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Tag Archive for: (ADA)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Strong Breadth of Crypto

Bitcoin Letter

Periods of weakness in Bitcoin price action often reflect positioning and profit-taking rather than a breakdown in the asset’s underlying structure.

Bitcoin remains a volatile asset by design, and retracements have historically occurred even during sustained growth phases. Sharp pullbacks, while uncomfortable, have repeatedly functioned as resets rather than trend reversals.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin’s price behavior continues to reflect cyclical volatility rather than instability.

Corrections are a feature, not a flaw.

Bitcoin does not move in a straight line, and expectations that it should do so tend to form near local extremes rather than durable inflection points.

What has been more notable during periods of Bitcoin consolidation is the behavior of the broader digital asset market.

Even when Bitcoin has struggled to make near-term progress, capital rotation into alternative crypto assets has often remained active, signaling broader participation rather than capital flight.

Assets such as Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano have each experienced phases of outsized growth across multiple market cycles, alongside many smaller projects that have captured speculative and developmental interest.

This breadth reflects a market that has expanded beyond a single-asset thesis.

Bitcoin has begun to exhibit characteristics of a more mature asset, even while remaining volatile by traditional standards.

At the same time, much of the altcoin market remains earlier in its development curve, where experimentation, speculation, and rapid growth are more common.

As a result, capital that once flowed almost exclusively into Bitcoin increasingly disperses across a wider set of digital assets, particularly those perceived to offer higher upside at earlier stages.

A few years ago, broad-based participation across dozens of crypto assets would have seemed implausible.

The expansion of liquidity beyond Bitcoin reflects both increased risk tolerance and a growing belief that multiple blockchain networks can coexist with differentiated use cases.

That dispersion does not weaken Bitcoin’s role, but it does change how capital cycles through the ecosystem.

Macro conditions also continue to influence crypto markets.

Strength in the US dollar and shifts in global liquidity have periodically pressured risk assets, including digital currencies. While Bitcoin is often framed as an alternative monetary asset, it still competes for capital within the same global financial system.

During periods of dollar strength or tightening financial conditions, it is common for investors to reduce exposure, lock in gains, or rebalance toward perceived safety.

Currency volatility in emerging and developed markets alike has reinforced this dynamic, reminding investors that crypto does not exist in isolation from global macro forces.

Another recurring source of market anxiety has been the distribution of long-dormant bitcoin holdings from early industry failures.

The long-running resolution of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy has periodically resurfaced as a sentiment overhang, driven by concerns that large distributions could temporarily pressure prices.

Historically, however, such events have tended to influence short-term behavior rather than long-term market structure.

Even when additional supply enters the market, it does not alter Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule or long-term scarcity.

If selling pressure emerges, it typically delays recovery rather than defining a new secular trend.

Despite these intermittent headwinds, the broader direction of crypto adoption has remained constructive.

Bitcoin continues to attract institutional interest, corporate balance-sheet allocation, and sovereign-level experimentation, while alternative networks push forward with development, scaling, and application design.

That combination has reinforced the idea that crypto markets are no longer driven by a single narrative or participant class.

Breadth across assets, use cases, and geographies has become one of the defining characteristics of the ecosystem.

Volatility remains, cycles persist, and corrections are unavoidable.

But the widening participation across digital assets suggests that crypto has moved beyond its earliest phase, even if it remains far from mature.

That breadth continues to be one of the strongest signals underpinning the asset class.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-01-26 13:08:442026-02-05 13:54:59The Strong Breadth of Crypto
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Alternative Tech Gets Hammered

Tech Letter

The goalposts are narrowing with liquidity not making it out to the outer edge of the risk spectrum.

Bitcoin has had some weaknesses but the alternative currencies have really felt the guillotine drop.

When push comes to shove, the tide doesn’t lift all boats in eroding economic conditions.

Yes, we are about to start cutting rates, but that is because the economy is starting to stagnate and tech stocks have felt the full brunt of it.

Tech stocks have had a rough September and it was going to take a lot to move the needle with these lofty prices. 

It was about time that investors took profits.

What has that meant for crypto?

It means a grim short-term outlook that the industry will need to endure.

11 U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds had their worst day in over four months after the report, as more than $287 million was collectively withdrawn from the ETFs.

