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Tag Archive for: (ARKK)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 18 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the May 18 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley.

Q: When do you see the banks returning to glory?

A: When recession fears go away, which should happen this summer. A recession will either have come and gone, or we will have confirmation by the end of summer that there is no recession in sight for the next few years at least. This will likely trigger a monster rally in the banks, which could all jump 50% from here. Obviously, Warren Buffet is putting his money where his mouth is by loading up on Citibank (C) yesterday. This would take us to new all-time highs by the end of the year. So, again, use these down-1000-point days to go cherry-picking among the generals who have been executed. If that’s not mixing metaphors, I don’t know what is!

Q: Should I listen to CNBC?

A: No, do not listen to the talking heads on TV. They are on TV because they don’t know how to make money. If they did know how to make money, they’d be locked up in a dark basement somewhere like me, grinding out millions for their firms. In fact, watching TV is the perfect money destruction machine because on down days, they bring out the uber bears, and on up days they bring up the hyper bulls. They are trying to egg you to get you to do the exact opposite of what you should be doing. They’re not interested in you making money; they’re interested in getting traffic on their websites and making money for themselves. CNBC can be highly dangerous to your financial health.

Q: Will we get stagflation?

A: No, because I think that once the year-on-year comparisons kick in—literally in a month or two—inflation will drop from the current 8.3% to down maybe 4% by the end of the year. That also is another factor in your monster second-half rally.

Q: Do you think the bounce in the market yesterday is the beginning of an upward trend or a dead cat bounce?

A: Definitely a dead cat bounce. I expect we’ll keep chopping around in the current range for the next 3, 4, and 5 months, and then we catapult into a monster year-end rally. That is a typical bottoming-type process.

Q: Is the wisdom “Go away in May” still alive or is your best bet that this year may prove different and the market goes up in the latter part of the year?

A: Actually, you should have gone away in November. That’s when all tech stocks peaked; only energy went up after that. If you’d gone away in November and said “come back in August” that would have been a good strategy because I think that’s when the year-end rally begins. If anything, May could be the bottom of the entire move.

Q: Is it time for LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities)?

A: Not yet—it’s too soon for LEAPS territory. You only want to do LEAPS when you are on a sustained long-term uptrend in a stock. We are nowhere near sustained anything, we are still in a bottoming phase, and could be there for months. At the end of those months is when we’ll be looking at LEAPS, where you can double your money every 6 months.

Q: Is it time to start nibbling on China stocks (FXI) now that COVID news is marginally better?

A: I’m going to avoid Chinese stocks because the American ones are so much better. You want to buy the quality at the discount, not the marginal, high-risk political footballs at a discount. And China will remain high-risk as long as they are abandoning capitalism. If you have to buy one Chinese stock, I would say Alibaba (BABA); you could get a double on that. But remember it is a high-risk trade—if the Chinese government wants to roll Jack Ma up in a carpet and kidnap him to Western Chinese re-education camp, the stock will get slaughtered. And that’s been happening increasingly with the heads of major companies in the Middle Kingdom.

Q: When this current route comes to an end, should we look to enter the market with 50% margin on stocks like Tesla (TSLA)?

A: It’s never sensible to go to 50% margin because if the stocks drop 50%, you are completely wiped out—you’ve lost everything. Plus, coming back from a loss is one thing; coming back from zero is impossible. So, I would not recommend that. You might do a safe stock like Apple (APPL), with a 2% dividend, and then at least you’re getting a double dividend. You only do the 50% margin on the safest, high dividend stocks.

Q: Amazon (AMZN) is on its way down. What is your expectation for the $3200/$3400 vertical bull call spread in January 2023?

A: I think you could make money on that. It may not be the full amount of the spread, but you’ll definitely get a big increase from current levels, because when we do get a second half rally, it will be tech-led, and Amazon has already had a horrific decline. What you might consider is rolling your strike down, taking the loss on the 3200/3400 and rolling down to like a $2,000/$2,200 in twice the size, and you’ll make your money back that way.

Q: For those of us thinking about LEAPS, how should we start to buy in—20, 30, 50% right now?

