Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH MEME MANIA?)
(GME), (AMC), (WISH), (CLOV), (BB)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH MEME MANIA?)
(GME), (AMC), (WISH), (CLOV), (BB)
Although poor long-term investments, meme mania captured the imaginations of short-term traders with its wicked price action.
The counterculture drumbeat of taking down the institutions was then usurped by the meme management who issued shares after any sort of short squeeze.
Onlookers had to know the energy would not last and it is finally dying down.
Euphoric moments minted traders who benefited from unusual price spikes when institutions were caught off guard and had to buy the stock back at outrageous prices.
It appears as if this stage of meme mania is at the dying embers, and a sell the rally pattern has emerged in the past month just as big tech has accelerated its lead over everyone else.
For short-term traders, executing directional bearish bets is still on the table and for long-term buyers, you never should hold any of these following companies.
This type of smash and grab philosophy was just too risky for the Mad Hedge Technology portfolio and we avoided it like the plague.
I saw this more as a byproduct of too much liquidity in the system than anything else.
The stocks which skyrocketed were, in most cases, failed business models and only specific anomalies helped price action spin their way.
Since the volume has fallen off a cliff, the sell the rally would be the logical way to go for all the risk-takers who missed out on the meme mania phenomenon on the way up.
Here are the stocks involved.
Clover Health Investments, Corp. (CLOV) operates as a health insurer. It recently said it would be expanding insurance plans across nine states and more than 200 new counties in a bid to focus on underserved communities. The share price of the firm soared 8% after the announcement.
BlackBerry Limited (BB) provides intelligent security software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. The company leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to deliver solutions in the areas of cybersecurity, safety, and data privacy.
It is placed fourth a list of 10 Reddit’s WallStreetBets meme stocks hedge funds are piling into.
The company’s shares have returned 145% to investors in the past twelve months.
The company announced that the QNX software marketed by the firm was now installed in close to 200 million vehicles worldwide. This is an increase of 20 million compared to last year.
ContextLogic Inc. (WISH) is a California-based mobile ecommerce firm.
It is ranked third on a list of 10 Reddit’s WallStreetBets meme stocks hedge funds are piling into.
On July 6, the company announced that ContextLogic B.V, the Dutch arm of the business, had been granted a payment license for the European Union region. The share price of the firm jumped more than 5% after the announcement, which a company official said was the first step towards becoming a payment service provider in Europe.
GameStop (GME) rose from $4 to $325 and currently sits at $180.
The stock has continued to trend down from $320 after the latest short-squeeze and momentum is strongly biased towards the downside.
The retail company sells video games and has a terrible business model.
The last one is AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC) whose stock went from $2 to $60 and now is back down to $40.
AMC was a headliner disaster during the pandemic because movie theatres were closed and consumers were substituting their services for Netflix or other streaming services.
The Chinese property tycoon Wang Jianlian who bought into AMC before the pandemic was able to exit from his investment with a $675 million gain.
He acquired the company applying $1.9 billion of debt in 2012.
The Wanda Conglomerate was bailed out by the Reddit trading army after his vision of making AMC a “true global cinema operator” fizzled out big time.
The cinema chain reported a net loss of $4.6 billion for 2020, thus it’s stunning that Wang was able to spin such a disastrous investment for a tidy profit.
The AMC stake sale is the latest instance of Wanda offloading assets under pressure from Beijing, which wants Chinese to pare back its overseas holdings and debt.
The company was placed on a watch list by regulators in 2017 along with Anbang Group, Fosun Group, and HNA Group. These privately controlled Chinese conglomerates had accumulated some of the world’s largest debts after snapping up overseas trophy assets, often at premium prices, and were facing significant debt maturities.
Wang got lucky but the annual 2020 losses highlight the extent to how bad these business models are and how fortunate they were to have received a bailout from retail traders.
I believe these stocks are good for a short-term directional bearish bet with a controlled stop-loss strategy if things go sour fast.
None of these are worth owning, there are just too many other items on the menu that are tastier in a roaring U.S. economy.
From a wider-angle lens, the stock frenzy has fueled a record flow of money into the market from retail investors.
Only just last month, traders bought almost $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, the largest amount in a single month since at least 2014.
This surely means that this new source of investment flows has gone into big tech with its huge surges higher.
At some point, capital will find itself in a different part of the equity market again and the Reddit army will be resuscitated basically because too many of them took profits and will be able to roll those profits into new positions.
