Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
Posts
Global Market Comments
October 28, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or DON’T FIGHT THE FED),
(BIIB), (IBB), (TSLA), (VIX), (BA), (AMZN), (AAPL), (MSFT), (GM)
Don’t fight the Fed.
That was the overwhelming message of the market last week as it ground up to a new intraday all-time high. The economy may be going to hell in a handbasket. But as long as the Fed keeps lowering interest rates, stocks will go up, kicking and screaming all the way. It’s that simple.
America’s central bank will get its next chance to cut rates on Wednesday at 2:00 PM from the current overnight rate of 2.00%.
The big question is: Will the curse of the Fed continue? For the last two times the Fed lowered interest rates, substantial stock market selloffs ensued, the last one reaching a 7.5% haircut. We will know shortly.
The Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference held last weekend was a blowout success, with a great time had by all. The weather couldn’t have been more perfect, with the lake waters calm and crystal clear. A day of market insights were delivered by me and Mad Hedge Technology Letter author Arthur Henry.
The only drawback was that several guests were prevented from going home by mandatory evacuations of several Bay Area cities and the closure of Interstate 80 going back to San Francisco. A handful (including me), had no electric power to return to when they got home.
I’ll share with you the most disturbing chart of the entire day showing the S&P 500 (SPY) has been grinding up to new highs, earnings forecasts have been absolutely falling off a cliff. Clearly, with the Volatility Index (VIX) back down to the lowly $12 handle, this is a market that is cruising for a bruising….someday.
Brexit failed again, taking the quagmire into its fourth year. An EC deal is postponed until January 31, but they’re really not interested at all. British pounds collapsing, creating a new “RISK OFF” leg worldwide. Prime minister Johnson has lost 5 consecutive parliamentary votes, an all-time record. When will he get the message?
US Capital Investment has ground to a halt, with business fixed investment down 1% YOY. No one knows where to put their money, inside the US or not, so they're doing nothing until it is sorted out. Call me when its over.
Biogen (BIIB) exploded to the upside on its FDA application for its new Alzheimer’s drug. Written off for dead six months ago, the company secretly kept working on Aducanumab until today’s blockbuster announcement. The drug reverses amyloid plaques thought responsible for Alzheimer’s. The stock is up an incredible 38% and has even dragged up the biotech ETF (IBB) 3%. Buy (BIIB) on dips.
Boeing soared on accelerated production timeline for 2020. Good thing I bought it just recently. The stock had been severely oversold on a $45 dive in two days. Buy (BA) on the dips.
The trade war is back in business with the Chinese demanding a total end to tariffs before any big ag buys. The rumors knocked stocks back on their heels. The Middle Kingdom also takes issue with recent Pence comments about basketball. Trump is definitely cornered. The trade war pain has gone global, with Europe taking the biggest hit. Some 40% of Germany’s GDP comes from exports. Growth will be on the skids for the next two years, even if a deal is done tomorrow.
Tesla shocked, bringing in a profit for only the third time in company history, and causing the stock to soar $55. The 100,000-unit production target within yearend looks within reach. Most importantly, they opened up a new supercharger station in Incline Village, Nevada! Tesla is now America’s most valuable car maker, beating (GM). The ideological Exxon-financed shorts have been destroyed once and for all. Buy (TSLA) on dips. There’s a ten bagger in this one.
Amazon put out a gloomy Christmas forecast on the back of a disappointing earnings report, crushing the shares by 7%. Looks like the trade war might cause a recession next year. Q3 revenues were great, up 24% to an eye-popping $70 billion. Good thing I took profits on the last option expiration. Poor Jeff Bezos, the abandoned son of an alcoholic circus clown, dropped $7 billion in net worth on Thursday. Buy (AMZN) on the dips.
The safest stock in the market, Microsoft, says it’s all about the cloud. Azure revenues grew a stunning 59% in Q3. (MSFT) is now up 37% on the year. Keep buying every dip, if we ever get another one.
Apple stock soared to new all-time high, taking the market cap just short of $1.1 trillion. iPhones are now less than 50% of total sales. The company is firing on all cylinders. My target is $200. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
Existing Home Sales dropped, down 2.2% in September to 5.38 million units. It’s shocking given the incredibly low level of interest rates. A shortage of supply?