A: Well, first of all, you only do them on down days like today, when the market is down 800, and you scale in. 20% now, 20% higher or lower, and 20% again higher or lower. But you really want to be saving cash for days like this because You want to feel smarter than everybody else, and they absolutely will hit any bid on a down day, and that's where your LEAPS fills are really excellent, is on a down day like this.

Q: Can the Fed avoid another policy mistake? Because it seems that not only are they heading for high inflation, but layoffs are coming as well, and even with that I’m sure they will perform a soft landing of sorts.

A: For sure, when you take massive amounts of stimulus out of the economy, as we have in the last year, that is recessionary. In fact, the US government is close to running a balance budget right now because Biden can’t get anything through Congress other than money for Ukraine. Good for Ukraine economy, not for ours. And yes, they can do a soft landing, but has it ever been done before? No. Though this is the Fed that just keeps on surprising, so who knows. In the meantime, I'm willing to trade the ranges, and that may be all you get to do for a while.

Q: Target (TGT) shares are down 25%, as they cited higher costs that will result in rising prices for their customers. Would you buy the dip?

A: No, I generally don’t like retailers anyway. It’s a business that operates on a 2% profit margin. I like 40 or 50% profit margin businesses—those tend to be technology stocks.

Q: Would you buy retailers going into a recession?

A: No, that’s the worst thing in the world to own.

Q: Could Fluor Corp (FLR) be a Ukraine infrastructure stock?

A: Yes, once the war ends there will be a massive effort to rebuild Ukraine. Every company in the world will be involved, and Fluor and Bechtel will be the biggest, though Fluor is the only one where you can buy the stock. We already have the money to do this with all of the money that was seized from Russia. I predict discount sales on mega yachts.

Q: Why do you think all that money is going to Ukraine?

A: Because a weakened Russia is in the national interest of the United States, and it’s better that their soldiers are doing the dying than ours. I’ve done the latter and definitely prefer the former, using the other country's’soldiers as cannon fodder.

Q: On down days like today, should I be putting on one-month trades like the June options?

A: Yes, because the minimizes your risk and cuts the cost of mistakes. Waiting for the second half of the year when we get a prolonged uptrend to look at LEAPS—that is the correct way to do it.

Q: Over the next 12 months, do you think the S&P 500 will outperform Nasdaq?

A: No—for the next 3 months the S&P 500 will outperform NASDAQ. After that, NASDAQ will become an enormous outperformer for the rest of the decade. So, choose your entry points wisely.

Q: Do you think that housing is peaking out and will start to decline?

A: No, we still have a long-term structural shortage of 10 million homes in the US and I think we will flatline housing for years until we catch up with that shortfall.

Q: What are your thoughts on the Metaverse?

A: Too soon. Right now, the Metaverse involves spending only—no revenues. It could be years before you actually see any profits. So that’s why I'm avoiding Meta or Facebook (FB). But then, you could have made the same argument about the internet 25 years ago and semiconductors 50 years ago. If you waited long enough, however, you obviously made a fortune.

Q: China is hoarding 69% of their wheat reserves. Is this because they plan to invade Taiwan?

A: No, it’s because there’s a global food crisis going on. Many countries, like India, have banned exports of food to protect themselves. People miss this about China: China will never have a war or invade anybody, because the second they do, their food supplies get cut off by us, who are the world’s largest producer of food. Plus, their trade would get shut off to pay for it, so they can’t buy it from somewhere else, and that’s done with us also. So, they need to be in our good graces in order to eat. That's the bottom line and that’s why Taiwan will never get invaded. Russia’s economy can operate independently for a while, but China’s can’t.

Q: Is the baby food shortage further evidence of a food crisis?

A: No, the baby formula crisis is being caused by a monopoly of three companies that control 100% of the baby food market; and the largest of these companies, accounting for a 40% market share of the baby food making, is producing baby food that is poisonous. That's why they got shut down. This has been going on for years, and for some reason, they got a free pass on regulation and inspections by the previous administration, which is ending now, and all of a sudden we’re finding out that 40% of the country’s baby food is contaminated and is being pulled off the market. So, it really has nothing to do with the global food crisis. That’s more related to Climate change—surprise, surprise—as it’s not raining in the right places like California, the war in Ukraine, which removed 13% of the world’s calories practically overnight.