Don’t get dragged into the mud looking for an easy buck.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 27, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DINOSAURS OF TECH REINVENTING THEMSELVES)
(BB), (AMZN), (BIDU), (GME)
Tech companies change so quickly that sometimes companies have no choice but to reinvent themselves and that is exactly what BlackBerry (BB) has done as their stock has already delivered gains of 190% in 2021.
Historically known as a hardware business, BlackBerry decided to opt out of its legacy operations and elect for a push into enterprise software, internet of things (IoT), and cybersecurity, pivoting away from handsets as that business flagged.
That is where all the serious tech money is these days.
A torrent of positive announcement has rallied investors to this stock with the company announcing an expanded partnership with Baidu (BIDU) that will see it continue working on automated high-definition mapping software that Baidu uses in its autonomous driving technology.
Baidu is a Chinese tech company that is also hoping to reinvent themselves away from their legacy business of internet search.
Data and connectivity are opening new avenues for innovation in the automotive industry, and BlackBerry and auto companies share a common vision to provide automakers and developers with optimal data so that they can deliver new services to consumers.
The tie-up with Baidu caused the stock to shoot higher by 17.3% at $21.15 in premarket trading.
This move broadens the company's use of BlackBerry’s operating system in its "Apollo" autonomous driving open platform.
Under the expanded partnership, Baidu’s high-definition map will be integrated with BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino real-time operating system.
The integrated system will be mass-produced and available on Guangzhou Automobile Group electric vehicle arm’s upcoming GAC New Energy Aion models.
The BlackBerry QNX software scores high in functional safety, network security, and reliability, while Baidu has achieved long-term development in artificial intelligence and deep learning.
GAC is one of China’s largest automakers. It also manufactures the Hycan 007 cars under a joint venture with EV startup NIO.
This is just an example of how BB is running to the part of the end zone where the ball is going to be thrown unlike other dinosaur tech like IBM.
The company’s stock has recently been included in strong dialogue on online message boards such as Reddit, which like GameStop (GME) has felt a sharp appreciation in price or probably better describes as rocket boosters.
GME is up 100% just today which can only be described as an epic short squeeze.
At a strategic level, the success of BlackBerry’s stock can be attributed in part to the strategic shift to cybersecurity and the Internet of Things.
The shift away from handheld devices is long due, and so what's really happening is the market is putting its stamp of approval on this new shift of BlackBerry away from its old business model and what it’s doing now.
BB holds more patents than any other company in Canada.
BlackBerry shares spiked as much as 20% after settling a patent infringement suit with Facebook.
BlackBerry first targeted Facebook with a lawsuit back in 2018, filing a 117-page complaint accusing the social network of infringing on Blackberry's innovative messaging technology.
The settlement removed any litigious uncertainty offering another clear pathway for the stock to rise.
The biggest strategic overhaul has been its recent partnerships with Amazon (AMZN) Web Services in December to use its cloud services.
They signed an agreement with Amazon for BB to develop a software platform that allows automakers to read vehicle sensor data, improving cloud-connected vehicles' performance.
Blackberry announced it sold 90 patents to China's largest phone manufacturer, Huawei.
Automakers can use this information to create responsive in-vehicle services that enhance driver and passenger experiences.
BlackBerry IVY addresses a critical data access, collection, and management problem in the automotive industry.
Cars and trucks use many different parts, with each vehicle model comprising a unique set of proprietary hardware and software components.
These components, which include an increasing variety of vehicle sensors, produce data in unique and specialized formats.
The highly specific skills required to interact with this data, as well as the challenges of accessing it from within contained vehicle subsystems, limit developers’ abilities to innovate quickly and bring new solutions to market.
BlackBerry IVY will solve these challenges by applying machine learning to that data to generate predictive insights and inferences, making it possible for automakers to offer in-vehicle experiences that are highly personalized and able to take action based on those insights.
Although many legacy tech companies get caught in the weeds, never to grow again. BB has sorted out its vision and is well on its way to delivering shareholder value back to the end investor.
Even though I would say the short-term price action in BB is at this point euphoric, it would serve any tech investor well to dip their toe into this stock long term when there is a pullback.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 8, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY I SOLD SHORT APPLE),
(AAPL), (FB), (SNAP), (SQ), (AMZN), (BB), (NOK)
Apple (AAPL) needs Jack Dorsey to save them.
That is what the steep sell-off is telling us.
Lately, Apple’s tumultuous short-term weakness is indicative of the broader mare’s nest that large-cap tech is confronting, and the unintended consequences this monstrous profit-making industry causes.