The data was bad through the end of the week. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a cooldown in the labor market with August payrolls falling short of expectations.

Last week, Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase wrapped up its worst week of the year. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital tumbled 20%.

September is historically a difficult trading month for crypto assets, with bitcoin notching an average loss of 4.8%.

The total market cap of crypto is down close to 30% from its 2024 peak of $2.67 trillion and is now at $1.9 trillion. Altcoins like Solana’s token, XRP, and Cardano’s ADA all dropped more than 8% last week.

While it was a rough week for risky assets of all sorts, investors over-indexed in crypto stocks had it particularly bad.

Coinbase, stuck in a court battle with the SEC over whether the exchange engages in unregistered sales of securities, plummeted 20% to its lowest since February. MicroStrategy, the bitcoin collecting company founded by Michael Saylor, dropped 26% in the last two weeks.

The top Bitcoin mining companies all ended last week with double-digit declines, led by CleanSpark’s 24% plunge. Riot Platforms lost 17%.

As investors turn to what’s coming, one big area of focus is the Federal Reserve.

If the Fed does in fact lower rates, I do see crypto and tech stocks reflating.

However, some alternative crypto stocks might get left behind and I fear for an asset like ether which was once seen as the second-best crypto.

Ether’s price has fallen to the point that suggests it really isn’t that important to the crypto industry.

Bitcoin has stood out as the all-weather crypto asset that could benefit most during the easing cycle.

In truth, technology stocks delivered some type of mini miracle by performing well when rates turned higher.

There is definitely a good chance that initiating a lower rate cycle might add rocket fuel to tech stocks.

Remember that tech stocks are the only equities that have grown their earnings during the past few years.

Much of the recent success is also due to chip stock Nvidia which has led the charge for tech companies surging past other big tech companies as the most influential stock in the world.

As we shake out the good from the bad, I urge readers to get into the best of breed, in tech and not crypto, when risk is initiated again.

I also urge caution to anyone who likes to get into crypto that it is a high-risk asset that could get dumped one day if people need capital to pay for mortgages and food.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-09-13 14:02:132024-09-13 15:35:07Alternative Tech Gets Hammered
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 2, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
June 2, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(OFFLINE CRYPTO)
(BTC), (ETH), (SOL), (ADA), (XRP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-02 16:04:472022-06-02 17:21:44June 2, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Offline Crypto

Bitcoin Letter

One of the first requirements to be anointed as a major cryptocurrency is to not be off.

This might seem highly intuitive, but many cryptocurrencies haven’t solved this one yet.

When a whole coin network is offline then the incremental investors look over to the greener pastures on the other side of the fence and ponder if it’s worth paying a higher premium for something that stays on.

Bitcoin can’t be turned off. Invest accordingly.

According to the Bitcoin Uptime Tracker, the Bitcoin network has been functional for 99.98742319836% of its lifetime.

I would consider that quite positive, even more so when I look at just what happened to altcoin Solana (SOL) which has been bundled routinely into the top 5 cryptocurrency conversation.

The Solana network has been plagued by a number of outages and it's been estimated that the proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain has been down a total of eight times.

Each of these 8 times, the network suffers a massive loss of trust and confidence.

When an investor can’t get in touch with its capital on a network, that’s when full stop panic mode occurs.

It dumps insult to injury as the price has already tanked from $260 to $40 today.

Solana’s blockchain lost operational activity for over seven hours.

Solana’s development team has formally acknowledged some of the issues it was dealing with and how it “degraded performance.”

The team blamed “high compute transactions, which is reducing network capacity to several thousand transactions per second.”

Like many of the cloud companies plan for higher data usage by integrating more cloud data centers, the developers at Solana aren’t pre-emptively planning for bottlenecks.

That screams amateurism.

An investor must ask if this is the type of coin or network you want to put significant amounts of money on, and the answer is clearly no.

Only a fool would touch Solana even with its lofty $14 billion market cap.

Of course, with Solana going down again, the backlash has been relentless.

Many have joked if this is another Terra/Luna bankruptcy debacle even if Solana isn’t a stable coin.

Meanwhile, this gives credence to why investors should look to other coins such as ETH, XRP, and cardano (ADA).