Q: Should I bet the farm here with the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK)? I like Cathie Woods’ bet on innovation or five-year time horizon. It’s a great thing, don’t you think?

A: Not so great when you drop 70% in the last year. And it is a high-risk bet that of her ten largest holding companies, you only need one of them to work for the fund to bring in a decent return. Of course, you may have to write off nine other companies to do that. But yes, it’s a great thing to own on the way up, not so great on the way down. I know some people who started scaling into ARK in November and came to regret it. I would wait on it—this is your highest leverage technology play, and if you really want some punishment, there’s a hedge fund that’s bringing out a 2X long ARK fund in the next couple of months. Then it’s basically option money you’re throwing out. If you want to put some money in that, you could get a 10x on the 2x ETF if you’re playing a recovery in ARK. So watch it; don’t touch it now because ARK is having another heart attack today, but something to consider if you like gambling.

Q: I am full up with a thousand shares of PayPal (PYPL). It’s now down 76%. What should I do?

A: I recommend you learn the art of stop losses. I stopped out of this thing last fall, and it’s continued to go down virtually every day. Whenever you buy a new position, automatically enter into your spreadsheet your stop loss for that position. Because things can drop by 80 or 90% and you work too hard for your money to throw it away on these big losses.

Q: What do you think about Steve Wynn and Wynn Hotels?

A: I’d be buying down here down 62%; it was announced today that Steve Wynn has secretly been acting as an agent for the Chinese government where (WYNN) has a major part of its operations. Who knew? With all those high rollers being flown in on private jets from China, sitting at the tables in the closed rooms. So yes, this is a recovery play and it will do just as well as all other recovery plays, but remember it’s a China recovery play. And I think, in any case, his ex-wife owns a big part of the company anyway. So I don’t think Steve Wynn is that closely connected with Wynn hotels because of past transgressions with the female staff.

Q: Is it time to scale into Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)?

A: I’d say yes. On a longer-term view, I expect (FCX) to go to $100. And for those who have the May $32/$35 call spread that expires on Friday, my bet is that you get the max profit—but you may not sleep before then.

Q: What do you have to say about a post-Putin scenario and impact on the market?

A: The day Putin dies of a heart attack, you can count on the market being up 10%, if that happens right now—less if it happens at a later date. But it would be hugely bullish for the entire global stock market, and oil would also collapse, which is why I refuse to put on oil plays here. That is a risk. Putin can give up, have an accident, or get overthrown. When the Russian people see their standard of living decline by 90%, this is a country that has a long history of revolutions, putting their leaders in front of firing squads and throwing the bodies down wells. So, if I were Putin, I wouldn't be sleeping very well right now.

Q: What's the reason for air tickets (UAL), (ALK), (DAL) going up sharply?

A: 1. Shortage of airplanes 2. Soaring fuel costs 3. Labor shortages and strikes 4. It is all proof of an economy that is definitely NOT going into recession. 

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

With Lieutenant Uhuru

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/John-Thomas-with-Lt-Uhuru.jpg 353 434 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-20 16:02:182022-05-20 17:37:50May 18 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 11, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

TECH DESERVES WHAT IT DESERVES)
(RBLX), (ARKK), (ROKU), (TDOC), (ZM), (TSLA), (GM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-11 17:04:262022-05-11 18:22:25May 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Tech Deserves What It Deserves

Tech Letter

A bear market rally in tech would be an overwhelmingly healthy signal that the financial system is working in an orderly fashion.

Yet, as I say that, a looming recession inches closer.

How do I know that?

That was my first reaction when my eyes were stung by the headline of 8.3% inflation.

Sure, not a 10, but it is emblematic of the ongoing inflation concerns with items such as airplane tickets up 18% year over year in price.

Remember the consensus was that inflation pressures are trending towards peaking, potentially setting up for a nice bear market rally.

That narrative hit another catch-22, not as bad as it could have been, but clearly not great and prices biting at the backs of consumers.

The hope that inflation will be crammed back into the genie bottle is not going to happen until later this year and not for the right reasons.

Simply because comparables become easier to beat year over year.

