan.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
Global Market Comments
June 20, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA, CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018),
(THE CHINA TRADE WAR TURNS HOT),
(GM), (AAPL), (SOYB), (WEAT), (CORN)
The trade war with China has suddenly gone from small beer to a big deal. In just two months, we have gone from campaign promises to threats, to an increase in duties from $50 billion to $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.
The risk of destroying the current strength of the economy and the stock market is now on the table. Already, the Dow Average has given up all its 2018 gains and is now down 1.1% on the year.
All we will be left with is a big tax cut for corporations, $3 trillion in new government debt, and a recession.
As a result, the current rally in the stock market will fail, and a test of the 2018 lows is on the menu. My 2018 range for stocks until the midterm election lives!
Of the past 10 years, China has generated 50% of global economic growth, the U.S. 35%, and the rest of the world the balance. Imports from the U.S. to China were already on a sharp upswing, and it is now our third largest trading partner.
Imports of U.S. autos has soared from 125,356 units in 2011 to 267,473 in 2017, and that doesn't count American cars, such as the GM Buick, built in China. It now looks like all of this will suddenly grind to a halt.
Not only will Chinese middle-class consumers buy European and Japanese going forward, the American brand has been destroyed by our open hostility and insults. Apple (AAPL) sells more iPhones in China than the U.S., but I'm not sure that will last either.
China only imported $150 billion worth of goods from the U.S. last year. That means to implement a tit-for-tat, dollar-for-dollar retaliation China will have to hit the U.S. services sector hard. Similarly, you can bet that Chinese investment in the U.S. will be sharply curtailed.
The true cost of the trade war isn't in the dollar amounts involved ... yet. But the impact on business confidence has been catastrophic.
Investment globally is slowing because nobody knows if their industry, or their company will get hit next by American off-the-cuff policies. Just ask any soybean (SOYB) farmer who is looking at a de facto ban on Chinese purchases of their products. The price of their commodity has collapsed by 16% in a week.
In the end, Trump will get what he wants, a lower U.S. trade deficit. But it will come in the form of collapsing demand from U.S. consumers generated by the next recession. That is the only way the American trade deficit has fallen for the past century.
Be careful what you wish for.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 20, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(GOOGLE'S GRAND CHINA PLAY),
(BABA), (JD), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (BIDU), (AMZN), (NFLX)
There is light at the end of the tunnel.
A glimmer of hope is better than nothing.
Stolen IP was yesterday's story.
The administration's attempts to stick China with the bill is a waste of time.
The stock market is forward-looking and that is what I focus on when writing the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
American tech companies want to turn over this bitter page of history and construct a fruitful future.
Ironically, it could be no other than American large tech companies that solves this trade misunderstanding by embracing Chinese tech instead of dragging them through the embers of political chaos.
That is what this groundbreaking partnership between Alphabet (GOOGL) and China's second largest e-commerce company JD.com (JD) is telling us.
If American and Chinese tech agree to fuse together through different M&A activity, strategic partnerships, and engineering projects, slapping penalties on your own interests would be without basis.
Albeit gone are the yesteryears of complete ownership on the other's turf, a medium ground could be found to satisfy both parties.
Alphabet's $550 million investment will give it 27 million shares of JD.com Class A shares equating to a 1% stake in JD.com.
JD.com products will now be hawked on Google Shopping, a platform giving users a chance to compare different price points from various sellers.
JD.com's fresh links with Silicon Valley's original powerhouse is timely because its business-to-consumer retail sales have slightly dipped in form from 27% last year to an underwhelming 25% in the first quarter of 2018.
Alibaba (BABA), the Amazon of China, is the 800-pound gorilla in the room and has a stranglehold on this market, carving out a robust 60% of sales from business to consumer retail.
Chinese companies have never worried about foreign companies seizing market share in China because they know the rigid operating environment mixed with "cultural" barriers will lead to a rapid demise.
Chinese firms are channeling their distress toward local competitors that understand the market as well as they do and number in the 100s in any one industry.
This is also a huge bet on the Chinese consumer who has put the world economy on its back creating the lions' share of global growth for the past 10 years.
Do not bet against China and the Chinese consumer.