Then there is the pure asset depreciation from being offline and SOL lost 9.9% in value against the U.S. dollar.

Coinbase also reported on Solana’s latest outage and noted that the exchange had to disable send and receives on the network.

Following last month's outage, one of Solana's recent improvements was supposed to resolve the network's congestion difficulties.

It’s not a secret that instead of a significant network update, the inverse has happened, and the Solana network issues have gotten worse.

Even worse, the repeated solutions appear to be mere stopgap measures with a high possibility of happening again.

These are terrible optics for a beleaguered crypto coin at a time when the entire industry is on the back foot.

The bellwether crypto coin Bitcoin has lost over half of its value triggering talks of a crypto winter.

Then mix in various implosions, developer mistakes, and high energy costs making crypto unprofitable to miners and there is a lot of negativity coalescing inside the industry.

In short, stick with the strongest cryptocurrencies namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, and don’t stray much further than that unless you are prepared to take a zero.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-06-02 16:02:432022-06-02 17:22:11Offline Crypto
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 25, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

 

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
January 25, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SELL THE SHORT TERM RALLIES)
(BTC), (ETH), (SHIB), (DOGE), (ADA)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-01-25 17:04:512022-01-25 18:06:51January 25, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Sell the Short Term Rallies

Bitcoin Letter

Bitcoin must be treated as a sell-the-rally asset at this point.

I am not giving up on crypto, but I must acknowledge what is happening in the markets.

Suffering from a broad-based risk aversion move with investors dumping literally everything is something that happens when investors need to meet margin calls.

It’s not about Bitcoin at this point, it’s just caught up in the wash, as asset prices around the world readjust to the new Central Bank policies.

The market is looking through the tailwinds crypto possesses from store of value, inflation hedge, limited supply, and an alternative asset to the US dollar.

It doesn’t matter in the heat of the battle and when everything sells off.

Bitcoin hitting the very lower limit of $30,000 means that investors aren’t ready to ditch the dollar for this high-flying digital currency.

In fact, the US dollar has held up quite strongly in the face of trillions of debt issuance.

Look around the globe and the US dollar has absorbed the Fed’s action in stride reflecting little depreciation stemming from the decision to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the system.

The dollars’ strength means that the transition into digital currencies will take longer than first estimated.

Bitcoin won’t take over in one day, but it will experience a gradual adoption phase with the bruises to show for it.

With Russia's move to ban crypto assets lighting the fuse of the latest plunge, Bitcoin's price moves have become closely linked to technology shares, which have slumped on rate hike fears.

The culmination of Netflix warnings of sagging growth triggered another wave of risk aversion in the markets hitting crypto again to knock it down deep into the lower $30,000 range.

In the short term, traders need to play Bitcoin from the $40,000 level and sell rallies until conditions change.

Ethereum, one of the hottest digital coin trades that have soared in popularity thanks to the non-fungible token (NFT) boom, has halved down to the mid-$2,000 level.

Bitcoin, even with its massive underperformance, is still outperforming the minnows of cryptocurrency.

On the horizon, sadly, plans of 4 rates hikes is generally going to cause more pain for risk-on assets, and especially crypto as investors have been conditioned to sell crypto at the first sight of trouble.

On the derivatives side, about 200,000 positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling more than $800 million in losses and growing according to Coinglass.

Forced liquidations enhanced the selloff and there have been few dip buyers who are waiting out for healthier macro signaling.

For the past two weeks, most of the funding rates in crypto futures have leaned to the short-seller side according to data from The Block Research.

Many retail traders that got into Bitcoin at the peak are now rushing to sell everything and even institutional money are looking at raising cash through the sale of Bitcoin.

I do believe that Bitcoin is still in the midst of a secular bull market, but sentiment and conditions must settle before we reignite the bull case.

Inflation is still a secular tailwind for Bitcoin and other crypto’s, but not in an environment of a panicking Fed who has made a policy misstep.

The altcoin picture is gloomy with Ethereum sidechain Polygon’s (MATIC) token down 36% and Cardano’s (ADA) token is down 61% since their all-time highs in September, when the latter project announced the launch of their smart contracts.