Like I have mentioned in past tech letters, high-growth tech stocks are most sensitive to the fluctuation in rates and investors should be nowhere near growth funds like Cathy Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).

Another head-scratching move was ARK’s Cathy Wood selling Tesla (TSLA) shares and rolling them into GM (GM).

This is for the lady who likes to tell us that we aren’t “doing the research.”

Betting against Elon Musk is a fool’s game.

When it comes to EVs, I would put money on Musk to defy any odds.

Tesla will outperform GM, especially amid a backdrop of lithium prices spiking and supply chain issues going haywire.

Musk is simply the anointed guy that knows how to work miracles.

He only developed the EV industry as he saw fit, invented reusable space rockets, cut the price of space exploration by 10, and reimagined tunneling construction technology.

And by the way, his Neuralink brain interface company is working on implanting chips in human brains so we don’t need to use our fingers on keyboard anymore.

I wouldn’t want to compete with this man and to believe that GM will be able to nimbly outmaneuver Musk who has the audacity to aggressively solve anything no matter how many people he pisses off is not an incremental bet on “innovation” that Wood likes to tout she is participating in.

Neither is the purchase of Roku (ROKU), Zoom (ZM), or Roblox (RBLX) which have all tanked since she put new money to work in them in late April.

Inflation at 8.3% means that the real rate of inflation is still -7.55% and until that’s addressed, any bear market rally will be viciously sold breaching further levels down below.

The carnage in the tech world is indicative at the dregs of the barrel.

Tech IPOs are toxic.

Market for new issues has been bereft throughout the first four-plus months of this year, and nothing that would move the needle is on the tech IPO radar for the duration of the second quarter.

Companies that were aiming to go out in the first half of 2022 have no appetite to continue down that path because there simply won’t be a bid.

Going public today would require a complete revaluation of their business and leave many late-stage investors and employees with out-of-money stock.

Grocery deliverer Instacart is the only company in that class that’s been forthright with its slowing valuation. In March, the company said it cut its valuation by about 40% to $24 billion.

That’s how bad it is out there at the bush league end of the tech sector and many of these stocks that are public such as Teladoc are down 80%.

I do believe that many of these loss-making growth techs are rightfully down 80%.

They had time to show a profit and they failed in the allotted amount of time they were given.

Every window closes and the market moves forward with or without them.

In the near term, I am bearish on the market but I do believe we are oversold which could feed into a dead cat bounce to sell on.

 

inflation

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-11 17:02:352022-05-27 17:24:00Tech Deserves What It Deserves
Douglas Davenport

May 11, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JOIN ME ON CUNARD’S MS QUEEN VICTORIA
FOR MY JULY 9, 2022 SEMINAR AT SEA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-05-11 12:05:442022-05-11 12:35:47May 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 10, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 10, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MAY 4 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (ROM), (ARKK), (LMT), (RTN), (USO), (AAPL), (BRKB), (TLT), (TBT), (HYG), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-10 09:04:052022-05-10 12:20:06May 10, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 4 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the May 4 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley.

Q: How confident are you to jump into stocks right now?

A: Not confident at all. If you look at all of my positions, they’re very deep in the money and fully hedged—I have longs offsetting my shorts—and everything I own expires in 12 days. So, I’m expecting a little rally still here—maybe 1,000 points after the Fed announcement, and then we could go back to new lows.

Q: Would you scale into ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) if you’ve been holding it for several years?

A: I would—in the $40s, the (ROM) is very tempting. On like a 5-year view, you could probably go from the $40s to $150 or $200. But don’t expect to sleep very much at night if you take this position, because this is volatile as all get out. It's not exactly clear whether we have bottomed out in tech or not, especially small tech, which the (ROM) owns a lot of.

Q: Is it time to buy the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) with the 5-year view?

A: Yes. I mentioned the math on that a couple of days ago in my hot tips. Out of 10 positions, you only need one to go up ten times to make the whole thing worth it, and you can write off everything else. Again, we’re looking at venture capital type math on these leverage tech plays, and that makes them very attractive; however I’m always trying to get the best possible price, so I haven’t done it yet.

Q: We’ve been hit hard with the tech trade alerts since March. Any thoughts?