This was a week for the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service to stay level at an all-time high. With only one position left in Boeing (BA), not much else was going to happen.
My Global Trading Dispatch reached new pinnacle of +349.47% for the past ten years and my 2019 year-to-date accelerated to +48.42%. The notoriously volatile month of October stands at a blockbuster +11.91%. My ten-year average annualized profit held steady at +35.24%.
With my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index sitting around the neutral 62 level, it is too close to neutral to do anything dramatic.
The coming week is pretty non eventful of the data front. Maybe the stock market will be non-eventful as well.
On Monday, October 28 at 8:30 AM, the September Chicago Fed National Activity Index is published. Alphabet (GOOGL), and AT&T (T) report.
On Tuesday, October 29 at 9:00 AM, we get a new S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index for August. Amgen (AMGN) and Pfizer (P) report.
On Wednesday, October 30, at 8:30 AM, the first read on US Q3 GDP is announced. At 10:30 AM, EIA Energy Stocks are published. Then at 2:00 PM, we obtain the FOMC interest rate decision. Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) report.
On Thursday, October 31 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are out. US Steel (X) reports.
On Friday, November 1 at 8:30 AM, the October Nonfarm Payroll Report is released. AbbVie (ABBV) and ExxonMobile (XOM) report.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I’ll be driving back home from Lake Tahoe. I wonder if I’ll make it.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Publishing magnate and self-described populist William Randolph Hearst was a deep admirer of Adolph Hitler and did not shy away from using his newspapers as a de-facto mouthpiece spouting off der Fuhrer's propaganda.
Hearst created content sympathizing with the Nazi ethos and even mobilized an embedded secret agent from the German government to act as a correspondent that followed hot, daily scoops inside Germany.
Hearst also used his publishing clout to pull the strings in the 1932 presidential election backing candidate John Nance Garner or "Cactus Jack" who later agreed to be Franklin D. Roosevelt's running mate.
The fusion of politics and media has been chiseled into human DNA since antiquity. However, the purpose of newspapers has evolved significantly since it became impossible to break even about 10 years ago.
Print newspapers are a lot like the United States Postal Service (USPS) - it specializes in losing money.
However, the (USPS) was never politicized as was the publishing industry until the administration managed to commingle the loss-making mail outfit and Amazon as a joint problem roiling society.
The politicization comes at a cost to society.
All the well-intentioned journalists involved in earnest and quality journalism lose out because the new normal for newspapers has evolved into a William Hearst-like blatant tool promoting targeted interests.
Do you ever wonder why the Washington Post hardly ever publishes content harmful to the image and interests of Amazon?
Because it is owned by the same man, Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon (AMZN) in 1994, as he cruised in his car cross-country from New York to Seattle where he would establish his tech empire.
Effectively, Jeff Bezos has the ear of each corner of the political power grid in Washington and even more so as he establishes another Amazon headquarter in the state capitol.
And while the administration attacked Bezos as a job destroyer repeatedly, Amazon has in fact been the largest private job CREATOR in the U.S. It added a staggering 130,000 new jobs in 2017, and an eye-popping 560,000 jobs over the past 10 years.
Laurene Powell Jobs, widow to Steve Jobs, acquire the Boston-based American magazine The Atlantic.
The Atlantic earns more than $10 million per year in revenue and lures in over 33 million readers per month.
Billionaire biotech investor Patrick Soon-Shiong reached a deal with Tribune Publishing Co. (TPCO), a portfolio of a vast array of various legacy media assets, to take over the Los Angeles Times and San Diego Union-Tribune for $500 million.
Tribune Publishing Co is a potential investment for SoftBanks' (SFTBY) Masayoshi Son, looking to scoop up parts of the extensive portfolio.
Private equity group Apollo and media firm Gannett Company are also in the mix to acquire Tribune Publishing Co
Some of Tribune Publishing Co.'s crown assets are the Chicago Tribune, the New York Daily News, and the Baltimore Sun among other regional newspapers with a large audience base.
The courting of these news media assets comes at a time when Google (GOOGL) is funding a project to automate more than 30,000 stories per month for the local media as a cost-effective way to advance the business model.
Quality journalism written by a human is the last thing in which these mega-tech companies are interested.