Alphabet is taking this sentiment to the bank by integrating part of a premium Chinese tech firm into its own top line performance.
This investment would not happen if Alphabet believed the trade war could turn draconian cannibalizing each other's profit engines.
Alphabet has obviously been reading the tea leaves from the Mad Hedge Technology Letter as I identified China's huge competitive advantage in Southeast Asia and the huge potential for Chinese companies that migrate there.
The pivot toward Southeast Asia was the deal clincher for Alphabet and rightly so.
Alphabet has also invested in opening an A.I. (artificial intelligence) lab in Beijing showing its determination to extract a piece of the pie from China and ensuring their brand power is maintained in the Middle Kingdom.
Google search has been shut down on mainland China since 2010. Therefore, Alphabet needs to find alternative ways to benefit from the Chinese consumer and increase its presence.
The writing on the wall was when Baidu (BIDU) came to the fore with its own Chinese version of Google search.
Opportunities on the mainland have been scarce ever since the appearance of Baidu.
Apple (AAPL) has been the premier role model in China successfully juggling the complexities of the Chinese market. A big part of its staying power is offering local Chinese jobs.
Not just a few jobs, but millions.
As of April 2017, an Apple press release stated, "Apple has created and supported 4.8 million jobs in China" which is almost three times more than in America.
Apple deploys much of its supply chain around the mainland and taking down Apple in a trade war would strip millions of Chinese jobs in one fell swoop.
Not only that, Apple has deeply invested in data centers located in China and opened research centers in Shanghai and Suzhou.
Foxconn, a company responsible for assembling iPhones in mainland China, employs 1.2 million alone.
Alphabet would be smart to follow in the same footsteps, effectively, morphing into a hybrid Chinese company employing locals in droves and allowing millions of Chinese to earn their crust of bread through local factories.
Let me be clear: This would not hurt its business back at home.
It is also wrong to say that China is saturating because the 6.8% annual growth rate in China is a firm vote of confidence for Chinese discretionary spenders.
However, instead of competing head to head under the scrutiny of Chinese regulators, it is much more sensical to copy SoftBank's Masayoshi Son's lead when he invested $25 million in Jack Ma's Alibaba in 1999.
SoftBank's 1999 investment is now valued at more than $30 billion as of the current share price today.
Yahoo later joined the party in 2005, investing $1 billion into Alibaba and that stake is worth many times over.
Instead of fighting through cultural norms and fighting against the throes of an exotic business environment, paying for a stake and leaving its nose out of it has shown to be demonstrably effective.
Partnerships complicate the relationship, but if management can lock down each side's commitment to the very T, collaboration could spur even more innovation benefiting both countries and bottom lines.
China has draconian Internet controls put in place. American tech companies aren't up to snuff with cultural maneuverability to navigate through these shark-infested waters.
Better to pay for a stake and pick up the check after the market close.
Another winner in this deal is tech valuations, which has been the Cinderella story of 2018.
Although American tech companies will probably never be able to own 100% of a Chinese BAT. However, allowing these types of investments to go ahead is certainly bullish for equities.
Tech is still the sector lifting the heavy weight stateside and promoting innovation through collaboration will do a great deal to win the hearts and minds of Chinese people, companies and government.
As much as China hates the stain to its image of this nebulous trade war, it still deeply respects and admires large-cap American tech companies.
Chinese Millennials particularly have a deep love affair with Tesla's Elon Musk. They are captivated by his braggadocio, which they find appealingly exotic and captivatingly un-Chinese.
Through this partnership, JD.com will learn heaps about cutting-edge ad-tech and is guaranteed to apply the know-how to its home user base. In return, Alphabet will get deep insights of how JD.com controls the entire logistical experience and how a Chinese tech behemoth operates its supply chain.
The nuggets of information pocketed will help Alphabet compete more with Amazon back at home.
This is a win-win proposition.
Adding even more cream on top, enhanced brand awareness by joining together with Google could catapult JD.com into the shop window of America's consciousness.
Up until today, JD.com is hardly known about in the West except for specialists that avidly follow technology like the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
I reiterate my stance of not buying into Chinese tech companies, and readers would be better served buying Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Netflix. (NFLX)
It makes no sense to trade stocks mired in the heart of a trade war.