A: Yes, we’re getting close to a bottom here. The short squeeze on the Chinese tech trade alerts that we had out was a one-day thing. However, when you get these ferocious short covering rallies at the bottom—we certainly got one on Monday in the S&P 500 (SPY) —it means we’re close to a bottom. So, we may go down maybe 4%-6% and test a couple more times and have 500- or 1000-point rallies right after that, which is a sign of a bottom. There’s a 50% chance the bottom was at $407 on Monday, and 50% chance we go down $27 more points to $380.

Q: Is the Roaring 20s hypothesis still on?

A: Yes absolutely; technology is still hyper-accelerating, and that is the driver of all of this. And while tech stocks may get cheap, the actual technology underlying the stocks is still increasing at an unbelievable rate. You just have to be here in Silicon Valley to see it happening.

Q: Do you like defense stocks?

A: Yes, because companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTN)  operate on very long-term contracts that never go away—they basically have guaranteed income from the government—meeting the supply of F35 fighters for example, for 20 years. Certainly, the war in Ukraine has increased defense spending; not just the US but every country in the world that has a military. So all of a sudden, everybody is buying everything—especially the javelin missiles which are made in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. The Peace Dividend is over and all defense companies will benefit from that.

Q: Is Buffet wrong to go into energy right now? How will Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) perform if energy tanks?

A: Well first of all, energy is only a small part of his portfolio. Any losses in energy would be counterbalanced by big gains in his banking holdings, which are among his largest holdings, and in Apple (AAPL). Buffet does what I do, he cross-hedges positions and always has something that’s going up. I think Berkshire is still a buy. And he's not buying oil, per say; he is buying the energy producing companies which right now have record margins. Even if oil goes back down to $50 a barrel, these companies will still keep making money. However, he can wait 5 years for things to work for him and I can’t; I need them to work in 5 minutes.

Q: You must have suffered big oil (USO) losses in the past, right?

A: Actually I have not, but I have seen other people go bankrupt on faulty assumptions of what energy prices are going to do. In the 1990s Gulf War, someone made an enormous bet that oil would go up when the actual shooting started. But of course, it didn’t, it was a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. Energy prices collapsed and this hedge fund had a 100% loss in one day. That is what keeps me from going long energy at the top. And the other evidence that the energy companies themselves believe this is true is that they’re refusing to invest in their own businesses, they won’t expand capacity even though the government is begging them to do so.

Q: Why should we stay short the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) instead of selling out for a profit or holding on due to your statement that the TLT will go down to $105/$110?

A; If you have the December LEAPS, which most of you do, there’s still a 10% profit in that position running it seven more months. In this day and age, 7% is worth going for because there isn’t anything else to buy right now, except very aggressive, very short term, front month options, which I've been doing. So, the only reason to sell the TLT now and take a profit—even though it’s probably the biggest profit of your life—is that you found something better; and I doubt you're finding anything better to do right now than running your short Treasuries.

Q: Are you still short the TLT?

A: Yes, the front months, the Mays, expire in 8 days and I’m running them into expiration.

Q: What will Bitcoin do?

A: It will continue to bounce along a bottom, or maybe go lower as long as liquidity in the financial system is shrinking, which it is now at roughly a $90 billion/month rate. That’s not good for Bitcoin.

Q: Is now the time for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)?

A: Yes, it’s definitely time to nibble here. It’s one of the best companies in the world that’s dropped more than 50%. I think we’d have a final bottom, and then we’re entering a new long term bull market where we’d go into 1-2 year LEAPS.

Q: What do you think of buying the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) junk bond fund here for 6% dividend?

A: If you’re happy with that, I would go for it. But I think junk is going to have a higher dividend yet still. This thing had a dividend in the teens during the financial crisis; I don’t think we’ll get to the teens this time because we don’t have a financial crisis, but 7% or 8% are definitely doable. And then you want to look at the 2x long junk bond special ETFs, because you’re going to get a 16% return on a very boring junk bond fund to own.

Q: What do you think about Amazon (AMZN) at this level?

A: I think it’s too early and it goes lower. Not a good stock to own during recession worries. At some point it’ll be a good buy, but not yet.

Q: Energy is the best sector this year—how long can it keep going?