These powerful tech companies have sucked out the marrow of the innovative bones that the American economy represents, applying this know-how to pile up ceaseless profits to the detriment of the incubational start-ups that used to be part and parcel of the DNA of Silicon Valley.
In the last few years, the number of unicorns has been drying up rapidly on a relative basis to decades of the ’90s and the early 2000s – this is not a startling coincidence.
The mighty FANGs were once fledging start-ups themselves but have become entrenched enough to the point they transcend every swath of culture, society, and digital wallet now.
Becoming too big to boss around has its competitive advantages, namely harnessing the hoards of data to destroy any competition that has any iota of chance of uprooting their current business model.
And if these large tech companies can “borrow” the innovation that these smaller firms cultivate, they wield the necessary resources to undercut or just decapitate the burgeoning competition.
The net effect is that innovation has been crushed and the big tech companies are milking their profits for what its worth.
Fair?
Not at all.
But tech has never been a fair game and going to a gun fight with a knife is why militaries incessantly focus on technology to accrue a level of firepower head and shoulders above their peers.
The career of Co-Founder of Jet.com, an e-commerce platform bought by Walmart for $3.3 billion in 2016, perfectly illustrates my point.
Marc Lore was born from the mold of leaders such as Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos, leveraging the wonders and functionality of the e-commerce platform to construct a thriving business empire.
Quidsi, an e-commerce company, was founded by Marc Lore on the back of Lore maxing out personal credit cards to rent trucks to head to wholesale stores up and down the East coast to buy diapers, wipes, and formula in large quantities.
Under the umbrella of Quidsi, diapers.com and soap.com were successful e-commerce businesses and a segment that Amazon hadn’t cracked yet.
CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos identified Lore as a mild threat to his low-end pricing, high-volume business empire.
Yes, this was a market grab, but to avoid a looming and an escalating price war, Amazon bought Quidsi for $500 million and $45 million of debt leaving Lore with millions after repaying earlier investors but effectively neutering Lore and putting him out to pasture.
The best way to ensure there is not another Jeff Bezos is for Jeff Bezos to buy out the upcoming Jeff Bezos before he can get close enough to go for the kill.
While both Bezos and Lore extolled the acquisition with pleasantries, Lore later described it as a glass half empty scenario akin to a mourning.
Getting a golden parachute-like payment for innovation is the best-case scenario for these up and coming stars of tech.
Others aren’t as lucky.
The castle that Bezos built and this type of reaction to stunting competition cannot be quantified and has a net negative effect on the overall level of innovation in the tech sector.
Then there is the worst-case scenario for tech companies such as Snapchat (SNAP). They have been courted numerous times by Facebook (FB) and offered sweetened deals that most people would salivate over.
Each rebuff followed a further Facebook retrenchment onto Snapchat’s territory hoping that they would gradually tap out from this vicious headlock.
In return, Snapchat has had the Turkish carpet pulled out from underneath them and most of their in-house innovation has been borrowed by Facebook’s subsidiary social media platform Instagram.
During this time span, Snapchat’s share price has nosedived and the defiant Snapchat management has lost the momentum and bravado that was emblematic to their business model.
Innovation has also been strangled in Venice, California as declining usership has been partly due to a lack of fresh features and an emphasis on profit creation instead of innovation that led to a botched redesign and sacking of 100 engineers.
Then there is that one's company, two's a crowd and three's a party and Snapchat’s growth model trailed Facebook and Twitter who took advantage of the era of zero regulation to build usership and brand awareness.
Snapchat was late to the feast and has suffered because of it.
The climate and mood for social media have significantly soured in the past six months and have tainted this whole niche sector with one toxic stroke with a brushstroke that has encapsulated any company within two degrees of this sector.
So where do the innovative problems start with Apple?
Right at the top with CEO Tim Cook.
Apple is known for brilliantly rewriting history and not fine-tuning it.
This is why I have preached the emphatic value of erratic but visionary leaders such as Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.
They take big risks and do not apologize for their smoking weed on podcasts and laugh about it.
Investors put up with these shenanigans because these leaders understand the scarcity value of themselves.
They don’t play it safe even if profits are the easiest option.
To save Apple, Apple would need to hire Square and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey to innovate out of this mess.
The stock would double from here because Dorsey would bring back the innovative juices that once permeated through the corridors in Cupertino through Job’s genius ideas.
Under Cook’s tutelage, Apple has made boatloads of cash, but they were going to do that anyway because of Steve Job’s creations.
However, Cook has presided over China rapidly encroaching on its revenue source and is over-reliant on iPhone revenue.
They had years to develop something new but now China is beating Apple at its own game.