As much as I love Alibaba as a company, it has been trading in a range because of the whipsawing headlines released in the press.
However, I can stand from afar and admire how the Chinese BATs have advanced in such a short amount of time.
If American tech and Chinese tech merge to the point of unrecognizability, consolidation could create a super tech power comprising of mixed Chinese and American interests.
Instead of bickering at each other, other solutions look to be more compelling.
The world's economy needs a healthy Chinese economy and vibrant Chinese consumer.
If the Chinese economy ever fell off a cliff, you can kiss this nine-year equity bull market goodbye, and the Mad Hedge Technology Letter would turn extremely bearish in a blink of an eye.
Therefore, America has a large stake in not alienating the Mandarins to the point of disgust.
I am still bullish on equities, but vigilance is the name of the game for short-term traders.
Package Delivery!
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"My belief is that one plus one equals three. The pie gets larger, working together," Apple CEO Tim Cook said about its operations in mainland China and working with the Chinese Communist government.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 19, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRAVIS IS BACK!),
(UBER), (RDFN), (Z), (LEN), (CRM), (MSFT), (AAPL)
Travis Kalanick is back in full force after his Uber fiasco.
His creation kicked him to the curb preferring a more rigid approach to corporate governance as the 2019 IPO draws closer.
It didn't take much time for him to take stock of his piggy bank.
Yes, the $1.4 billion payout he received means he has nothing to do with Uber anymore.
Some piggy bank.
Travis intends to wield this wad aggressively using his new fund "10100" as his finance vehicle to pounce on hot, new tech names.
Travis doesn't know any other way, and investors should be alert to where he turns to find his new Uber and his new baby.
Future foes should understand Kalanick is one of the most feared disruptors on the face of the earth.
He co-founded Uber in 2009 growing it into the premier transportation platform.
The whirlwind few years launched him from a nobody to one of the premier tech names in Silicon Valley.
So, what's the deal?
What I can tell you is that house prices are about to get a whole lot pricier and there is nothing you can do about it.
Travis Kalanick's investment into house flipping app Opendoor will be the first stage of a torrential stampede of tech capital flowing into this sector.
More importantly, it's a sign of intent by Kalanick.
The real estate industry is the unequivocal prehistoric dinosaur that hasn't changed for decades.
It's almost a matter of time before the process of buying a house becomes digitized, either partially or fully.
Remember, Uber functions as a broker app matching drivers and passengers through a platform built on algorithmic software.
It would make logical sense for tech companies to attack the low-hanging fruit - meaning every industry that places brokers at the heart of business.
The broker app software is tried and tested with a gold stamp of approval. It works, and tech executives understand how to monetize the data.
Traditional brokers would get pummeled in this scenario, as the data applied to a new real estate broker app would eclipse anything a real human would be able to accomplish removing human error.
Real estate is next on disruption pecking order, and tech is coming for its bacon because of the huge sums of money associated with American real estate.
The real estate industry is not a scooter sharing business and requires boat loads of money to get ahead.
Tech has the cash but needs to figure out execution and its future road map.
The bulk of tech capital has been funneled into M&A that has seen tech companies pay multiples above what were guessed as fair value.
Share buybacks have been another hot source of investment.
Opendoor is a house-flipping firm intent on changing the status quo.
The business model entails snapping up distress properties, fixing them up, and selling them for a profit.
Opendoor receives a 6% commission for facilitating this whole process.
Opendoor has already served 20,000 customers saving more than 400,000 of prep time.
It is already on the hook for $1.5 billion in loans. SoftBank's vision fund is knocking on the door eager to become the next investor.
In 2016, this company was valued at $1 billion and after the latest round of financing giving Opendoor another $325 million, that number has crept up to $2 billion.
I have heard from solid sources that the SoftBank capital could be delivered in the next few months, likely paying another solid premium boosting tech valuations across the board.
Paying up has been a universal theme in 2018.
Microsoft's (MSFT) purchase of GitHub and Salesforce's (CRM) purchase of MuleSoft seem like overpaying but appear cheap in hindsight.
With the new cash ready to deploy, Opendoor seeks to expand to 50 cities by 2020, a swift upward jolt from its current 10 cities.