Tech is about automating and then scaling the automation. This bodes ill for personalized authors, and newspaper journalists are the lowest rung on the totem pole. They will be the first to be replaced by automation.
The first thought that came into my head when I heard about SoftBank's vision fund swooping in for another company was data grab.
We have seen this story time and time again.
Newspapers and how an online subscriber behaves on a digital newspaper platform offer valuable data points unfound elsewhere.
The data will reveal the political ideas, topics of interest, and other sensitive information deduced into a comprehensive data profile.
Effectively, a company such as SoftBank will be able to create a functional shadow profile for almost anyone.
The concept of shadow profiling emerged from the acrimony of Mark Zuckerberg's testimony in Washington and could be the next point of heated contention.
What are shadow profiles?
Shadow profiles are digital profiles crafted from data not directly handed over to Facebook (FB) by the user.
This data is extracted through fringe third parties, other friends on Facebook if they post content unique to you, and specifically through the "find your friends" function that recommends the uploading of an entire digital address book giving Facebook access to everyone you know.
Scarily, there is no opt-out for shadow profiling, and there probably won't be another congressional testimony about this topic anytime soon.
If Facebook wanted to turn into the FBI, it would be easy.
The treasure trove of data would give insight on the subtle nuances of authentic human behavior and how to best manipulate it.
This artificial profile would seem real.
If you are an Android user like most of the world, Google could fill out the most comprehensive profile with a high degree of accuracy on most people.
The scandalous bit about shadow profiling is that these profiles are whipped up even if a user has never signed up for Facebook.
Shadow profiling, along with other data, becomes more precise as the volume of data piles up. To understand the behavior, trends, and tastes of most of the world's population is incredibly valuable.
Facebook could use this shadow profiling data to understand the wide range of non-Facebook user behavior.
This way of monetizing data would be highly illegal if leaked to an actionable third party and would be significantly worse than the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
This data should be deleted immediately, but Facebook has a backdoor way to keep the data in the system.
If Facebook got slammed for data leakage then others are in danger, too. That's because Facebook is not the only player mining data for money.
It wouldn't be surprising if other large-cap tech companies started to create these shadow profiles to get dirt on their competitors as well as other use cases.
Tech is evolving at such a fast pace. It subconsciously encourages the never-give-up mentality that coerces firms to stay one step ahead which Amazon has been able to do since its inception.
Newspaper companies are next in line to be absorbed by large-cap techs continuously expanding web assets that hyper-focus on exponential data generation.
These newspapers will defend tech's interests in the economy similar to how newspapers were used as William Hearst's rallying cry for politics.
Jeff Bezos has chosen silence to react to the administration's vendetta against him but he could easily mobilize his assets to protect Amazon's interests.
Bezos just shrugs his shoulders and goes about his day because he knows Washington cannot do anything to prevent Amazon's dominance at the top of the tech food chain.
Better take the high road.
Not only do these big tech companies know who you talk to, what you buy, and where you are, but now they are given deeper access into the identity of users.
Be on the lookout for these assets to get cherry-picked and look forward to reading your future newspaper owned by Google, Facebook, and the usual cast of characters.
Stay away from legacy newspaper stocks. Only weigh up the media stocks that have already pivoted to the online streaming business model of scaling original premium content.
Anti-A.I. physicist Professor Stephen Hawking was a staunch supporter of preserving human interests against the future existential threat from machines and artificial intelligence (A.I.).
He was diagnosed with motor neuron disease, more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease in 1963 at the age of 21 and sadly passed away March 14, 2018 at the age of 76.
Famed for his work on black holes, Professor Hawking represented the human quest to maintain its superiority against quickly advancing artificial acculturation.
His passing was a huge loss for mankind as his voice was a deterrent to A.I.'s relentless march to supremacy. He was one of the few who had the authority to opine on these issues.
Gone is a voice of reason.
Critics have argued that living with A.I. poses a red alert threat to privacy, security, and society as a whole. Unfortunately, those most credible and knowledgeable about A.I. are tech firms.
They have shown that policing themselves on this front is remarkably unproductive.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook (FB), has labeled naysayers as "irresponsible" and dismissed the threat. After failing to prevent Russian interference in the last election, he is exhibiting the same defensive posture translating into a de facto admission of guilt. His track record of shirking accountability is becoming a trend leading him to allow politicians to post untrue marketing material for the 2020 U.S. election.