Not only has the smartphone market sullied, but so has the relative innovation that once saw every iPhone iteration vastly different from the prior generation.
The petering out of innovative smartphone features has gifted time to the Chinese to figure out how to snatch iPhone loyalists in China with vastly improved devices but at a way lower price point.
The erosion of Samsung’s market share in China should have been a canary in the coal mine and China is in the midst of replicating this same phenomenon in India too.
And I would argue that this would have never happened if Steve Jobs was still alive.
Jobs would have reinvented the world two times over by now with a product that doesn’t exist yet because that is what Jobs does.
As it is, Cook, a great operation officer, is a liability and probably should still be an operations manager.
Cook blared the sirens in early January with a public interview saying that revenue would drop by $9 billion.
This was the first profit warning in 16 years and won’t be the last if Cook retains his position.
Cook has steered the mystical Apple brand careening into the complex dungeon of communist China and was late to react.
Jobs would act first and others would have to react to his decisions, a staple of innovation.
Sailing Apple’s ship into the eye of the China storm stuck out like a sore thumb once Trump took over.
Adding insult to injury, consumers are opting for cheaper Android-based phones that function the same as iPhones.
The 10% of quality that Apple adds to smartphones isn’t enough to persuade the millions of potential customers to pay $1000 for an iPhone when they can get the same job done with a $300 Android version.
Cook badly miscalculated that Apple would be able to leverage its luxury brand to convince prospective buyers that iPhones would be a daily fixture and can’t-miss product.
Even though it was in 2010, it isn’t now.
The type of price points Apple is offering for new iPhone iterations means that this version of the iPhone should be at least 35% or 40% better than the previous version giving the impetus to customers to trade-up.
Sadly, it’s not and Cook was badly caught out.
Therefore, it is confusing that Apple didn’t apply more of its mountain of capital and luxurious brand status to cobble together a game-changing product.
Cook could have put his stamp on the Apple brand and might not have the chance now.
Cook being an “operations guy” has gone to the well too many times and the narrative and direction of Apple is a big question mark going forward.
This is the exact time needed for some long-term vision.
What does this all mean?
The shares’ horrific sell-off means that it is in line for some breathing room from the relentless downward price action.
However, unless the geopolitical tornados can subside, Apple debuts a Steve Jobs-esque bombshell of a product, or Square (SQ) CEO Jack Dorsey takes over the reins in Cupertino, the share price has limited upside in the short-term.
Apple will not have the momentous and breathtaking gap ups until something is fundamentally changed in the house that Steve Jobs built and that is what the tea leaves are telling us.
This has led me to execute a deep-in-the money put spread to take advantage of this limited upside.
Apple is a great long-term hold, but even Cook is threatening this premise.
As Cook is stewing in his office pondering his uncertain future, he forgets what it was that got Apple to the top of the tech ladder – innovation and lots of it.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter ranks innovation as the most important input and x-factor a tech company can possess.
Steve Jobs understood that, yet, failed to pass on this hard-learned but important lesson to his protégé.
If Apple stays on the same track, they risk being the next Nokia (NOK) or Blackberry (BB).
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 9, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY SNAPCHAT IS GOING DOWN THE SOCIAL MEDIA DRAIN),
(SNAP), (FB), (NFLX), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (TWTR), (BB)
Companies this small should be growing.
Growth companies and tech go hand in hand, especially at the incubation stage where there is little resistance hindering growth.
The law of numbers dictate that small companies only need marginal gains to generate high growth in terms of percentages.
Once a company becomes as big as Amazon (AMZN), it becomes harder to move the needle.
Snapchat (SNAP), which is in the same social media game as Facebook, is vastly smaller than the incumbent that hoovers up the digital ad dollars.
Facebook (FB) boasts 1.47 billion daily active users (DAU) and is one of the members of a powerful digital ad duopoly along with Alphabet.
Snapchat added 4 million net (DAU)s in Q1 2018 and blew its chance for sequentially increasing usership by losing 4 million (DAU)s last quarter.
The stock sold off hard in after-hours trading, down 11% at one point but rebounded big time with the earnings commentary with Snapchat revealing guidance for the first time.
Snap opened the next trading day demonstrably lower reflecting the disenchantment of investors.
Evan Spiegel's creation has really had a hard go of it lately. The app redesign was a cataclysmic failure of epic proportions denting the popularity of this app.
The fallout was sacking 100 engineers.
Overall, there were some positive takeaways from the earnings report, mainly, the revenue beat was satisfying, and profitability shone through with average revenue per user (ARPU) shooting up 34% YOY.