Not only will tier 1 cities feel the brunt of this new development, Opendoor plans to go into the lesser known cities and plans to double its staff from 650 to 1,300 in the upcoming year.
Kalanick caught onto this investment opportunity after one of his former Uber minions, Gautam Gupta, made the jump to Opendoor as COO and liaised CEO Eric Wu with Kalanick to hash out a deal.
It's nice to have friends in high places as Kalanick knows very well.
Even traditional home builders are getting in on the venture capitalist act.
Lennar was one of the investors in the latest round of Opendoor investment, underscoring the existential threat these traditional companies face.
It makes more sense to partner now and form a budding relationship than get utterly wiped out down the road.
Uber hopes to deploy this strategy with Waymo as Kalanick's former company knows it will never possess superior self-driving technology over Waymo.
The Lennar investment also gave Jon Jaffe, the COO of home builder Lennar, a seat on Opendoor's board.
Opendoor is the first serious tech foray into the housing business. It is initiating business on the periphery by focusing on fixer uppers.
This will allow Opendoor to cut its teeth and learn more about the industry before it migrates into higher margin business such as downtown condos that Millennials love.
A swift migration of other tech names will briskly follow into this undisrupted industry if Opendoor can pry open its floodgates.
Fixing up distressed houses is the gateway into brokering and the holy grail of constructing.
Tech could eventually wipe out everyone and control the whole process just like what investors have seen in the transportation industry.
I can imagine a future where tech companies will be the best firms to construct smart houses, which all houses will eventually become.
One massive aftereffect is that the average quality of housing will rise dramatically in all metropolitan areas.
Once the data amasses, Opendoor will be able to identify every property from where it can extract value allowing America to transform into a nation of pristine, smart houses.
Renovating a house and selling it will boost the prices of current houses.
Effectively, tech with gentrify housing creating higher quality but higher priced properties.
Millennials, who have had an awful time jumping on the property ladder, will have an even more difficult task finding a starter home if every starter house turns into a beautiful Tuscan-styled villa from a shabby shed.
Vice-versa, beautiful Tuscan-styled villas that cannot be "flipped" will become smart homes creating even more demand for IoT smart products and higher prices per square foot.
Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capitalist firm based in Menlo Park, California, has been one of the avant-garde tech investors seizing stakes in Twitter, Facebook, Skype, Coinbase, and Lyft.
And these were just some of its investments before 2014!
An industry where Travis Kalanick, SoftBank, and Andreesen Horowitz are piling in must have real estate agents shivering in their wake.
If the general trend keeps up, the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett could be next on this powerful list.
He usually likes to buy things he understands with healthy cash flow. I am sure he understands real estate more than Apple (AAPL), in which he had no problem investing.
Traditional home builders and real estate agents aren't the only players that could be left in the dust.
Zillow (Z), the online real estate database company, reacting from the Opendoor threat launched its new business to buy and sell homes.
It was only three years ago that Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff determinedly hunkered down telling investors "we sell ads, not houses."
Innovation, tech disruption, and competition changes everything.
The stock sold off hard due to the exorbitant costs related to buying homes on the announcement of buying and selling houses.
Margins will get massacred in this scenario, but I applaud the decision to move up higher on the value chain diminishing the existential threat.
This whole industry is about to be flipped on its head, and the winners will be the most innovative companies that incorporate data best.
Rascoff further expanded saying, "I can say without exaggeration, that no company understands the American homebuyer and home seller better than Zillow Group."
Zillow is 12 years old and the12-year treasury trove of data will give it an optimal chance to pivot from selling ads to buying and selling houses.
Seattle-based Redfin (RDFN), Zillow's arch nemesis competitor founded in 2004, has an even larger treasure trove of data dating back 14-plus years and has moved in the same direction.
Redfin was anointed the top tech company to work for in Seattle in 2017 by Hired.com.
There is enormous potential to add another monstrous business to Redfin and Zillow's top line.
The real estate industry is next in line to be digitized, and the Mad Hedge Technology Letter will be the first to know when it's time to dip your toe in.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"As a tech entrepreneur, I try to push the limits. Pedal to the metal," - said former cofounder of Uber Travis Kalanick.