Share prices will materially nosedive if A.I. is stonewalled and development stunted. Many CEOs who stake careers on doubling or tripling down on A.I. cannot see it die out. There is too much money to lose – even for Mark.
The world will see major improvements in the quality of life in the next 10 years. But there is another side to the coin which Zuckerberg and company refuse to delve into...the dark side of technology.
Tesla's (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has shared his anxiety about robots flipping the script on humans. Elon acknowledges that A.I. and autonomous vehicles are important factors in the battle for new technology. The winner is yet to be determined as China has bet the ranch with unlimited resources from the help of Chairman Xi and state sponsored institutions.
The quagmire with China has been squarely centered around the great race for technological supremacy.
A.I. is the ultimate X factor in this race and whoever can harness and develop the fastest will win.
Musk has hinted that robots and humans could merge into one species in the future. Is this the next point of competition among tech companies? The future is murky at best.
Hawking's premise that evolution has inbuilt greed can be found in the underpinnings of America's economic miracle.
Wall Street has bred a culture that is entirely self-serving regardless of the bigger system in which it finds itself.
Most of us are participating in this perpetual money game chase because our system treats it as a natural part of life. A.I. will help a select few do well in this paper chase to the detriment of the majority.
Quarterly earnings performance is paramount for CEOs. Return value back to shareholders or face the sack in the morning. It's impossible to convince anyone that America's capitalist model is deteriorating in the greatest bull market of all time.
Wall Street has an insatiable hunger for cutting-edge technology from companies that sequentially beat earnings and raise guidance. Flourishing technology companies enrich the participants creating a Teflon-like resistance to downside market risk.
The issue with Professor Hawking's work is that his timeframe is too far in the future. Professor Hawking was probably correct, but it will take 25 years to prove it.
The world is quickly changing as science fiction becomes reality.
People on Wall Street are a product of the system in place and earn a tremendous amount of money because they proficiently execute a specialized job. Traders are busy focusing on how to move ahead of the next guy.
Firms building autonomous cars are free to operate as is. Hyper-accelerating technology spurs on the development of A.I., machine learning, and enhanced algorithms. Record profits will topple and investors will funnel investments back into an even narrower grouping of technology stocks after the weak hands are flushed out.
Professor Hawking said we need to explore our technological capabilities to the fullest in order to avoid extinction. In 2018, exploring these new capabilities still equals monetizing through the medium of products and services.
This is all bullish for equities as the leading companies associated with A.I. to reap the benefits.
And let me remind you that technology is still the least regulated industry on the planet even with all the recent hoopla.
It is having its cake and is eating it too. Hence, technology is starting to cross over into other industries demonstrating the powerful footprint tech has extracted in economics and the stock market.
The only solution is keeping companies accountable by a function of law or creating a third-party task force to regulate A.I.
In 2019, the thought of overseeing robots sounds crazy.
The future will be here sooner than you think.
If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.
You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape or form.
Microsoft's (MSFT) pivot to its Azure enterprise business has sent its stock skyward, and it is poised to rake in more than $100 billion in cloud revenue over the next 10 years.
Microsoft's share of the cloud market rose and is catching up to Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Amazon leads the cloud industry and still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.
Amazon (AMZN) relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes 73% to Amazon's total operating income.
Total revenue for just the AWS division is an annual $5.5 billion business and would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.
Cloud revenue is even starting to account for a noticeable share of Apple's (AAPL) earnings, which has previously bet the ranch on hardware products.
The future is about the cloud.
These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day. If you work in Silicon Valley, you can triple that figure.
So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.
Think of this as a cloud primer.
It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations. Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest growing companies in the world.
Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that's where I come in.
Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.
They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.
As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.
The most important features of cloud storage are:
1) It is a service provided by an external provider.
2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.
3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.
4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.
Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.
- No Maintenance
Many companies regardless of their size prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.
However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.
Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.
Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.
- Greater Flexibility
Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them telecommute. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?
Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees. According to a recent survey, 79% of respondents already work outside of their office some of the time, while another 60% would switch jobs if offered this flexibility.
With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.
It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.