A: Until we get a recession. By the way, if you want evidence that we’re not in a recession, look at $100/barrel oil. When you get real recessions, oil goes down to 420 or $30….or negative $37 as it did in 2020.  There’s a lot of conflicting data out in the market these days and a lot of conflicting price reactions so you have to learn which ones to ignore.

Q: Should we stay short the (TLT)?

A: Yes, we should. I’m looking for a 3.50% yield this year that should take us down to $105.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com , go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/everest19760012.jpg 640 465 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-05-10 09:02:562022-05-10 12:19:38May 4 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 29, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 29, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TELADOC IMPLODES)
(ARKK), (SARK), (TDOC), (ROKU), (SHOP), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:04:142022-04-29 16:03:32April 29, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Teladoc Implodes

Tech Letter

The Cathie Wood circus keeps making new lows as digital doctor platform Teladoc (TDOC) recorded the biggest drop in shares since its IPO.

At one point, shares were down 45% and this was the day after buying another tranche of over $200 million worth of shares before the earnings came out.

TDOC was a pandemic darling and since then, the stock has done nothing but dive lower.

There is even an inverse ETF to jump on the anti-Cathie Wood bandwagon called Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF (SARK).

SARK is almost up 100% year to date showing that as market conditions distort, traders must distort with them.

To stay long tech growth is like throwing money off an apartment balcony.

The lack of understanding Cathie Woods exhibits about the stock market is hard to fathom.

Her go-to excuse is that others “aren’t doing the research.”

We were smack dab in a low-rate environment for a decade when even marginal tech companies would get the benefit of the doubt.

As the goalposts have moved and narrowed, Wood is still sticking to her 5-year time horizon and still explaining to investors that other analysts “aren’t doing their homework.”

This really is a case of the emperor having no clothes if I have ever seen it.

To add insult to injury, she has gone on public television to speak about how she believes the global economy is experiencing deflationary pressures.

No matter what changes to the trading environment, she sticks to her narrow story of deflation and her 5-year time horizon while her investors lose money.

If that’s not enough, she blames the market for not understanding her ARKK fund which is down more than 50% this year.

She claims that many people are “devaluing innovation” and just do not understand innovation like she does.

With an unrelenting belief in her growth strategy, miraculously, another $1.5 billion of inflows have juiced up her fund in 2022.

There are many out there that still think she is a great money manager after her one call of Tesla going up was correct.

Investors have chosen to back her further even with mounting losses and that has now backfired as ETF ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) appears as if the market has not recognized how smart Cathie Wood is.

ARKK is Teladoc’s largest shareholder with a 12% stake worth.

It’s not just TDOC, but other investments like Roku (ROKU), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), and Shopify (SHOP) whose shares have experienced cataclysmic meltdowns of epic proportions.

Why did TDOC shares perform so poorly?

Higher advertising expenses in the mental health market, as well as an “elongated sales cycle” in chronic conditions as employers and providers of healthcare plans evaluate strategies.

TDOC’s services aren’t as good as first thought.

TDOC also took a $6.6 billion charge for impairment of goodwill, a non-cash charge the company excluded from its adjusted results.

The competition also has increased significantly and many of these first-move advantages are not holding up like they used to in tech.

The recent performance has been met with a bevy of analyst downgrades and tech growth as a sub-sector will have a hard time recovering until a lower interest rate sentiment comes back to sweep up the market.

Still, not a peep out of Cathie Wood on modifying her controversial strategies and that’s when we are staring down a barrel of multiple 50 basis point interest rate rises.

She was photographed partying in the Bahamas at some beach parties the day before the TDOC debacle, apparently, she isn’t bothered that much by her followers losing generation wealth.

If readers want to get back into tech growth after an easing of credit conditions, avoid buying ARKK and just buy a collection of strong tech growth yourself.

 

 

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 16, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE GENIUS AT SOFTBANK GETS EXPOSED)
(SFTBY), (ARKK), (DIDI), (BABA), (CPNG)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 7, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 7, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SHORT TERM PAIN FOR SILICON VALLEY TECH)
(NFLX), (QQQ), (EPAM), (SNAP), (TDOC), (ARKK)

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