Altcoins suffered drawdowns as steep as 90-99% during the 2017-2018 crypto cycle and the same could happen as investors rush to safer assets.

Naturally, the biggest category of altcoin losers is meme coins.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is now nearly 80% down from its all-time high last May, despite a recent tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk that temporarily sent DOGE up as much as 33%.

Shiba Inu (SHIB), another dog-themed coin that gained 1,607% last year, is down 71% from its all-time high.

Sell the rallies at $40,000.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-01-25 17:02:382022-01-25 18:06:05Sell the Short Term Rallies
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 7, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
December 7, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BITCOIN BULL STORY IS IN-TACT)
(BTC), (ADA), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-07 15:04:202021-12-07 16:27:37December 7, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bitcoin Bull Story is In-Tact

Bitcoin Letter

No, the Bitcoin bull market is not over, but we won’t get our Santa Claus rally this year.

The short-term reversal in prices has been encouraging, but I do expect further bouts of volatility to occur most likely in early January.

We received some great signaling that capital isn’t bolting out the back of the stable with Bitcoin returning to over $50,000 overnight inspired by one of the largest wallets to buy the equivalent of $137 million more Bitcoin.

This Bitcoin whale is loading up again here, even though so many people and fake bitcoin keyboard warriors are saying that we are now in a bear market.

I don't see any confirmation of the bear market yet as no key support has been lost.

This wallet holder upped the ante overnight with a single purchase of 2,700 BTC — taking their total to 118,017 BTC.

The buy crushes previous recent transactions and increases the holder’s balance to breathtaking record levels.

This is officially the highest number of BTC ever held in this wallet: 118,017 BTC, in total this big spender has poured $2.5B USD to buy BTC with an average cost basis of $21,160 per BTC.

Interest and demand in Bitcoin rose a lot in 2021 despite the volatility. More than half of current investors got in over the last 12 months, adding another positive data point to the Bitcoin narrative.

In a survey of 1,000 people, about a quarter said they already owned Bitcoin and of that 55% said they started investing this year.

The results highlight the explosive growth cryptocurrencies have seen this year as investors plowed money toward the volatile asset class amid growing mainstream adoption.  

It is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to ignore Bitcoin as its price continues to rise.

Major altcoins have also reversed course with this relief rally.

Ether (ETH) rallied 11.4% Tuesday, outpacing BTC in a pattern mimicked by several other large-cap tokens.

Other altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Litecoin are up over 9% validating my thesis of altcoins outgaining Bitcoin for the catch-up trade.

I don’t believe that this weekend's crash can partially be blamed on the US congress' upcoming questioning of top crypto executives. Nobody knows yet how badly this investigation will impact the market, but I wouldn’t say anything meaningful will happen.

In fact, much of the volatility has been caused by poor communication from the US Central Bank that peaked with US Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling the Fed will move faster than expected to tame inflation.

The algorithms had a field day dumping positions in volume.

Consensus had it that interest rate expectations would largely be left alone this December, but the Fed signaling that they plan to move earlier to break off the inflation genie caused all risk assets into a short-term tailspin.

That being said, I don’t believe the Fed will do more damage the rest of this month, and we should experience a relief rally into the yearend.

I would double down and say the Fed could have waited until January, because everyone understands how bad inflation is running its course, and it was largely baked into the market.

To get ahead of the next CPI inflation number is definitely a knee-jerk reaction and if the Fed has more of these fast pivots in 2022, we will experience a 10-15% correction in Bitcoin each time.

Long term, the US financial system will not be able to stave off highly inflationary policies, it’s like a drug addiction that can’t be shaken off.

Triggering inflationary-backed economic growth is the only way to make a dent in the federal debt hole, it just means that home price and wages will be a lot higher in nominal terms every year.

I merely see this short-term swoon as one step backward before we push forward again with the wild inflation.

People in the know have acknowledged that many corporations are building up reserves for 30% increases for 2022 salary and that is not a typo.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-07 15:02:232021-12-07 16:27:57The Bitcoin Bull Story is In-Tact
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 23 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE STRONG BREADTH OF CRYPTO)
(BTC), (ETH), (ADA), (SOL), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-23 16:04:152021-11-23 17:17:57November 23 2021

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