- Better Collaboration and Communication
In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.
For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.
These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.
- Data Protection
Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.
The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.
It's best to move data to the cloud to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.
This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.
- Lower Overhead
The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.
By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.
Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.
In a new study, 44% of Millennials plan to move out of the Bay Area in the “next few years.”
In the same study, 8% of Millennials will move out of the Californian tech peninsula within the next 365 days.
Tech companies are in serious danger of stagnating because they won’t be able to hire the talent needed to keep their companies afloat while the number of foreign HB-1 visas has dried up.
All of this could come home to roost and early cracks can be found in the local housing migratory trends.
The robust housing demand, lack of housing supply, mixed with the avalanche of inquisitive tech money has made living with a roof over your head a tall order.
The area has also become squalid like some third world countries due to the homeless problem that is growing faster than any software company.
Salesforce Founder and CEO Marc Benioff has lamented that San Francisco, where ironically he is from, is a diabolical “train wreck” and urged fellow tech CEOs to “walk down the street” and see it with their own eyes to observe the numerous homeless encampments dotted around the city limits.
The leader of Salesforce doesn’t mince his words when he talks and beelines to the heart of the issues.
In condemning large swaths of the beneficiaries of the Silicon Valley ethos, he has signaled that it won’t be smooth sailing forever.
He has also urged companies to transform their business model if they are irresponsible with user data.
The tech lash could get messier this year because companies that go rogue with personal data will face a cringeworthy reckoning as government policy stiffens.
I have walked around the streets of San Francisco myself.
Places around Powell Bart station close to the Tenderloin district are eyesores littered with used syringes that lay in the gutter.
South of Market Street (SoMa) isn’t a place I would want to barbecue on a terrace either.
Summing it up, the unlimited tech talent reservoir that Silicon Valley gorged on isn’t flowing anymore because people don’t want to live there anymore.
This is exactly what Apple’s $1 billion investment into a new tech campus in Austin, Texas, and Amazon adding 500 employees in Nashville, Tennessee are all about.
Apple also added numbers in San Diego, Atlanta, Culver City, and Boulder just to name a few.
Apple currently employs 90,000 people in 50 states and is in the works to create 20,000 more jobs in the US by 2023.
Most of these new jobs won’t be in Silicon Valley.
Jobs simply flock to where the talent is.
The tables have turned but that is what happens when the heart of western tech becomes unlivable to the average tech worker earning $150,000 per year.
Sacramento has experienced a dizzying rise of newcomers from the Bay Area escaping the sky-high housing.
Millennials are reaching that age of family formation and they are fleeing to places that are affordable and possible to take the first step onto the property ladder.
These are some of the practical issues that tech has failed to address, and part of the problem with unfettered capitalism which doesn’t consider quality of life.
No wonder why Silicon Valley real estate has dropped in the past year, people and their paychecks are on the way out.
Global Market Comments
October 1, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAUNCHING THE NEW MAD HEDGE BIOTECH AND HEALTHCARE LETTER)
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)
Global Market Comments
September 20, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 18 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (FDX), (FB), (HYG), (JNK), (EEM), (BABA), (JD), (TBT), (FXE), (UUP), (AMZN), (FB), (DIS), (MSFT), (USO), (INDU),
(THE GREAT TRADING GURU SPEAKS)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader September 18 Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: What would happen to the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) if the Fed does not lower rates?
A: My bet is that it would immediately have a selloff—probably several points—but after that, recession worries will take bond prices up again and yields down. I don’t think we have seen the final lows in interest rates by a long shot. That’s why I bought the (TLT) last week.
Q: Is it good to buy FedEx (FDX) considering the 13% fall today?
A: I use the 3-day rule on these situations. That's how long it takes for the dust to settle from an earnings shock like this and find the real price. The problem with FedEx is that it’s a great early recession predictor. When the number of delivered packages decreases, it’s always an indicator that the economy as a whole is slowing down, which we know has been happening. It’s one of the most cyclical stocks out there, therefore one of the most dangerous. I wouldn’t bother with FedEx right now. Go take a long nap instead.
Q: Would you be a buyer of Facebook (FB) here, given they seem to have weathered all the recent attacks from Washington?