Another victory was the boost in ad revenue, up 48% YOY, which is the main driver of revenue in the company.
The hairiest issue with this company is the fundamentals are excruciatingly apathetic.
Stagnating usership growth at this stage is a red flag.
Social media stocks were bashed in recent trading sessions with Twitter (TWTR) dropping from $46 to $31 because of diminishing usership and soft guidance.
The amount of monthly active users dropped from 338.5 million to 335 million, and financial guidance was brought down a few notches.
Twitter has made a poignant attempt to clean up its system from the debris molding around the edges.
To "improve the health" of the Twitter platform, Twitter purged 6% of all accounts rooting out the influences undesirable to its ethos.
Social media companies must take the initiative to protect its platforms, instead of being a silent bystander to a stabbing in a dark alley.
Facebook was the mother of all drops in the social media space collapsing from an all-time high of $218 to $171, a drop in one trading day.
Guidance tore apart this stock after a rapid run-up to the earnings report that saw unbelievable strength rising almost every day.
Poor guidance reflects the ill-effects of the recently enacted General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which tainted the European numbers.
The epicenter of data regulation has crimped profitability and popularity of social media in the Eurozone.
If Facebook and Twitter are facing tough short-term headwinds, then imagine how Snap feels.
They are the small fish in the big pond, and they are running out of places to hide.
Every new user Instagram picks up is one less potential user missed for Snapchat.
Let me remind you that Instagram is boosting its monthly average usership (MAU) 5% per year.
Instagram recently surpassed the 1 billion (MAU) mark after eclipsing the 800 million mark in September 2017.
Instagram added 200 million users, more than the entire (DAU) for Snap, in 11 months.
Big trouble for Snap.
Effectively, Snap is the inferior version of Instagram for young kids and that narrative does not bode well for the future.
For every $1 Snapchat spends, it earns -$6 on that $1. Kids aren't the biggest distributors of wealth. It would help if Snap matured its interface to accommodate older millennials who are tech savvy to boost its average revenue per user.
As it stands, Facebook earns $9 per daily active user while Snapchat earns a smidgeon over $1 per daily active user.
I cannot say that Facebook is a quality platform, but it has successfully monetized the platform.
What's more, CEO Evan Spiegel blamed the drop in usership on the redesign.
Yes, the redesign didn't help, but the usership would have dropped anyway because of draconian data laws in Europe and the general malaise stigmatized toward current social media platforms.
Management is not executing effectively at Snap, and it is out of touch with its core base without opening up new sources of growth.
If a company redesigns an app, enhance the app, do not make it unusable such as the Snap redesign.
Snap's eggs are all in one basket. And that basket is shrinking in the high revenue locations of North America and Europe.
It only earned $2 million from non-digital ad revenue.
As FANGs power on to pass a trillion dollars of market cap, the diversity in their segments are nothing short of impressive.
Snap has no other irons in the fire and is overly reliant in an industry in which it will slowly bleed to death.
The only savior is in reinventing itself, but that takes guts and a bold CEO with a revolutionary strategy.
There is precedence for this transformation such as BlackBerry (BB), one of the original smartphone makers, which has morphed into an autonomous driving technology company.
Another good example is Netflix, which started out in the DVD industry and pivoted to online streaming.
What Snap is doing has its limits and it needs to shake up its business model or slowly rot.
The company must wake up to the stark realization that its platform is not engaging.
Many analysts believed Snap could become half as big as Facebook and that seems highly unlikely.
I have been bearish on Snap for the entire existence of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
And it has been the perfect sell on the rallies stock because of its poor performance, even poorer management, and awful fundamentals.
A telltale sign was the last earnings call.
It was the second quarter in a row of blaming the redesign on bad performance.
If Spiegel underperforms next quarter again - meaning negative growth usership - it will be interesting if he blames the redesign again.
Third times a charm.
Where does this all lead?
Facebook offered to purchase Snapchat after its IPO because management was worried it would steal market share from Instagram.
Snapchat rebuffed the advances and decided to lock horns directly with Instagram.
Well, the David and Goliath battle is playing as most would assume, boding ill for the fate of Snapchat.
Instagram will keep weakening Snapchat moving forward. And Facebook might end up scooping up Snapchat down the road for a discount.
It doesn't look good for Snapchat, and investors should consider shorting this stock after a dead cat bounce.
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Quote of the Day
"The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model and it might not be successful," - said former Apple cofounder Steve Jobs in a Rolling Stone interview, 2003.
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