A: Not here in particular, but I would buy it 20% down when it gets to the bottom edge of its upward channel—it still looks like it’s going crazy. They’re literally renting or buying buildings to hire an additional 50,000 people in San Francisco anticipating huge growth of their business, so that’s a better indicator of the future of Facebook than anything.
Q: Will junk bonds be more in demand now that rates are cratering?
A: Junk bonds (HYG), (JNK) are driven more by the stock market than the bond market, as you can see in the huge rally we just had. Junk bonds are great because their default ratios are usually far below that which the interest rate implies, but you really have to trade them like stocks. Think of them as preferred stocks with really high dividends. When the stock market tops, so will junk bonds. Remember in 2008, junk yields got all the way up to 15% compared to today’s 5.6%.
Q: What will happen to emerging markets (EEM) as rates lower?
A: If lower interest rates bring a weaker US dollar, that would be very positive for emerging markets over the long term and they would be a great buy. However, emerging markets will take the hardest hit if we actually do go into a recession. So, I would pass for now.
Q: What are your thoughts on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD)?
A: They are great for the long term. However, expect a lot of volatility in the short term. As long as the trade war is going on, these are going to be hard to trade until we get a settlement. (JD) is already up 50% this year but is still down 40% from pre trade war levels. These things will all be up 20-30% when that happens. If you can take the heat until then, they would probably be okay for a long-term portfolio globally diversified.
Q: What do you have to say about the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT)—the short bond ETF?
A: If you have a position, I’d be selling now. We just had a massive 20%, 4-point rally from $22 to $27 and now would be a good time to take a profit, or at least get out closer to your cost. The zero interest rates story is not over yet.
Q: Would you short the US dollar?
A: I would most likely short it against the euro (FXE), which now has a massive economic stimulus and quantitative easing program coming into play which should be positive for it and negative for the US dollar (UUP). That’s most likely why the euro has stabilized over the last couple of weeks. That said, the dollar has been unexpected high all year despite falling interest rates so I have been avoiding the entire foreign exchange space. I try to stay away from things I don’t understand.
Q: If all our big tech September vertical bull call spreads are in the money, what should we do?
A: You do nothing. They all expire at the Friday close in two trading days. Your broker should automatically use your long call position to cover your short call position and credit your account with the total profit on the following Monday, as well as release the margin for holding that position. After that, we’ll probably wait for another good entry point on all the same names, (AMZN), (FB), (DIS), (MSFT).
Q: If the US fires a cruise missile at Iran, how would the market react?
A: It would selloff pretty big—markets hate wars. And the US wouldn’t send one missile at Iran; it would be more like 100, probably aimed at what little nuclear facilities they have. I doubt that is going to happen. The world has figured out that Trump is a wimp. He talks big but there is never any action or follow through. Inviting the Taliban to Camp David while they were still blowing up our people? Really?
Q: Will the housing market turn on the turbochargers after this dip in rates?
A: It wouldn't turn on the turbochargers, but it might stabilize the market because money is available now at unprecedentedly low interest rates. However, we still have the loss of the SALT deductions—the state and local taxes and real estate taxes that came in with the Trump tax bill. Since then, real estate has been either unchanged or has fallen on both the East and West coast where the highest priced houses are. It’s the most expensive houses that take the loss of the SALT deduction the hardest. Don’t expect any movement in these markets until the SALT deduction comes back, probably in 16 months.
Q: What catalyst do you think would cause a 10% correction in the next 2-3 months?
A: Trump basically saying “screw you” to the Chinese—a tweet saying he’s going to bring another round of tariff increases. That’s worth a minimum of 2,000 points in the Dow Average (INDU), or about 7% percent. Either that or no move in Fed interest rates—that would also create a big selloff. My guess is that and adverse development in the trade war will be what does it. That’s why my positions are so small now.
Q: We have a big short position in the United States Oil Fund (USO) now. Are you going to run this into expiration until October $18?
A: Even though oil has already collapsed by 10% since we put this position on last Friday, premiums in oil options are still close to record levels. So, it pays us to hang on for the time decay. The world is still massively oversupplied in oil and the Saudis were able to bring half of the lost production back on in a day. Oil will keep falling unless there is another attack and it is unlikely we will see one again on this scale. And, we only have 20 more days to go to capture the full 14.8% profit.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
